Thursday night’s Big Ten basketball matchup between the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers and the No. 13 Michigan State Spartans is shaping up to be one of the most consequential games of the college hoops regular season. With both teams entering the contest tied for fourth place in the conference standings at 22-5 overall and 12-4 in Big Ten play, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner not only secures a tie for second place but also positions itself for the coveted multiple byes in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament—a serious advantage in a league with as many teams as the Big Ten now boasts.
The setting couldn’t be more electric: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, with its 14,240-seat capacity, is expected to be packed to the rafters. Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, and while there’s no traditional TV broadcast, fans can catch all the action streaming exclusively on Peacock Premium. For those tuning in via radio, the Purdue Global Radio Network will have Rob Blackman and Bobby Riddell on the call.
This is the only regular season meeting between Purdue and Michigan State in 2026, adding another layer of intrigue. Historically, the Boilermakers have had the upper hand, leading the all-time series 77-57 and boasting a dominant 47-18 record at home. Since 2020, Purdue has gone 8-2 against the Spartans, with an average point differential of 8.5 points per game. Recent trends also favor the Boilermakers: they’ve won seven straight home games against Michigan State since the 2014-15 season and are 5-2 against the spread at Mackey during that stretch.
But don’t count out Tom Izzo’s Spartans just yet. Michigan State comes in hot, fresh off a 66-60 victory over Ohio State, while Purdue is riding high after a resounding 93-64 win over Indiana. Both teams are 4-3 against ranked opponents this season, and both have identical 4-3 records on the road and at home, respectively. The parity is remarkable, and it’s no wonder that KenPom’s rankings have Purdue at No. 7 nationally and Michigan State at No. 9. FTN Fantasy’s rankings echo that sentiment, placing Purdue at No. 7 and Michigan State at No. 10. The betting line reflects this razor-thin margin, with Purdue favored by 6.5 points on DraftKings and the over/under hovering around 142.5 points.
On the court, Purdue is led by dynamic guard Braden Smith, who’s been the team’s top scorer and floor general all season. According to SportsLine’s projection model, Smith is expected to lead the Boilermakers with 16 points, while three other Purdue players are projected to score at least 11.7 points each. The Boilermakers’ methodical pace and efficient shooting have been their calling cards, and they’ll look to control the tempo to keep Michigan State’s transition game in check.
For the Spartans, the key will be the play of Jeremy Fears Jr., their standout guard who thrives in up-tempo situations. Fears is projected to notch around 14.3 points, according to SportsLine, but oddsmakers are slightly less optimistic, setting his over/under at 15.5 points. Covers.com analysts predict a down night for Fears, citing Purdue’s ability to slow the pace and limit fast-break opportunities. "The Purdue Boilermakers' methodical pace and efficient shooting immediately put Jeremy Fears Jr. and the Michigan State Spartans in sand," one analyst noted. If Purdue can force the Spartans into halfcourt sets and push them to the perimeter, Fears may struggle to find his rhythm.
Jaxson Kohler, Michigan State’s best outside shooter, could be a wild card. If Purdue collapses the paint to contain Fears’ drives, Kohler may find himself with plenty of open looks beyond the arc. Some betting projections even include Kohler to make over 1.5 three-pointers as part of same-game parlays.
Defense will undoubtedly play a huge role in this matchup. Michigan State is known for its aggressive on-ball perimeter defense, a hallmark of Tom Izzo’s coaching philosophy. The Spartans will aim to shrink possessions and keep the game within reach, especially if they can limit Purdue’s transition opportunities. On the flip side, Matt Painter’s Boilermakers have been disciplined with the basketball, rarely coughing up turnovers and forcing opponents to grind out possessions in the halfcourt.
The betting community is split. Some experts are parlaying the Under with taking the points on Michigan State, believing that a slower pace favors the Spartans’ chances of keeping it close. "If possessions do shrink, that only strengthens the Spartans’ chances of staying within six points," wrote Erich Richter for the New York Post, who predicted Michigan State +5.5 and Under 140.5 total points. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model simulated the game 10,000 times and projects a high-scoring affair, with the Over hitting in more than 70% of simulations and a combined total of 151 points. The Over has also hit in four of the last eight meetings between these two teams, as well as in six of the last seven Michigan State games and five of the last eight Purdue contests.
Beyond the numbers, this game features two legendary coaches in Matt Painter and Tom Izzo, each with a knack for getting the most out of their squads when it matters most. The Big Ten’s expanded tournament format makes every regular season game count, but this one feels especially pivotal. The winner moves into a tie for second place in the conference, keeping hopes alive for a top seed and a deep run in March.
Fans unable to snag a seat at Mackey Arena will have to stream the action on Peacock Premium, as there’s no traditional TV broadcast. The exclusivity of the streaming arrangement has sparked plenty of online discussion, with some fans lamenting the lack of a cable or network TV option. Still, the anticipation for this game is sky-high, and Boilermaker faithful are expected to bring the noise in hopes of extending Purdue’s home dominance over the Spartans.
As tip-off approaches, all eyes will be on West Lafayette. Will Purdue make it eight straight home wins over Michigan State? Can Jeremy Fears Jr. and the Spartans break through against a Boilermaker defense that’s stifled them in recent years? One thing’s for sure: with Big Ten tournament seeding and bragging rights on the line, both teams are primed for a battle that could go down to the wire.
The action tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET, and with both teams so evenly matched, fans should buckle up for a classic Big Ten showdown. The outcome is still very much up in the air, but one certainty remains—Thursday night’s clash at Mackey Arena will have major ramifications for the road to March Madness.