As 2026 dawns, the U.S. housing market presents a tale of two regions: the surging, resilient Phoenix metro area and Florida’s cautiously optimistic, yet still sluggish, landscape. Both markets, however, offer a window into the broader national trends—rising home prices, shifting demographics, and the ever-present influence of mortgage rates and migration. According to data released by Phoenix REALTORS® and insights from Florida real estate economists, the year ahead is shaping up to be pivotal for buyers, sellers, and industry professionals alike.
In Greater Phoenix, the numbers are hard to ignore. Closed sales for single-family homes climbed 3.8% in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a particularly strong October showing a 4.9% year-over-year jump—outpacing the national increase of just 1.5%. Nearly 52,000 homes have sold in the region so far this year, and over 51,000 deals remain pending, underscoring the market’s momentum. "Year-to-date closed sales, pending sales, new listings and median sales price all increased," said Christy Walker, board president of Phoenix REALTORS, in a statement highlighting the city’s robust performance. "These data are indicators of the strength in the Phoenix market."
The city’s housing inventory tells its own story. Across metropolitan Phoenix, the number of homes for sale swelled by 19.2%, resulting in a 4.4-month supply as of October 2025. This increase in inventory hasn’t dampened prices; the median sales price for a single-family home now sits at $480,000, matching the national average and marking a 0.4% uptick from last year. Despite the rise in prices, affordability is improving—a rare feat. The housing affordability index moved up from 69 to 71, meaning 71% of households can now afford the median-priced home, a 2.9% improvement over 2024. "Homeowners are seeing values rise, increasing their personal equity. At the same time, rising incomes mean more households can buy that median home compared to last year," Walker noted.
Breaking down the numbers by city, Phoenix itself saw a 1.8% bump in closed sales and a 5.4% rise in new listings, although the median home price held steady at $485,000. The average home now spends 66 days on the market, a 20% increase from last year. Scottsdale stands out for its luxury surge, with median prices up 3.5% to $1.18 million and closed sales climbing 5.7%. Mesa’s market, while seeing a 28.3% jump in days on market (now 68 days), posted a nearly flat median sales price at $490,000 and a modest 0.9% rise in closed sales. Gilbert, Goodyear, Peoria, and Surprise each paint a nuanced picture: Gilbert’s sales and listings are up but prices dipped 1.7%; Goodyear’s closed sales soared 27.2% even as median prices dropped slightly; Peoria saw a 5.6% sales boost with a 1.5% price decline; and Surprise enjoyed a 6.1% sales increase and a 14.1% jump in new listings, though median prices slipped 1.4%.
Nationally, the housing market is described as sluggish but normalizing after the "party year" of 2021, when rock-bottom mortgage rates fueled a frenzy of activity. According to Brad O’Connor, chief economist with Florida Realtors, the years since have seen a gradual cooling. "Everybody across the country benefitted from low mortgage rates but not every state also had a ton of people moving in at the same time," O’Connor explained during the Florida Real Estate Trends Summit in Orlando. Florida, in particular, has been buoyed by strong population growth, job creation, and a steady influx of new residents from other states and abroad.
Looking ahead to 2026, experts are predicting a rebound in home sales if mortgage rates continue to ease. Projections suggest rates may average 6% in 2026, down from 6.7% in 2025. Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, is optimistic: "It feels like we have more momentum. We are slightly getting more inventory. We're seeing interest rates coming down. Those are all favorable conditions, but we just want that bounce, right? We've been waiting for it." National forecasts call for a 14% jump in existing-home sales and a 5% increase in new construction, with the median home price expected to rise 4% in 2026 after a 3% gain in 2025.
Florida’s own market, while still described as sluggish, has seen three consecutive months of statewide sales increases as of early 2026. The state remains a magnet for both domestic and international migration, with significant numbers arriving from Cuba, Haiti, Venezuela, Brazil, and Colombia. International transactions now account for 5% of statewide sales and dollar volume. However, migration patterns are shifting: working-age residents are increasingly leaving, especially in urban centers like Miami, while retirees continue to flock in, drawn by Florida’s climate and relative affordability compared to states like New York and California. "As affordability comes down because house prices have increased so much, maybe you have some folks move out. I think it's also a remote work story as folks are being brought back into the office," said Odeta Kushi, vice president and deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation.
Demographics are changing as well. The median age for a first-time homebuyer in Florida has climbed to 40, with about one-third of home sales now made with cash—often sourced from financial assets or inheritance, rather than parental assistance. Lautz explained, "That's now surpassing what used to be that top source, the bank of mom and dad... In fact, it used to be as high as a third of first-time homebuyers were using the bank of mom and dad." About 8% of first-time buyers are using inheritance for their down payments, a record high.
Yet, challenges remain. The national inventory of homes is still short by 4.7 to 5 million units. Labor market conditions are another concern, with hiring rates stuck at levels not seen since 2013 and 2014. "One of the factors that contributes to home purchases is changing jobs," Lautz said, cautioning that a sluggish labor market could dampen housing demand. Meanwhile, only about 40% of homeowners nationwide have mortgages, so falling rates may not impact the majority directly, though they do open the door for more buyers. Notably, a drop in mortgage rates from 7% to 6% could generate roughly 6,000 new housing transactions in Orlando alone within 18 months, according to National Association of Realtors estimates.
For both Phoenix and Florida, the interplay of rising prices, evolving demographics, and shifting migration patterns will define the housing market in 2026. While Phoenix continues to outpace national trends, Florida’s cautious optimism is grounded in hopes for lower mortgage rates and continued population growth. Buyers and sellers in both markets will need to navigate a changing landscape—one that rewards patience, flexibility, and a keen eye on the economic horizon.
With the new year underway, all eyes are on interest rates, inventory, and the ever-shifting patterns of migration and demand that will shape America’s housing market in the months ahead.