A dramatic shift in the world’s climate may be underway as scientists warn that a potentially powerful El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean. According to forecasters and leading climate organizations, this event could rank among the strongest El Nino occurrences on record, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expecting its effects to last at least into the winter of 2026-2027. As the phenomenon takes shape, countries across the globe are bracing for wide-ranging impacts—from droughts and wildfires to floods and food shortages.
El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern, emerges every two to seven years when trade winds over the tropical Pacific weaken. This shift allows warm water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific, an area roughly the size of the continental United States. Though the warming itself is concentrated in one region, its influence is anything but local. As NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director Gavin Schmidt explained to DW, “By changing the tropical atmosphere, you can then change the atmosphere further away across the mid-latitudes, which is why we care about it so much, even though we're thousands and thousands of miles away potentially.”
What makes the 2026 event especially noteworthy is its potential intensity. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany, told DW there’s “real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years.” Atmospheric scientist Brian Tang noted that “the waters are beginning to warm in the central and eastern tropical Pacific,” which is the early signal that forecasters watch as trade winds weaken and warm water builds. Once this process is underway, El Nino can quickly redraw weather patterns—making some regions hotter and drier while bringing torrential rain to others.
The stakes are high. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on the world to treat this as an urgent climate warning. “El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” Guterres said, emphasizing that the added heat could intensify drought and fire risk across Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Amazon rainforest.
Central America is already feeling the pressure. In Honduras, authorities estimate that around 75 municipalities could soon face severe drought conditions. Tegucigalpa, the country’s capital, has declared a water emergency, highlighting the immediate threat to drinking water supplies, agriculture, and hydropower generation. These impacts are not isolated; during El Nino years, parts of Central America, Asia, Africa, and Australia often become hotter and drier, leading to water shortages and increased wildfire risk.
But El Nino’s reach doesn’t end with droughts. Along parts of South America’s Pacific coast, the phenomenon can bring torrential rainfall and destructive flooding. The consequences of such events can persist long after the rain stops or reservoirs run dry—crop failures, damaged infrastructure, and economic losses that can run into the trillions. The 2015-2016 El Nino, for example, left millions of people worldwide in need of food assistance after poor harvests, a stark reminder that the worst effects are often measured in empty markets and strained water systems, not just on weather maps.
Wildfires represent another growing concern. Scientists warn that the current El Nino is likely to increase the risk of severe heat and drought conditions that fuel fires across Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Amazon rainforest. According to DW, the added heat from both El Nino and ongoing climate change could make these wildfires more frequent and intense, threatening ecosystems and communities alike.
El Nino also plays a pivotal role in shaping tropical storm activity. For 2026, scientists expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than average. El Nino conditions tend to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which makes it more difficult for storms to form and intensify. Brian Tang explained, “Usually when we have an El Nino developing, especially during hurricane season, that suppresses clouds, thunderstorms, precipitation and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.” However, fewer storms do not always translate to less danger—any hurricane that does form can still cause catastrophic damage. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, El Nino tends to have the opposite effect, fueling more and stronger storms.
Marine ecosystems are under pressure as well. Warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino can trigger coral bleaching and add stress to reefs already weakened by repeated heat stress linked to climate change. This, in turn, threatens the biodiversity and livelihoods that depend on healthy coral reefs.
Agriculture is not immune, either. In India, mango growers have reported sharply reduced harvests after unusual weather conditions disrupted flowering and fruit development, affecting both supply and income for producers. Such disruptions can ripple through local economies and global supply chains, underscoring the far-reaching consequences of an intense El Nino event.
As for the relationship between El Nino and climate change, scientists say there is no clear evidence that global warming is making El Nino itself stronger or more frequent. However, climate change can amplify the impacts of El Nino. Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told DW, “Climate change can make a severe El Nino drought into an extreme El Nino drought.” A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, while higher temperatures can intensify drought by drying soils more quickly. With global temperatures already near record highs, El Nino events can more easily push those records even higher.
One advantage of El Nino, if it can be called that, is its predictability. The phenomenon develops gradually and can be monitored months in advance. Scientists track ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions, giving governments and communities time to prepare. Long-range forecasts allow authorities to protect harvests, strengthen flood defenses, and improve early warning systems. “We know where it will be unusually wet or dry,” McPhaden said. “There’s plenty of time through these long-range weather forecasts to develop mitigation strategies to avoid some of the worst impacts.”
Despite this, the scale and complexity of El Nino’s effects mean that even the best preparations may not be enough to shield everyone from harm. The coming months will reveal whether this El Nino becomes merely strong or truly historic, but the first signs are already here, and the clock is ticking as the world heads toward another winter shaped by the whims of the Pacific.
This unfolding story is a reminder of the interconnectedness of our planet’s climate—and of the urgent need for vigilance, adaptability, and global cooperation in the face of natural phenomena that, like El Nino, can change the course of lives and livelihoods in a matter of weeks.