Across the UK and the United States, prison systems are facing mounting pressure as populations surge past official capacity, sparking renewed debate over the future of incarceration and the urgent need for reform. From England and Wales to Scotland and Colorado, officials, advocates, and those inside the system are grappling with overcrowding, rising violence, and the limits of emergency measures. The question on everyone’s mind: how can these systems adapt before the crisis deepens further?
In England and Wales, the appointment of David Lammy as Justice Secretary on September 5, 2025, has brought fresh attention to the issue. Lammy, who also assumes the role of Deputy Prime Minister, is no stranger to the debate. Back in 2020, as Labour’s shadow justice secretary, he voiced clear opposition to building more prisons, telling Inside Time, “We’ve gone up from a prison population of about 45,000 in 1995 to over 80,000 now. We are locking a lot of people up… I don’t believe we should be building more prisons, I think we should be looking at reforming the estate we’ve currently got.”
But times—and policies—have shifted. Despite Lammy’s earlier reservations, the current Labour government is pushing ahead with plans to build 14,000 additional prison places, a move they argue is necessary to accommodate projections that the number of prisoners will reach 100,000 by the end of the decade. As of early September, there were more than 88,400 people incarcerated in England and Wales, just shy of last year’s record high, and fewer than 1,000 spaces remain in the male prison estate. The pressure is palpable, and some fear another round of emergency early releases may be imminent, following similar schemes in 2023 and 2024.
Lammy’s new in-tray is daunting, to say the least. His predecessor, Shabana Mahmood, recently introduced a Sentencing Bill aimed at reducing the prison population by 7,500. The bill proposes that most sentences under 12 months be served in the community and accelerates the earliest release point for many inmates from 40% to 33% of their sentence. However, the reforms will take time to pass and implement, and with the prison estate already stretched thin, the risk of short-term crisis remains high.
Lammy’s own history as a barrister and author of a 2017 review into racial bias in the justice system adds another layer to his appointment. Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust, welcomed the move, stating, “He brings a wealth of experience and a clear commitment to reform, not least through his work to address the disproportionate treatment of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people in the criminal justice system.” Sinha emphasized the critical moment facing the system, adding, “This bill represents an important opportunity to move away from the failed cycle of overcrowding and crisis management, and towards a more proportionate and effective system that prioritises rehabilitation and safer communities.”
Yet, the challenge is far from unique to England and Wales. North of the border, Scotland’s prisons are also bursting at the seams. As of September 9, 2025, the prison population stood at 8,359—well above the designed capacity of 7,900. Ten prisons have been flagged at “red risk” status, the highest security concern level, according to STV News. HMP Barlinnie, a Victorian-era facility, is running at a staggering 140% capacity and often absorbs prisoners diverted from other full jails.
The consequences of overcrowding are stark. Violent incidents have soared, rising from 95 per month in 2022 to 135 per month in 2025. More than a third of Scotland’s prisoners are on remand, some waiting over two years for their day in court. Teresa Medhurst, chief executive of the Scottish Prison Service, described the situation as a “crisis point,” warning, “Safety is more compromised than it would normally be because we are struggling to keep people separate in ways that we would normally do, and we are keeping more people locked up in unsatisfactory conditions for longer.”
Efforts to ease the pressure, such as early release measures that freed 390 prisoners in 2024, have provided only temporary relief. “It did bring the number down, and we anticipated that would have been for around three months, but it only lasted about six weeks,” Medhurst told STV News. The remand population remains stubbornly high, a legacy of pandemic-era backlogs, with some prisoners languishing for years before trial. “Some of them are here and they are innocent – that is the thing people need to remember,” said Jane Louise Tochel, a residential officer at Barlinnie. “Some people are sitting on remand for two years, sometimes more than that.”
Scotland’s Justice Secretary, Angela Constance, acknowledged the scale of the problem, noting on September 9, “Scotland is not alone in facing challenges as a result of a rise in the prison population. There is no single reason for the increase and there is no single solution.” She pointed to recent legislative changes, such as the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 and expanded home detention curfews, as part of a broader strategy. Longer-term reforms await recommendations from an independent Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission due by the end of the year.
Across the Atlantic, Colorado’s prison system is also feeling the strain. As of August 16, 2025, the state’s prison vacancy rate dropped to 1.92%—below the 3% threshold for 30 consecutive days. This triggered provisions in House Bill 18-1410, a bipartisan law passed in 2018, requiring the Department of Corrections to coordinate with the parole board and community corrections to reduce the incarcerated population. The law mandates weekly identification of open beds in halfway houses and requires the parole board to hold hearings for eligible inmates, though not all must be released.
Alonda Gonzalez, spokesperson for the Colorado Department of Corrections, explained to Colorado Newsline, “Beyond these statutory requirements, CDOC actively monitors facilities, adjusts bed assignments and staffing, facilitates transfers, and ensures safe and orderly operations statewide.”
Advocates like Christie Donner of the Colorado Criminal Justice Reform Coalition have pushed for greater transparency and efficiency, noting that hundreds of community corrections beds remain underutilized. “We never really intended for this bill to be big releases,” Donner said. “It was just, can we be efficient? Can we fully utilize community corrections?” She also highlighted the burden on county jails, where people sentenced to state prison are increasingly held for extended periods due to low bed capacity in state facilities.
In July, 17 Colorado sheriffs wrote to Governor Jared Polis, seeking “urgent action” to address the backlog. “County jails were never designed — or funded — to house state inmates for extended periods,” the letter stated. “Yet we’re being forced to expand capacity and stretch already limited staff to accommodate inmates who should be in state custody. This isn’t just unsustainable — it’s unfair to local taxpayers.”
Despite the differences in geography and policy, the stories from England, Scotland, and Colorado echo one another: rising populations, strained facilities, and a search for solutions that balance public safety, rehabilitation, and fiscal responsibility. The coming months will test whether new leadership, legislative reforms, and creative use of community resources can stem the tide—or if the crisis will deepen before real change takes hold.
As the world watches, the urgency for sustainable, humane, and effective approaches to incarceration has never felt more pressing.