Tensions in the South China Sea are once again making global headlines, as the Philippines finds itself at the crossroads of major power rivalry and rising regional uncertainty. The stakes are high: the South China Sea is not just a flashpoint for diplomatic disputes, but a vital artery for more than $3 trillion in annual commerce, according to Business Standard. The question facing Manila—and the world—is whether the Philippines can "Trump-proof" its alliance with the United States to effectively deter China’s increasingly assertive behavior.
On Sunday, September 14, 2025, China’s military Southern Theater Command announced it had conducted routine patrols in the South China Sea. In a stern message, a spokesperson warned the Philippines to "immediately stop provoking incidents and escalating tensions in the South China Sea, as well as bringing in external forces for backing such efforts that are destined to be futile." The spokesperson added, "Any attempt to stir up trouble or disrupt the situation will not succeed." These remarks, reported by Business Standard, underline the hardened stance Beijing has adopted in recent years, especially as maritime standoffs and coast guard clashes between China and the Philippines have become almost routine.
The Philippines, for its part, has not stood still. From Thursday, September 11, to Saturday, September 13, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States conducted joint maritime exercises within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone. According to the US Indo-Pacific Command, these drills aimed to "strengthen regional cooperation and support a free and open Indo-Pacific region." The statement continued, "The US, along with our allies and partners, upholds the right to freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the sea and international airspace, as well as respect to the maritime rights under international law." Such exercises are not just symbolic—they are a tangible demonstration of Manila’s efforts to reinforce its alliances and signal resolve in the face of Chinese pressure.
Yet, beneath the surface, there is a growing debate within the Philippines about how far it should go in reinforcing its military and expanding security partnerships. The Crisis Group, in a report released on August 12, 2025, highlighted the complex challenge posed by China’s "grey zone" tactics—operations designed to test, provoke, and fatigue Philippine forces without crossing the line into open warfare. These tactics raise uncomfortable questions about the reliability of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which commits both nations to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack by a third party. As the Crisis Group report warns, "the Philippines still lacks the tools to counter China without a dependable US defense partner."
This dependence on Washington, however, is not without risks. Analysts cited by the South China Morning Post warn that Manila’s reliance on the US leaves it exposed to shifting priorities in Washington—especially under former President Donald Trump, whose unpredictability has cast doubt on America’s willingness to support Manila in a crisis. The memory of Trump’s transactional approach to alliances lingers, fueling concerns that future US administrations might not be as committed as Manila hopes. The report notes, "Analysts warn this reliance leaves Manila exposed to Washington’s shifting priorities under Trump, whose unpredictability has raised concerns about America's willingness to support Manila in a crisis."
Some voices in Manila argue that a stronger deterrent posture could entangle the country in a potential future conflict with China—a scenario few Filipinos relish. Others, however, insist that greater diversification of allies is essential to reduce dependence on the US and bolster national security. The debate is far from settled, and the path forward remains murky.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to signal its support for the Philippines. On Friday, September 12, 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly rejected what he described as China’s "destabilising plans" for a disputed atoll in the South China Sea. Rubio’s statement, reported by Business Standard, underscored Washington’s commitment to its regional allies and its opposition to Beijing’s expansive maritime claims.
China’s claim to almost the entire South China Sea, despite overlapping claims by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam, remains one of the most contentious issues in Asian geopolitics. The waterway is not only rich in resources but also strategically vital, making any escalation of tensions potentially catastrophic for global trade and regional peace.
Against this backdrop, the Philippines has sought to strengthen its military capabilities and deepen cooperation with like-minded partners. The annual "Balikatan" joint military exercise, held in May 2025, brought together Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner, US ambassador to the Philippines Marykay Carlson, Philippine defense minister Gilberto Teodoro, and US Marines Lieutenant General Michael Cederholm. Their presence at the closing ceremony was a powerful symbol of the enduring—if sometimes fraught—alliance between Manila and Washington.
Yet, as the Crisis Group report makes clear, joint exercises and diplomatic statements can only go so far. The real challenge lies in developing the tools and strategies needed to counter "grey zone" tactics and deter aggression without triggering a wider conflict. The report notes, "How far the Philippines should go in reinforcing its military and expanding security partnerships is unclear. Some caution that a stronger deterrent could entangle the country in a potential future conflict with China. Others argue that greater diversification of allies is essential to reduce dependence on the US."
For its part, China continues to frame its actions as defensive, accusing the Philippines of "provoking incidents and escalating tensions" by "bringing in external forces"—a thinly veiled reference to the United States and Japan. The Chinese military’s message is clear: Beijing will not tolerate what it sees as interference in its backyard, and it is prepared to respond to any perceived challenge to its claims.
With regional powers like Japan joining the United States and the Philippines in maritime exercises, the balance of power in the South China Sea is shifting, but not necessarily stabilizing. Calls to Japan’s foreign and defense ministries for comment went unanswered over the weekend, but Tokyo’s participation in the recent drills speaks volumes about its growing role in regional security.
As the world watches, the Philippines faces a daunting task: navigating between the twin risks of over-reliance on the United States and unchecked Chinese assertiveness. The stakes could hardly be higher. The choices Manila makes in the coming months and years will shape not only its own security but also the broader future of the Indo-Pacific order.
For now, the Philippines remains caught in the middle—determined to defend its sovereignty, wary of entanglement, and searching for the right mix of alliances and capabilities to secure its future in an increasingly uncertain world.