In a dramatic turn of events that has captivated international attention, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly admitted that Russian air defense systems were responsible for downing an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet last December, killing 38 people. The confession, made during a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of a regional summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, marks a significant shift in Moscow’s stance after months of denials and diplomatic tension between the two countries.
The incident in question occurred on December 25, 2024, when Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243—an Embraer 190 carrying 62 passengers and five crew members—was en route from Baku to Grozny. As reported by ANSA, La Repubblica, and other leading Italian outlets, the plane disappeared from radar and ultimately crashed near Aktau, a port city on Kazakhstan’s Caspian coast, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. The remaining 29 survived, thanks in large part to the actions of the flight crew.
According to Caliber.az and Eurasianet, the tragedy unfolded after Russian air defenses, on high alert due to escalating Ukrainian drone incursions, fired two anti-aircraft missiles intended for a Ukrainian drone flying over Chechnya. President Putin, in his admission, explained, “The two missiles that were launched did not directly hit the plane but exploded, possibly due to self-destruction, about ten meters away. That is why the destruction occurred: not from combat elements, but from the debris of the missiles.” He further clarified that the missiles were fired in response to Ukrainian drone activity near Grozny, a claim echoed in multiple media reports.
Investigators later determined that shrapnel from a Russian Pantsir-S missile exploded next to the plane mid-flight, striking passengers and crew and causing significant damage to the aircraft’s stabilizers, hydraulics, and trim systems. The pilots attempted to make an emergency landing in Grozny but were refused entry to several Russian airports, officially due to fog, and were instead diverted to Kazakhstan. With the aircraft’s GPS systems reportedly jammed throughout its path above the Caspian Sea, the crew struggled to navigate safely, ultimately crashing near Aktau after running out of options.
Putin’s admission came during a joint press conference with Aliyev in Dushanbe on October 9, 2025. The Russian president stated, “Of course, everything that is required in such tragic cases will be done by the Russian side on compensation, and a legal assessment of all official actions will be given. It is our duty, I repeat once again, to give an objective assessment of everything that happened and to identify the true causes.” This marked the first official acknowledgment by Moscow that its own military systems were to blame, a dramatic reversal from earlier statements that referred only to a “tragic incident” in Russian airspace.
For months following the crash, Moscow had resisted calls to take responsibility. In early 2025, Putin issued what many in Azerbaijan saw as a half-hearted apology, calling the event “a tragic accident” but stopping short of admitting direct fault. This cautious phrasing only fueled public anger in Azerbaijan, where initial mourning quickly turned into frustration and accusations of a cover-up. President Aliyev was especially vocal, accusing Russia of trying to “hush up” the incident and, in July, announcing plans to file lawsuits in international courts against Russia. “We know what happened and we can prove it,” Aliyev declared. “And we know that Russian officials know what happened.”
The diplomatic standoff strained relations between the two countries, with Azerbaijani officials and parliament members openly criticizing Russia for deflecting responsibility. Some even called for severing diplomatic ties, and the incident reignited historical grievances over Russia’s treatment of Azerbaijan, especially as Baku’s support for Ukraine has grown in recent years.
Putin’s remarks in Dushanbe not only signaled a change in tone but also a shift in the power dynamics between the two nations. As Caliber.az noted, Aliyev’s hardline approach appeared to have succeeded in compelling the Kremlin to acknowledge Azerbaijan as an equal partner, rather than a subservient state. A commentary published by the outlet lauded Aliyev for his “firm principle and a willingness to go all the way, balanced by a pragmatic and carefully calculated approach.” The commentary concluded, “President Ilham Aliyev can celebrate yet another success. Once again, he has achieved the desired result and upheld the national dignity of our country.”
Aliyev, for his part, accepted Putin’s olive branch, expressing gratitude for the Russian leader’s willingness to address the issue directly. He indicated that bilateral relations, which had experienced a flash freeze over the shootdown, could now begin to thaw. “You are personally overseeing the investigation, we had no doubt in its objectivity,” Aliyev told Putin during their meeting, as quoted in video footage shared by Viory Video.
The admission also brings broader implications for aviation safety and the conduct of military operations near civilian airspace. The tragedy has reignited debate about the risks of flying over conflict zones, echoing the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Aviation experts warn that as drone warfare expands, the chances of misidentification and accidental strikes on civilian aircraft are increasing. The crash underscores just how far the consequences of the Ukraine conflict have spread, rendering airspace near Russia’s southern regions increasingly hazardous.
For the families of the victims, Putin’s pledge to provide compensation and conduct a full, objective investigation offers some measure of closure, though many questions remain. “It is our duty to give an objective assessment of everything that happened and to identify the true causes,” Putin emphasized, promising transparency and cooperation with Azerbaijani authorities. Moscow’s willingness to conduct a legal assessment of all officials involved and to compensate victims’ families is seen as a necessary, if belated, step toward accountability.
Analysts suggest that Moscow’s change in stance reflects both diplomatic necessity and geopolitical calculation. Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus has waned since the start of the war in Ukraine, and with Azerbaijan emerging as an increasingly independent actor—balancing ties between Russia, Turkey, and the European Union—Moscow can ill afford further alienation of Baku. The admission, while rare, is therefore as much about restoring regional stability as it is about righting a tragic wrong.
As the investigation continues and compensation efforts begin, the incident stands as a sobering reminder of the dangers posed by modern warfare to civilians and the importance of transparency and accountability in international relations.