Ten years ago, the world watched as leaders from 195 countries gathered in Paris and, with a mixture of hope and urgency, signed the Paris Agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) on December 12, 2015. This landmark accord promised to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change," with a bold ambition: keep the global average temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and strive to limit it to 1.5°C. The ink had barely dried when the world hailed it as a historic turning point. But a decade on, as the planet continues to warm, the question lingers—has the Paris Agreement delivered on its promise?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in its November 2025 report, the trajectory has shifted, but not nearly enough. Projections for this century now place the temperature rise between 2.3°C and 2.5°C if countries meet their climate commitments, and at 2.8°C under current policies. This is a marked improvement from the nearly 4°C increase projected before the Paris Agreement, as Greenpeace highlights, but it still falls short of the 1.5°C goal that the world so desperately needs to hit.
UN Secretary General António Guterres delivered a sobering assessment on the agreement's tenth anniversary: "We will not be able to keep global warming below 1.5°C in the next few years. Exceeding this limit is inevitable." The warning is clear—while the Paris Agreement has set the world on a new path, the pace of change is not fast enough to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
It's not just about numbers and projections. The consequences of a warming planet are already being felt across the globe. The World Bank, in its 2021 "Groundswell" report, warned that up to 216 million people could be forced to migrate within their own countries by 2050, seeking better living conditions as water becomes scarce, agricultural productivity declines, and sea levels rise. These are not distant threats; they are unfolding now.
Europe, in particular, is feeling the heat. Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), noted earlier this year that "Europe is the fastest-warming continent and is bearing the brunt of extreme weather events and climate change." The evidence is everywhere: in August 2024, more than 150 fires blazed across Portugal and Greece in a single day. Just two months later, the Valencia region in Spain was inundated by a year's worth of rain in just eight hours, resulting in the loss of over 220 lives. In September, storm Boris swept through Central Europe, its floods claiming more than twenty lives.
France is not immune either. According to Météo-France, the country has seen a temperature rise of +2.1°C over the period 2015-2024 compared with 1900-1930. If current trends continue, this could reach +4°C by 2100 in a +3°C global warming scenario. Each degree of warming increases the air's moisture capacity by about 7%, intensifying the potential for heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, oceans—currently absorbing around 91% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions—are gradually losing their ability to sequester carbon as they warm, further exacerbating the crisis.
The Paris Agreement has not been without its challenges. During his first term, US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the accord, arguing it did not reflect American values. Despite this, the agreement has proven resilient. As Greenpeace notes, no other country has followed the US in leaving, and subsequent international climate summits, including COP28 in Dubai, have reaffirmed the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and end deforestation by 2030. In July 2025, the International Court of Justice underscored the agreement's legal force, confirming the 1.5°C limit as a binding threshold.
Yet, the world remains dangerously off track. At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, the UN published an analysis of countries' 2035 climate action plans—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—and found that they would only produce a projected 12% cut in global emissions by 2035. This is a far cry from the 60% reduction needed compared to 2019 levels. The main culprits? The G20 countries, which are responsible for 80% of global emissions, but whose plans would only achieve a 23-29% cut by 2035, and none of whose NDCs include credible fossil fuel phase-out strategies.
There are glimmers of hope. The clean energy transition has accelerated since the Paris Agreement. Solar and wind power are now, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the most cost-effective forms of electricity generation. Since 2010, the cost of solar, wind, and batteries has dropped by 90%, 70%, and 90% respectively, with further declines expected by 2035. The IEA's 2025 World Energy Outlook forecasts fossil fuel use peaking before or around 2030, despite recent political support for coal, oil, and gas. These shifts are not just technical; they are transformative, showing that a renewable energy future is both possible and necessary.
But the transition must be just and equitable. The UN's December 2025 report calls for an "interconnected, whole-of-society and whole-of-government" approach to climate action, urging transformation across energy, food, and economic systems. The report warns that climate change could cut annual global GDP by 4% by 2050 and cost millions of lives if nations fail to act together.
Frustration with political inaction is growing. On December 11, 2025, Greenpeace, Action Justice Climat Paris, and ANV-COP 21 staged a dramatic protest near the Eiffel Tower, unfurling a giant banner featuring Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, and Donald Trump. ANV-COP 21 declared, "This action denounces the politicians in power who, for the last ten years, have favoured polluting industries and billionaires over the fight against climate change and the general interest." Greenpeace added, "Misinformation is on the rise, the criminalisation of environmentalists is on the increase, and ecological setbacks are multiplying," criticizing France for failing to meet its climate targets.
At COP30, hopes were high for historic progress to phase out fossil fuels and end deforestation, but geopolitical divisions saw these roadmaps slashed from the formal outcome. Still, more than 80 countries supported a fossil fuel transition roadmap, and over 90 were ready to back a deforestation roadmap. Brazil has committed to advancing these initiatives, reporting back at COP31. The expectation for action is now firmly established, and the demand for real change is not going away.
Greenpeace and other climate advocates are calling for increased climate finance, a "Polluters Pay Pact" to hold oil and gas companies accountable, and a global push to end deforestation. As Bob Watson, former NASA and British climate scientist, put it in the UNEP report, "We can become much more sustainable, but it will take unprecedented change to transform these systems. It has to be done rapidly now because we’re running out of time."
Ten years after Paris, the world has made progress, but the fight is far from over. The Paris Agreement remains a beacon of hope and a rallying point for action, but only bold, collective, and immediate efforts will ensure its promise becomes reality.
