The political landscape in Wales is bracing for a seismic shift as the May 2026 Senedd election approaches, with the closure of Port Talbot’s blast furnaces casting a long shadow over the campaigns. The end of traditional steel production at Tata Steel’s Port Talbot plant in September 2024—an event that marked the loss of around 2,000 jobs—has become a lightning rod for public anger and political maneuvering, especially as Plaid Cymru, Labour, and Reform UK jostle for dominance in the polls.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has made no secret of his party’s intent to capitalize on the discontent. Speaking on October 12, 2025, he told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that Labour would not be forgiven in Wales for allowing the closure of the blast furnaces. “Port Talbot would be perhaps the most glaring example where we lost virgin steelmaking capacity at the Port Talbot steelworks – real anger about that, a process started by the Conservatives, of course, finished off by Labour,” he said. The decision to transition the plant to greener steel production from 2027 has done little to mollify those affected, especially as the contrast with government intervention in Scunthorpe’s steel industry remains fresh in voters’ minds. “At the same time they were letting Port Talbot go, they decided that Scunthorpe was deserving of Government help to step in to save primary steel making. They will not be forgotten, forgiven in Wales for doing that,” ap Iorwerth added, according to Nation.Cymru.
The stakes are high for Labour, which has governed Wales since devolution began in 1999. The party is now contending not only with a steel crisis but also with voter fatigue after more than two decades in power. Recent polling suggests a tight race, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK running close behind Labour. Plaid Cymru is positioning itself as a “government-in-waiting,” while Reform UK, under the leadership of Nigel Farage, is making a concerted push for working-class and disaffected voters, particularly across south Wales.
Farage, never one to shy away from bold pronouncements, has pledged to shake up the status quo. During a campaign visit to Caerphilly, he told BBC Politics Wales, “We’re going to bring in fresh thinking. We want to use every devolved power we possibly can to make the lives of small businesses and other bigger businesses easier in Wales. That is what we’ve got to devise for our manifesto coming up for May, to say we’re actually on the side of people working and people having jobs.” While he admitted it was too early to reveal detailed policy pledges, Farage insisted, “All I can promise you is it’ll be very different to the status quo of the last quarter of a century.”
The Port Talbot closure, meanwhile, has become a symbol of broader anxieties about the future of Welsh industry and the responsiveness of political leaders to local concerns. The estimated 2,000 job losses are not just statistics—they represent families and communities whose futures have been upended. The promise of greener steel production starting in 2027 offers hope for some, but for many, the transition feels uncertain and fraught with risk.
Plaid Cymru has seized on this uncertainty, presenting itself as the party of new leadership and fresh ideas. Ap Iorwerth, pressed on whether Plaid would consider a coalition with Labour to keep Reform UK out of government, declined to rule it out but emphasized his party’s ambition to lead a minority government. “We certainly want to keep Reform out, I think, in the interest of Wales,” he told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg. “We would be in a position now if the polls are anywhere near to reflecting what the vote would be to being able to form a minority government of our own. Remember there has never been a majority government in the history of devolution in Wales.”
He outlined Plaid’s priorities: “What we’re doing is offering new leadership for Wales, a new way of doing things … under Plaid Cymru leadership that we haven’t had before.” The party plans to ask other parties to back its programme for government on key issues such as poverty, childcare, and the economy—areas where Plaid claims Labour has lost its way.
Yet, the conversation in Wales is not just about jobs or party allegiances. The question of independence, always simmering beneath the surface, has been brought back into the spotlight by Plaid Cymru. However, ap Iorwerth has been careful to clarify that the 2026 election will not be a referendum on independence. “This isn’t an independence election next year. I don’t think we’re at the point where we have a referendum on independence,” he told the PA news agency. Nevertheless, he pledged to “kick-start” a debate on Welsh independence by establishing a standing commission to explore the country’s constitutional future. “What I see is an ongoing debate on how Wales can reach its potential. It’s not going to be me that makes the call, it’s me that offers leadership in having that debate,” he said.
Meanwhile, Reform UK is making its own pitch to voters who feel let down by both Labour and Plaid. Farage has promised to use “every devolved power” to support business and jobs, and is working with former Conservative Welsh secretary David Jones to build a comprehensive policy platform. The party’s strategy is clear: target working-class and disaffected voters, especially in regions hardest hit by industrial decline. “We’re taking this very, very seriously indeed, but mid-October is too early to give answers to all of these things,” Farage noted, signaling that more concrete promises would follow as the election draws nearer.
The upcoming Caerphilly by-election, scheduled for October 23, 2025, is widely seen as a bellwether for the Senedd election. The contest was triggered by the sudden death of Labour’s Hefin David in August and features a crowded field: Lindsay Whittle for Plaid Cymru, Llyr Powell for Reform UK, Richard Tunnicliffe for Labour, Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, Anthony Cook for Gwlad, Steve Aicheler for the Liberal Democrats, and Roger Quilliam for UKIP. The result will be closely watched for signs of shifting allegiances and the strength of each party’s appeal.
As the campaigns intensify, the future direction of Wales hangs in the balance. Will voters stick with Labour’s long-standing stewardship, opt for Plaid Cymru’s promise of a new way forward, or take a chance on Reform UK’s pledge to upend the status quo? With the memory of Port Talbot’s closure still raw and the promise of change in the air, the coming months look set to reshape Welsh politics for years to come.
For many in Wales, the choice is about more than party labels—it’s about who will fight for their communities, protect jobs, and offer a vision for the future that feels both credible and inspiring. As the Senedd election approaches, all eyes will be on Wales to see which path its people choose.
