Plaid Cymru, the party long associated with Welsh nationalism and the push for greater autonomy, has taken a significant step forward in its campaign for independence. On October 12, 2025, at its annual conference, party delegates overwhelmingly backed a motion to establish a standing commission tasked with engaging the Welsh public on constitutional issues and preparing a crucial white paper that could one day underpin a referendum on independence. But for those hoping for an immediate break from Westminster, the message from party leadership was clear: the journey has just begun, and the destination is not yet in sight.
The new strategy, unveiled in Swansea, represents a marked shift from Plaid Cymru’s previous approach. Under former leader Adam Price, the party’s 2021 manifesto promised a referendum within five years of taking office. Now, with Rhun ap Iorwerth at the helm, Plaid Cymru is setting a more measured pace. "The motion looks to the future... and the need ultimately for a white paper which would set the formal path towards asking the people of Wales in a referendum. We make it clear it is us that should call the referendum when the time is right. But that's not for now or the next government. Our work now is to take the discussion forward on the next steps for Wales's constitutional journey," ap Iorwerth told delegates, as reported by BBC Wales.
This white paper, a detailed document outlining governmental proposals, will not be rushed. Instead, Plaid Cymru plans to begin gathering evidence for it during its first term in office—should it win in 2026. The commission’s remit is broad: it will engage citizens in ongoing dialogue about constitutional issues, research topics relevant to Wales’ governance, and draft the comprehensive white paper on independence. The model follows the precedent set by the Scottish National Party, which published its own white paper ahead of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
The roots of this new approach lie in recent developments within Wales itself. Earlier in 2025, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales concluded that independence was indeed a viable option for the country, though it warned that such a path would involve "hard choices in the short to medium term." The commission also called for the devolution of key powers—such as justice, policing, and rail services—from London to Cardiff, recommendations that Plaid Cymru is keen to see implemented. As the BBC noted, the party’s motion at the conference described the government-backed commission as a "model for engaging people" on constitutional issues, and called for a standing commission to oversee the government commission’s recommendations.
For ap Iorwerth, the stakes could not be higher. Opening his speech in Swansea, he invoked the city’s industrial heritage and framed the current moment as a historic crossroads for Wales. "Today, with a historic nation-building opportunity before us, I’m going to set out the choice facing Wales – two very different futures but only one credible option," he declared, according to The Guardian. He urged voters to join Plaid Cymru on a path that would allow Wales to fulfill its potential, rather than "settle for what we have." Change, he argued, is "inevitable and long overdue."
Yet the party’s new phased approach is as much about political calculation as it is about principle. With the next Senedd election scheduled for May 2026, Plaid Cymru is positioning itself as a government-in-waiting, ready to replace Welsh Labour. Ap Iorwerth was unequivocal in his criticism of Labour’s record, citing the loss of virgin steelmaking in Port Talbot and accusing the party of failing to stand up for Wales. He also warned against the rise of Reform UK, which he claimed would seek to abolish the devolved Senedd altogether.
The motion passed at the conference reflects this pragmatic stance. It states that Wales is "on a journey to independence," with the enhancement of devolution forming part of that path. The standing commission is not just about preparing for a referendum; it’s about sustaining a national conversation, building a robust evidence base, and ensuring that any future decision is rooted in a thorough understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead. As Plaid Cymru sees it, the power to call a referendum should be devolved to Wales, but the timing must be right—dictated by the needs and readiness of the Welsh people, not by arbitrary political deadlines.
For many members and supporters, the shift from the 2021 pledge of a referendum within five years to the current, more gradual approach may feel like a retreat. But party leaders insist it is a necessary recalibration. The commission’s work, they argue, will "kick start the national debate on independence" and ensure that the public is fully engaged and informed. As ap Iorwerth told the conference, "Our work now is to take the discussion forward on the next steps for Wales's constitutional journey."
This long-term vision is not without its critics. Some within the independence movement worry that delaying a referendum risks losing momentum, especially as political winds shift both in Cardiff and Westminster. Others argue that a slower, more consultative approach is essential to building the broad coalition of support needed for such a momentous decision. The experience of Scotland—where the 2014 referendum was preceded by years of public engagement and a comprehensive white paper—looms large in these debates.
Meanwhile, the broader context of devolution in the United Kingdom continues to evolve. Calls for greater autonomy in Wales have grown louder in recent years, particularly as questions around Brexit, economic policy, and public services have exposed the limitations of the current settlement. The recommendation by the Independent Commission for the devolution of justice and policing powers, as well as full control of rail services, underscores the growing appetite for a more assertive Welsh government.
What happens next? If Plaid Cymru wins the 2026 Senedd election, the commission could begin its work in earnest, engaging citizens across Wales in discussions about the nation’s future. The white paper, once completed, would serve as a roadmap for potential independence, setting out the formal steps toward a referendum. But as party leaders have made clear, the decision to hold such a vote will not be rushed. "We make it clear it is us that should call the referendum when the time is right. But that’s not for now or the next government," ap Iorwerth reiterated, according to BBC Wales.
Plaid Cymru’s new strategy marks a turning point in the independence debate, blending ambition with caution and placing public engagement at the heart of its campaign. Whether this approach will ultimately lead to a sovereign Wales remains to be seen, but for now, the nation’s constitutional journey continues—step by careful step.
