In the aftermath of the Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections, the political landscape of Central Europe has shifted dramatically. Over the weekend, Andrej Babiš, the leader of the populist ANO (“Yes”) party and former prime minister, scored a decisive victory, capturing roughly 35% of the vote. This margin far exceeded pre-election forecasts and left the incumbent centrist coalition, Spolu (“Together”), trailing at around 23%. According to Reuters, Babiš’s triumph echoes recent trends in Austria, Poland, and Romania, where right-leaning populists have capitalized on economic anxieties, skepticism toward the European Union, and growing migration concerns to surge ahead at the polls.
Babiš’s campaign, emblazoned with the slogan “Strong Czechia” and red baseball caps reminiscent of Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again,” tapped into a wave of discontent over fiscal austerity, rising costs, and the government’s support for Ukraine. While Babiš has stopped short of advocating for Czech withdrawal from the EU or NATO, his opposition to arming Ukraine and to the NATO commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP has resonated with voters weary of foreign entanglements. The Financial Times notes that, unlike in France or Hungary, migration was not the dominant issue for Czech populists, but the country’s substantial support for Ukrainian refugees—an unpopular expense for some—became a flashpoint.
Alongside Babiš’s ANO, two other parties—the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the Motorists for Themselves—secured 7.9% and 6.8% of the vote, respectively. Both are Eurosceptic and part of the Patriots for Europe faction in the European Parliament, which Babiš co-founded with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. The SPD, in particular, has called for referendums on Czech membership in the EU and NATO, underscoring the growing skepticism toward Brussels among some segments of Czech society.
President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general and a staunch supporter of the EU’s consensus on Ukraine, now faces the prospect of appointing Babiš as prime minister. However, he has made it clear that he would oppose any role for the SPD in government due to their openness to leaving the EU and NATO. In a speech on October 1, Pavel warned voters against “Russian attempts to draw Central Europe back under Russian influence,” referencing recent drone incursions in Poland and Romania and the alleged violation of Estonian airspace by Russian military aircraft. Pavel’s resolve to keep Czechia anchored in the Western alliance is likely to be tested as he negotiates with Babiš over the terms of government formation.
The election’s outcome has broader implications for the region. With nationalist-populists now holding significant power in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, the Visegrad group may see a revival of its sovereigntist agenda. As BBC analysis suggests, this could complicate relations with Brussels and pose challenges for Ukraine, as several Visegrad leaders have expressed skepticism about further EU integration and support for Kyiv. Babiš himself has indicated a preference for governing alone with a minority of seats, seeking ad hoc support from other parties—a strategy that will depend on the conditions set by President Pavel.
Babiš’s business interests add another layer of complexity. President Pavel has pledged to scrutinize potential conflicts of interest stemming from Babiš’s considerable wealth and corporate holdings. Meanwhile, allegations of Russian meddling—especially through TikTok and other social media—continue to swirl, though there is little hard evidence that such influence operations were decisive. Critics of Babiš, including centrist and pro-EU voices, argue that he is complacent about the threat Russia poses to European security, a charge he denies.
Public opinion in Czechia is evolving. Polls indicate that a solid majority of citizens now favor a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, even if it means ceding territory—an attitude that cannot be explained solely by Russian propaganda. Two influential former presidents, Václav Klaus and Miloš Zeman, are outspoken Eurosceptics and lukewarm supporters of Ukraine, further reflecting the country’s shifting mood. The current centrist coalition, consisting of Spolu, STAN (mayors and independents), and the Pirates, commands only 42% of the vote, making it unlikely to form a stable government without Babiš’s involvement.
The prospect of “cohabitation”—where the president and prime minister hail from opposing parties—will test Czech institutions. As Politico points out, similar situations in Poland have led to uneasy power-sharing arrangements, with presidents exerting influence over foreign and security policy. In Czechia, the roles are reversed: the president is pro-EU and pro-Ukraine, while the likely prime minister is a populist with a more cautious approach to Brussels and Kyiv. Whether this arrangement leads to deadlock or pragmatic compromise remains to be seen.
Babiš’s victory also raises questions about the future of Czech participation in EU initiatives, such as the bloc’s effort to procure artillery shells for Ukraine—a project spearheaded by President Pavel. Babiš has signaled that he might drop or modify Czech involvement in such schemes, aligning more closely with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who has taken a cautious approach to EU relations, rather than with Orbán’s more confrontational stance. Still, the specter of a more assertive Visegrad group looms, with potential repercussions for the EU’s cohesion and its response to Russian aggression.
International observers are watching closely. The European press and Brussels officials have voiced concern that the rise of populists like Babiš could undermine the bloc’s unity and its support for Ukraine. However, Babiš has repeatedly emphasized that he does not seek to leave the EU or NATO, framing his position as one of pragmatic nationalism rather than outright opposition. “We want a strong Czechia in a strong Europe,” he declared during his victory speech, seeking to reassure both domestic and international audiences.
As coalition negotiations unfold, President Pavel’s insistence on keeping the most Eurosceptic parties out of government may force Babiš to govern with a minority or seek compromise with centrist forces. The coming weeks will determine whether Czechia moves further toward the populist right or finds a new balance between national sovereignty and European solidarity.
The Czech elections are not just a local story—they are a bellwether for the shifting tides of European politics. As the continent grapples with war on its eastern flank, economic uncertainty, and the rise of nationalist sentiment, the choices made in Prague will reverberate far beyond the country’s borders.