Malawi’s presidential election, held on September 16, 2025, has taken an unexpected turn as former President Peter Mutharika surges ahead in the vote count, according to provisional results released by the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) and reported by multiple outlets including BBC and Reuters. With two-thirds of districts reporting, Mutharika, the 85-year-old leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, has secured a commanding lead—garnering approximately 66% of the valid votes counted so far. Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, 70, of the Malawi Congress Party, trails with about 24% of the tally.
These figures, compiled from 24 of Malawi’s 36 councils, represent a dramatic reversal of political fortunes. Not only has Mutharika dominated in regions traditionally loyal to Chakwera, such as the capital Lilongwe and Nkhotakota, but he has also managed to outperform expectations in other key areas. According to BBC, Mutharika’s victories in these strongholds have stunned political analysts and energized his supporters, some of whom had doubted whether the former president could mount a serious comeback after his 2020 defeat.
The MEC is expected to announce the final results by Wednesday, September 24, 2025. At least 12 districts have yet to declare their results, including rural areas around Lilongwe and Dedza, where Chakwera’s camp remains optimistic about closing the gap. Notably, two districts where Mutharika is projected to perform strongly have had their results temporarily withheld pending verification—a move the commission says is part of its commitment to transparency and accuracy. The commission has stressed that all tally sheets are being meticulously reviewed, especially in light of the 2019 election controversy when Mutharika’s initial victory was annulled by the constitutional court due to irregularities. That decision led to the historic 2020 re-run, won decisively by Chakwera.
Under Malawi’s constitution, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off. With Mutharika’s current tally well above this threshold, the possibility of a second round appears increasingly unlikely—unless, as Chakwera’s team hopes, the remaining districts break sharply in their favor. Chakwera’s campaign has called for a “physical audit” of results, citing unspecified irregularities. On Friday, September 19, 2025, his party reported discovering “irregularities” and “serious anomalies,” though they declined to specify the nature of these concerns. The call for an audit comes as police confirmed the arrest of eight data entry clerks accused of attempting to manipulate vote tallies, an incident that has further heightened tensions and underscored the stakes of this election.
According to Reuters, political analysts had anticipated a strong challenge from Mutharika, who previously served as president from 2014 to 2020. His tenure was marked by significant infrastructure improvements and a period of lower inflation, achievements that many Malawians remember fondly—particularly as the country has grappled with deepening economic woes in recent years. Critics, however, have accused Mutharika of cronyism, charges he has consistently denied.
For Chakwera, the 2025 election has unfolded against a backdrop of mounting economic turmoil. His presidency, which began with a decisive victory in the 2020 re-run, has been marred by soaring inflation, persistent fuel and food shortages, and chronic power outages. These challenges have eroded public confidence in his administration and, according to several analysts cited by BBC, may have contributed to the swing in voter sentiment now benefiting Mutharika.
The MEC’s emphasis on transparency and credibility is not without reason. The 2019 election, which initially saw Mutharika declared the winner, was later annulled by Malawi’s Constitutional Court after widespread irregularities were uncovered. The court’s decision was hailed as a milestone for African democracy, setting a precedent for judicial independence and electoral integrity. In the wake of that ruling, the commission has taken pains to reassure the public that every vote will be counted accurately and that any anomalies will be addressed swiftly and openly.
As the nation awaits the final results, both camps are expressing optimism. Chakwera’s supporters point to the large voting populations in several of the yet-to-report districts—particularly rural Lilongwe and Dedza—as potential sources of a late surge. Mutharika’s backers, meanwhile, argue that his broad-based appeal and strong showing in traditional opposition strongholds signal a decisive mandate for change.
Unofficial tallies reported by Times Television earlier in the week suggested Mutharika had already crossed the critical 56% mark, giving him a substantial cushion and raising the prospect that he could reclaim the presidency without the need for a run-off. The official numbers released by the MEC late Monday, September 22, 2025, have only reinforced this narrative, with Mutharika’s lead holding steady as more results come in.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Malawi, a nation of nearly 20 million, has endured a turbulent political cycle in recent years. The 2019-2020 saga, which saw Mutharika’s victory overturned and Chakwera’s subsequent rise to power, was a watershed moment. Now, just five years later, Malawians are faced with another potential transfer of power—one that could reshape the country’s political and economic trajectory for years to come.
Both the international community and local observers are watching closely. The MEC’s handling of the verification process, particularly in districts where results have been temporarily withheld, will be scrutinized for signs of bias or irregularity. The arrests of data entry clerks on suspicion of attempted manipulation have further fueled concerns about the integrity of the process, though the commission insists that such incidents are being dealt with swiftly and transparently.
For many Malawians, the overriding sentiment is one of cautious hope—hope that, whatever the outcome, the final result will reflect the true will of the people. As one observer put it, “After everything that happened in 2019 and 2020, we just want a fair and honest election.”
With the deadline for final results looming, all eyes remain fixed on the MEC and the remaining districts yet to declare. Whether Peter Mutharika completes his comeback or Lazarus Chakwera stages a late rally, the result will carry profound implications for Malawi’s democracy and its future direction.
In a country where the scars of past electoral disputes remain fresh, the hope is that this year’s contest will end not with controversy, but with a clear and widely accepted outcome.