As the Islamic world awaits the arrival of Ramadan in 2026, anticipation is tinged with scientific skepticism and religious tradition. The annual search for the crescent moon, or hilal, that marks the beginning of the holy month is set to be particularly challenging this year, with astronomers and religious authorities alike warning that the celestial conditions may make its sighting virtually impossible on the expected date—Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
According to a detailed report by 24 ساعة, Muhammad Shawkat Odeh, Director of the International Astronomy Center, has stated unequivocally that sighting the Ramadan crescent on February 17 will be "impossible or nearly impossible" in most Arab and Islamic countries. This holds true whether observers use the naked eye, telescopes, or even advanced astrophotography techniques. The reason? The moon will set before or at the same time as the sun in the vast majority of regions, leaving no window for the illuminated crescent to appear after conjunction.
The specifics are striking. In Jakarta, the moon will set six minutes before sunset; in the United Arab Emirates, it will disappear just a minute before; and in Riyadh, a mere 42 seconds ahead of the sun's descent. For cities like Tabuk and Amman, the moon will vanish precisely as the sun sets, with a surface age of only one hour and 49 minutes and less than one degree separating it from the sun—a configuration that falls short of the minimum requirements for crescent visibility, even with optical aids. In Cairo, while the moon will linger a few minutes after sunset, the angular distance from the sun will be so slight that the crescent remains undetectable.
Layered atop these astronomical hurdles is a rare annular solar eclipse, visible from southern Africa and Antarctica, which will coincide with sunset across the eastern and central Islamic world on the same day. As 24 ساعة explains, "this astronomical event is further evidence that the crescent will not be visible, as the moon will not be present in the sky at sunset." It's a cosmic one-two punch, leaving little hope for traditional moon watchers.
Yet, as Arab Weather notes, the ritual of moon sighting is about more than just calculations. The central conjunction—the birth of the Ramadan crescent—will occur at 3:01 PM local time in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, just hours before sunset. While astronomical data indicates the crescent will be extremely young, fleeting, and perilously close to the sun, making naked-eye observation "nearly impossible according to approved astronomical standards," historical precedent shows that, on rare occasions, observers have managed to spot the crescent in similar circumstances. This persistent hope keeps the tradition alive, even in the face of daunting odds.
Nevertheless, the consensus among astronomers and religious scholars is clear: if it is scientifically confirmed that the moon is not present in the sky at sunset, there is no need to attempt a sighting. This view is supported by the recommendations of the Second Emirates Astronomical Conference, which advises against moon sighting on the 29th day of the lunar month if the moon sets before or with the sun.
Still, not all countries are on the same lunar page. As pointed out by 24 ساعة, some Islamic nations—including Morocco, Mauritania, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, and several non-Arab African countries—will conduct their crescent sighting on Wednesday, February 18, as that will be the 29th day of Shaaban for them. For these countries, the odds improve dramatically. Astronomical calculations suggest that the crescent will be visible to the naked eye or through a telescope in cities such as Jakarta (moon sets 40 minutes after sunset, age 21 hours 55 minutes), Abu Dhabi (58 minutes after sunset, age 24 hours 29 minutes), Mecca (59 minutes after sunset, age 25 hours 37 minutes), Amman and Jerusalem (65 minutes after sunset, age 25 hours 51 minutes), Cairo (64 minutes after sunset, age 26 hours 11 minutes), and Rabat (a generous 73 minutes after sunset, age 29 hours 53 minutes), provided the skies are clear.
The stakes are high, both spiritually and communally. Ramadan, the ninth month of the Islamic lunar calendar, is the most sacred period for Muslims worldwide. As Article 2 explains, "All Muslims are totally devoted to Allah during this time period; they offer their sincere prayers, observe strict fast from dawn to dusk, and engage in various spiritual and religious activities." The fast, known as Roza, is a test of endurance and devotion, requiring abstention from food, drink, and other pleasures from sunrise to sunset. The day begins with Sehri, a pre-dawn meal, and ends with Iftar, a communal breaking of the fast at sunset—a time when families and friends gather in celebration and reflection.
The lunar nature of the Islamic calendar means that Ramadan shifts each year in relation to the Gregorian calendar, and its start is always determined by the sighting of the new crescent moon. As Article 2 details, "Ramadan is scheduled to start in India on February 19, 2026, following the sighting of the moon at Mecca," while in the UAE, fasting is expected to begin on February 18. Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of Ramadan, is anticipated to fall on March 20 or 21, 2026, contingent on the next moon sighting.
This annual uncertainty is both a source of unity and diversity within the global Muslim community. While astronomical calculations provide increasingly precise predictions, the final decision still rests with the authorized committees and the legitimacy of eyewitness testimony. As Arab Weather emphasizes, "the legitimate testimony is the deciding factor for announcing the beginning of Ramadan 2026." This blend of science and tradition underscores the enduring importance of communal consensus in matters of faith.
But the process is not without its pitfalls. Muhammad Shawkat Odeh has warned about the risk of "false testimonies"—mistaken or even fabricated claims of crescent sightings, especially when bright planets like Venus are near the moon's position and can confuse inexperienced observers. Such errors can create confusion and controversy, highlighting the need for both scientific rigor and careful verification by religious authorities.
As the world waits for sunset on February 17, 2026, the question of when Ramadan will begin remains as much a matter of the heavens as it is of human interpretation. Whether the crescent is glimpsed or not, the convergence of faith, science, and tradition ensures that this moment—fraught with anticipation and reverence—retains its place at the heart of the Islamic calendar.
Ultimately, the decision on the start of Ramadan will reflect a delicate balance between celestial mechanics and the lived experience of millions, weaving together the threads of ancient ritual and modern astronomy in a tapestry as complex as the night sky itself.