As the curtain begins to fall on the 2025 NFL regular season, the league landscape is shifting in ways few could have predicted just months ago. With Week 17 in the books and only one week left before the playoffs, the NFL's perennial powers and its struggling franchises have swapped positions in the pecking order, setting the stage for a dramatic 2026 NFL Draft. The Las Vegas Raiders, after a grueling 10-game losing streak capped by a 34-10 defeat to the New York Giants, now sit atop the draft order with a 2-14 record. For a franchise desperate for stability at quarterback, the No. 1 overall pick offers a glimmer of hope in what has been a bleak campaign.
Behind the Raiders, the New York Giants and New York Jets both finished Week 17 with 3-13 records, holding the second and third picks, respectively. The Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals round out the top five, each also at 3-13. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders, both at 4-12, occupy picks six and seven. The New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals, all with 6-10 records, complete the Top 10, with the Chiefs' presence in this group raising more than a few eyebrows around the league.
For the Raiders, the need for a franchise quarterback has never been more pressing. The Geno Smith-Pete Carroll reunion, once seen as a bold experiment, has fizzled, leaving Las Vegas searching for a new face of the franchise. According to multiple mock drafts, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, is the consensus top pick. As one analyst put it, "The Raiders need a QB to build around, and Fernando Mendoza looks like he’s got what it takes to come run the point effectively." His combination of poise, athleticism, and leadership has scouts buzzing, and with the Raiders' offense in desperate need of direction, Mendoza could be the answer fans in Las Vegas have been craving.
The drama doesn't end with the Raiders. The Giants, who handed the Raiders that critical loss, now have a fascinating decision to make with the No. 2 pick. While they appear to have their quarterback of the future in Jaxson Dart, the possibility of trading down for a "king’s ransom of draft picks and players" is on the table. If they stand pat, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese is a projected target—a player described as an "impact player," though some question whether he’s a worthy top pick for the Giants' current needs.
Across town, the Jets are once again in quarterback purgatory. With the No. 3 pick, they are projected by some to select Oregon's Dante Moore Jr., while others see Alabama's Ty Simpson as a possibility at No. 4. The Jets' struggles at quarterback have been well documented, and as one source noted, "If they had even semi-competent quarterback play for the majority of the season, they probably could have won seven or eight games." The pressure is on for New York's front office to finally solve the most important position in football.
The Titans and Cardinals, both with 3-13 records, have their own crossroads to navigate. Tennessee, who invested last year’s top pick in Cam Ward, is projected to add a dynamic weapon in Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could be eyeing Miami (FL) edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., with the organization seemingly ready to move on from the Kyler Murray era. Bain’s "pure edge" skillset addresses Arizona’s long-standing struggles in building a reliable defense.
Turning to the Browns and Commanders, both franchises find themselves just outside the top five. Cleveland’s offensive line woes have been a recurring theme, and Miami (FL) tackle Francis Mauigoa is a popular projected pick. For Washington, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is also in the mix, with his versatility as a linebacker and edge rusher fitting the Commanders’ defensive needs.
Perhaps the most shocking development of the draft order is the Kansas City Chiefs’ fall to the ninth overall pick. The Chiefs, reigning AFC champions and a fixture in the postseason, have not been this close to a top pick in years. Their Christmas Day loss sealed their 6-10 record, putting them in unfamiliar territory. With superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes recovering from a torn ACL, the Chiefs are expected to use their high draft position to jumpstart a new era. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is a name generating buzz, described as a "dynamic playmaker" who could "usher in a new era for Patrick Mahomes (once he returns)." The Chiefs' front office faces critical decisions on both sides of the ball, but Love’s talent could revolutionize their ground game.
Rounding out the top ten, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected to select Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. The Bengals’ defense struggled to create game-changing plays this season, and Downs’ versatility both in coverage and as a returner could provide the spark they need. As one analyst succinctly put it, "The Bengals don't have anyone in tow that can make the type of impact on the back end that Downs could."
Beyond the Top 10, the draft order reflects the turbulent nature of the 2025 season. The Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Minnesota Vikings all find themselves in the middle of the pack, each with unique questions to answer at quarterback and other premium positions. The Rams, for instance, hold the Falcons’ pick after Atlanta was eliminated in Week 14, while the Dolphins’ late-season quarterback switch from Tua Tagovailoa to Quinn Ewers signals potential upheaval in Miami.
For many teams, the end of the 2025 season marks the beginning of renewed hope. Premium positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, cornerback, wide receiver, and edge rusher are at a premium in the 2026 class, but as one draft analyst observed, "beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder." With big names like Arch Manning returning to school and several teams pondering blockbuster trades, the months leading up to the draft promise no shortage of intrigue.
As Week 18 approaches, the draft order could still see some last-minute shuffling. If the Raiders were to defeat the Chiefs and the Giants were to lose to the Cowboys, New York could reclaim the top spot, adding another twist to an already unpredictable draft season. Sixteen teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and for their fans, all eyes are now on April’s proceedings.
One thing is certain: the 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent memory. With storied franchises like the Raiders, Giants, and Chiefs picking near the top, and a new generation of talent set to enter the league, the offseason drama is just getting started. The race for the No. 1 pick is nearly over, but the real drama may only be beginning.
