In a dramatic series of developments reshaping the global energy landscape, the United States and Venezuela have forged a new partnership, upending longstanding geopolitical dynamics and triggering ripple effects from Beijing to Havana. At the heart of this shift is Phillips 66, a major U.S. refiner, which in February 2026 requested approval from Washington to begin directly purchasing heavy crude oil from Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, starting in April. This move—paired with a notable increase in Phillips 66’s quarterly dividend—signals growing confidence among U.S. energy companies and policymakers that Venezuela is back in play as a key supplier.
According to reporting from Simply Wall St, Phillips 66’s management announced a quarterly dividend hike to $1.27 per share, a decision that “reflects management’s confidence in the company’s cash flow profile as of late February 2026.” The company’s bid to source Venezuelan crude directly, bypassing intermediaries, is designed to “improve feedstock economics and support sustained dividend increases.” With the U.S. government’s green light, Phillips 66 aims to strengthen its capacity to absorb high turnaround costs, manage refinery exits—such as its withdrawal from the Los Angeles market—and weather potential pressures on refining margins.
This strategic pivot comes on the heels of seismic political change in Venezuela. Less than two months after the ouster of former President Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. announced it had received over 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela. As reported by CNN and other outlets, President Donald Trump used his February 24, 2026, State of the Union address to tout the new relationship, stating, “U.S. oil production has increased by more than 600,000 barrels per day, and we have received over 80 million barrels of oil from our new friends in Venezuela.”
The rapid thaw in U.S.-Venezuelan energy ties followed a series of swift moves by both governments. On January 29, 2026, Venezuela’s National Assembly passed an amended Hydrocarbon Law. This legislation allows private companies headquartered in Venezuela to contract directly with PDVSA for exploration, extraction, transportation, refining, and commercialization of oil and gas. The law’s passage immediately prompted the U.S. to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry, opening the door for Western companies—including Phillips 66—to re-enter the market.
Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim president and a former vice president under Maduro, has positioned her administration as a pragmatic partner for Washington. After U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Venezuela to meet with Rodríguez and tour local oil facilities, both sides moved quickly to cement their energy alliance. The stabilization of Venezuela’s political system and the rebuilding of its oil sector—home to the world’s largest proven reserves, estimated at 303.8 billion barrels—have enormous implications for global energy markets.
But the U.S.-Venezuela rapprochement has not been without consequences elsewhere. China, which for years had been the primary buyer of discounted Venezuelan crude—importing an average of 395,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal—has seen its privileged access evaporate. Chinese state oil giant PetroChina halted all Venezuelan purchases after the U.S. asserted control over pricing and supply. For Chinese refiners in Shandong province, who relied on cheap Venezuelan oil to offset thin profit margins, the loss of supply has forced operational cutbacks and threatened their bottom lines. The days of importing Venezuelan crude at $10–$20 below market prices, then reselling it in Asia, appear to be over.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical chess game has spilled over into the Panama Canal. On February 23, 2026, the Panamanian government declared it would take over two ports in the canal area previously operated by a Hong Kong-based company. The move, rooted in a Supreme Court ruling that voided the port operator’s contract, was widely seen as a blow to Chinese influence in the region. The ports, Balboa and Cristobal, are critical nodes for global shipping—and their transfer from Chinese to Panamanian control drew a sharp response from Beijing. According to the Financial Times, Chinese officials condemned the takeover as a “vile attempt” to undermine China-Latin America cooperation and damage relations with Panama, demanding an end to what they called “fabricated connections” between China and canal operations.
Back in the U.S., Phillips 66’s financial outlook reflects both optimism and caution. The company forecasts revenues of $120 billion and earnings of $5.2 billion by 2028, assuming a 3.4% annual revenue decline but significant earnings growth from $1.7 billion to about $3.5 billion. The company’s fair value is estimated at $157.55 per share as of February 28, 2026. However, as Simply Wall St notes, “key risks include refining margin pressures and operational or regulatory disruptions in the midstream sector.” The range of fair value estimates from various analysts is striking—spanning from $80.65 to $268.71—highlighting the uncertainty that still surrounds the sector.
These shifting alliances and economic calculations are playing out against the backdrop of a deepening crisis in Cuba. The U.S. has tightened its embargo on the island, causing severe energy shortages and prompting emergency measures by the Cuban government. Public transportation has been curtailed, universities have moved to remote learning, and state enterprises have adopted four-day workweeks to conserve scarce fuel. Cuba, which relies on imports for two-thirds of its energy needs, saw its supplies from Venezuela dwindle after the U.S. blockade of tankers in nearby waters and the collapse of the Maduro regime.
Yet, in a rare gesture, the U.S. Treasury partially eased sanctions on February 25, 2026, allowing humanitarian shipments of Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector. The move was motivated by fears that Cuba’s economic meltdown could destabilize the entire Caribbean region. According to AFP, Cuba’s oil reserves are down to just 15–20 days’ worth of supply—a razor-thin margin that leaves the country teetering on the brink.
China, for its part, has pledged to support Cuba in its hour of need. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Cuban counterpart in Beijing on March 5, promising, “China will do everything within its power to help.” In late February, China committed to sending 60,000 tons of rice and $80 million in emergency aid to Cuba. Chinese officials have also reiterated their opposition to foreign interference, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stating, “China firmly supports Cuba’s national sovereignty and security, and opposes any acts that deprive the Cuban people of their right to survival and development.”
As the dust settles on these rapid-fire changes, one thing is clear: the global oil chessboard has been rearranged. U.S. companies like Phillips 66 are poised to benefit from new supply lines and improved margins, while China scrambles to adapt to lost access and diminished influence. For Cuba, the future remains uncertain, caught between the shifting priorities of Washington and Beijing. The coming months will test the resilience of these new alliances—and the world will be watching closely.