At a time when global security feels more fragile than ever, Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered a stark message: the world is already caught in a nuclear arms race, and the fate of the last remaining major arms control treaty between Russia and the United States hangs in the balance. Speaking at a summit of former Soviet states in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on October 10, 2025, Putin made it clear that Moscow would not be overly concerned if the United States opts not to extend the New START treaty—a cornerstone of nuclear arms limitation—set to expire in February 2026.
The New START treaty, first signed in 2010, has been a bulwark against unchecked nuclear proliferation between the two superpowers. It limits each side to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 delivery systems, including missiles and bombers, and allows for mutual inspections and data exchanges to ensure compliance. Yet, as the clock ticks down to its expiration, the future of this framework is increasingly uncertain.
"Will these few months be enough to make a decision on an extension? I think it will be enough if there is goodwill to extend these agreements. And if the Americans decide they don't need it, that's not a big deal for us," Putin said at the summit, according to Reuters. The Russian leader did not mince words about the consequences, adding, "But that would be a shame, because then there would be nothing left in terms of deterrence in the area of strategic offensive weapons."
Putin’s remarks come amid a backdrop of heightened tensions between Russia and the NATO alliance, with the war in Ukraine continuing to fuel distrust and accusations on both sides. Western allies have charged Russia with airspace violations, sabotage plots, and cyberattacks—allegations that Moscow flatly denies. As both sides dig in, the risk of a direct confrontation has become, in the words of many analysts, alarmingly plausible.
During his press conference, Putin revealed that Russia is not standing still when it comes to nuclear capabilities. In fact, he announced that Moscow expects to unveil a new weapon for its vast nuclear arsenal—the largest in the world—very soon. "The sophistication of our nuclear deterrence systems is higher than that of any other nuclear state," Putin said, as reported by state news agency Tass. "And we are developing all of this very actively." He emphasized, "What I spoke about in earlier years is all progressing—we are bringing it to perfection."
According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia currently holds a total inventory of 5,459 nuclear warheads, with 1,718 deployed. The United States, by comparison, has 5,177 warheads, with 1,770 deployed. These numbers underscore the sheer destructive potential still held by both nations—enough to shape the fate of the planet many times over.
Putin was candid about the realities of the global nuclear landscape. "A certain kind of arms race is indeed underway," he said, according to Newsweek. He also warned that unnamed countries appear to be preparing for nuclear weapons testing, a move that could shatter decades-old taboos and spark a dangerous escalation. "There's always a temptation to test the effectiveness of the same fuel that's been in missiles for many, many years. All of this is being simulated on computers, and experts believe that is sufficient, but some of these same experts believe repeat tests are necessary," he explained, as quoted by Reuters.
He continued, "So some countries are thinking about it; as far as I know, they're even preparing, and that's why I said that if they do it, we'll do the same." The implication was unmistakable: if another nation breaks the long-standing moratorium on nuclear testing, Russia will respond in kind. "That would be good from a security perspective, but bad from the point of view of curbing the arms race," Putin admitted. He added, "But in this same context, extending the New START Treaty for at least a year is a good idea."
Despite the tough rhetoric, Putin did leave the door open for dialogue. He stated that Russia is willing to voluntarily keep the limits defined under the New START treaty if Washington agrees to do the same. "We're ready to negotiate if it's acceptable and useful for the Americans. If not, then no," he said, according to Reuters. As of October 11, 2025, however, the United States has not yet formally responded to Russia's offer.
The uncertainty surrounding New START has alarmed arms control advocates and security experts alike. The treaty’s expiration would mean the end of mutual inspections and the loss of transparency measures that have helped prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations for over a decade. Without these guardrails, the risk of a renewed and more dangerous arms race increases significantly.
Security analysts warn that if one country resumes nuclear testing, it could trigger a domino effect, prompting others to follow suit. This would raise geopolitical tensions even further, at a time when relations between nuclear-armed states are already strained. "A test by one country would have a knock-on effect, prompting other nuclear powers to do the same, raising geopolitical tensions further from their current, already high, levels," Reuters noted.
The Kremlin, for its part, has signaled a willingness to uphold New START's obligations for a year after its expiration, provided there is reciprocity from the U.S. However, with no new formal agreement in place and no clear sign of progress from Washington, the specter of unrestrained nuclear competition looms large.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly called the idea of extending the treaty a "good idea," but as of now, no concrete steps have been taken to secure a new deal or prolong the current one. The Biden administration, meanwhile, has kept its cards close to the chest, refraining from making any formal commitments or public statements on the matter.
For now, the world waits—nervously. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether the last vestiges of nuclear arms control can be preserved, or if a new era of uncertainty and competition will take hold. As Putin put it, "Let everyone think about it." With so much at stake, one can only hope that cooler heads prevail and that the lessons of history are not forgotten.
As the deadline approaches, the fate of the New START treaty remains uncertain, but the message from Moscow is clear: Russia is prepared for whatever comes next, and the world must be ready for the consequences.