The Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream are set to light up PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona, on August 10, 2025, at 6:00 PM ET, in a WNBA showdown that feels every bit like a playoff preview. Both teams sit in the top four of the WNBA standings, and with identical 19-11 records as of August 9, the stakes couldn't be higher. A win tonight edges either side closer to securing one of those prized top-four spots, which means home-court advantage and a smoother playoff path. Who’s ready for some fireworks?
The Dream arrive in Phoenix riding a four-game winning streak, despite a nagging injury cloud hovering over two of their biggest names: Rhyne Howard and Brittney Griner. Their status remains uncertain, but Atlanta has shown remarkable resilience, stringing together victories even without them. It’s been a season of grit and hustle for the Dream, who just dispatched the Chicago Sky 86-65, with Allisha Gray pouring in 25 points and Jordin Canada stuffing the stat sheet with 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Atlanta’s offense is humming, averaging 84.6 points per game—good for fourth in the league—and they’ve managed 85-plus in most outings, even while leaning heavily on Gray’s scoring punch.
On the other side, the Mercury are no slouches. They storm into this contest on a three-game winning streak of their own, all by double digits, including a recent 95-60 demolition of the Indiana Fever. Alyssa Thomas has been the engine, notching her third consecutive triple-double in that game, while DeWanna Bonner chipped in a game-high 23 points. The Mercury have the advantage of full health, with no injuries reported as of August 9, and their trio of Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper is clicking at precisely the right time. Sabally’s been a force, shooting 80.9% from the free-throw line and averaging 17.4 points per game, while Thomas dominates the glass with 8.7 boards per contest.
Let’s talk head-to-head. Atlanta has had Phoenix’s number this season, winning both previous matchups in convincing fashion—95-72 on August 2 and 90-79 on July 24. In fact, the Dream have taken three of the last five meetings, asserting themselves with double-digit victories in those two most recent clashes. Atlanta’s offense has been especially potent against Phoenix, averaging 92.5 points per game in those wins. Still, the Mercury have a history of bouncing back in close, defensive struggles, with their last victories over Atlanta coming in low-scoring affairs: 74-66 on September 4, 2024, and 82-80 on August 24, 2024.
Both squads bring elite credentials on both ends of the floor. Atlanta ranks second in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating, while Phoenix sits sixth offensively and third defensively. The Dream have a slight edge on the boards, pulling down 36.2 rebounds per game (second in the league), compared to Phoenix’s 34.7 (fifth). When it comes to pace, though, it’s a tale of opposites: the Mercury play at the second-fastest tempo in the WNBA, while the Dream are content to slow things down, ranking twelfth in pace. Will Phoenix’s uptempo style disrupt Atlanta’s rhythm, or will the Dream’s methodical approach frustrate the Mercury’s attack?
Individual matchups are set to sizzle. Allisha Gray is having a career year, averaging 18.9 points and shooting 45.3% from the field. She’s scored 21 or more in three straight games and looks poised for another big night. Jordin Canada, the Dream’s steady hand at the point, is dishing out nearly six assists per game and keeps the offense running smoothly. Brionna Jones anchors the interior, pulling down 7.3 rebounds per game and providing a reliable scoring threat in the paint.
For Phoenix, Alyssa Thomas is the ultimate stat-sheet stuffer, with three straight triple-doubles and a habit of crashing the boards—she’s grabbed 10 or more rebounds in eight consecutive games. Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper round out a dynamic trio, with Copper’s slashing and Sabally’s shooting stretching opposing defenses thin. DeWanna Bonner’s recent surge adds yet another dimension to the Mercury’s arsenal, making them a tough out on their home floor, where they boast an impressive 11-4 record this season.
The betting markets are tilting slightly toward Phoenix, with the Mercury favored by 3.5 to 4.5 points and the total set around 164.5. Advanced models project a close contest, with a predicted score of Phoenix Mercury 88, Atlanta Dream 82, and a 57% win probability for the Mercury. Still, with Atlanta’s recent dominance in the series and their ability to win on the road (9-7 away from home), bettors and fans alike are bracing for a game that could swing either way.
Prop bets are drawing plenty of attention. Allisha Gray over 17.5 or even 19.5 points is a popular pick, given her recent form. Alyssa Thomas is expected to hit double-digit rebounds yet again, while Brionna Jones is projected to surpass 13.5 points in the paint. For those watching the total, the consensus leans toward the over, anticipating another high-scoring affair between two of the league’s most efficient offenses.
As for the intangibles, the Dream’s mental toughness has been on full display, overcoming injuries and adversity to keep stacking wins. Phoenix, meanwhile, is thriving with a healthy roster and a renewed sense of urgency as the postseason looms. The Mercury have struggled to beat elite teams like Atlanta this season, but with home-court advantage and momentum on their side, they’re eager to flip the script.
Fans can catch all the action live on NBA TV or stream it via Fubo, with tip-off set for 6:00 PM ET. For those unable to access the broadcast, VPN options are available to ensure no one misses out on this heavyweight clash.
With both teams at near full strength and everything to play for, tonight’s battle could very well be a playoff preview—and perhaps a statement game for whichever side emerges victorious. For now, the action is set, the storylines are rich, and the WNBA world is watching as two of the league’s best collide under the bright Arizona lights.
