In a dramatic turn of events on October 9, 2025, Pakistan launched airstrikes inside Afghanistan, targeting Kabul and Paktika province. The official line from Islamabad was clear: these were anti-terror operations aimed at Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts. But as the dust settled and the world tried to make sense of the violence, it became obvious that this was no routine border skirmish. The strikes, which killed dozens, marked the most aggressive Pakistani action on Afghan soil since the Taliban seized power in 2021, and they sent shockwaves through the region’s already fragile geopolitics.
According to The Express Tribune, the context behind these airstrikes is as complex as it is consequential. On the very day of the strikes, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was in New Delhi, seeking to strengthen ties with India—a move that surely set off alarm bells in Islamabad. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, former President Donald Trump was pushing his plan to reclaim Bagram Airbase, the United States’ once-dominant military fortress in Afghanistan. The coincidence of these events was lost on no one, and analysts quickly connected the dots, seeing a broader contest for Eurasian dominance involving Washington, Islamabad, Kabul, Beijing, and Moscow.
Officially, Pakistan insisted its strikes were a response to TTP terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. But as BBC and other outlets noted, the timing and scale suggested a deeper agenda. The U.S. response—silence—was telling. There was no condemnation, no call for restraint. Instead, intelligence leaks hinted that the United States might have quietly provided satellite data to Pakistan, enhancing the precision of the strikes. Just days before, the Trump administration had approved $3 billion in fresh military aid to Islamabad under a new “regional stability” framework, according to The Express Tribune. As one South Asian diplomat put it, “Pakistan can’t move a muscle without U.S. permission.”
Trump’s renewed focus on Bagram Airbase is central to understanding this moment. Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has been vocal about his desire to reclaim Bagram—not out of nostalgia, but for strategic advantage. The base, just 40 miles north of Kabul, is a linchpin for surveillance and power projection, overlooking China’s Xinjiang, bordering Iran, and sitting near Central Asia. Trump has called Bagram “the greatest geopolitical asset America ever abandoned.” For his administration, regaining the base means reestablishing U.S. reach over China, Iran, Russia, and even India’s regional ambitions. Critics warn this could reignite the Afghan conflict, but Trump’s Pentagon sees Bagram as vital to a new Indo-Pacific containment strategy.
The Taliban, however, are having none of it. Their spokesman declared, “Bagram is Afghan soil. No foreign boots again.” Yet, as The Express Tribune noted, Pakistan’s airstrikes may have weakened Taliban resistance, opening a window for the U.S. to negotiate—or coerce—a new arrangement.
The India-Taliban connection is another layer in this tangled web. Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, where India offered to restore its embassy in Kabul and expand humanitarian and infrastructure projects, was a diplomatic coup for the Taliban. For Pakistan’s generals, it was a nightmare: their former proxies now courting their archrival. The timing of Pakistan’s strikes seemed designed to send a message—not just to Kabul, but to New Delhi as well. As The Express Tribune put it, Pakistan’s “regional muscle” only flexes with Washington’s blessing, and the coordinated silence from U.S. officials suggested Islamabad’s actions served Trump’s broader strategic interests.
Just a day before the bombings, Pakistan had joined China, Russia, Iran, India, and Central Asian nations in signing the “Moscow Format Declaration,” rejecting any foreign military base in Afghanistan. This was meant to be a show of unity against U.S. influence, but Pakistan’s actions the very next day shattered that façade. Now, even Beijing and Tehran are uneasy. China, which opposes a U.S. return to Bagram because of its proximity to Xinjiang and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is watching Islamabad’s moves warily. Iran, too, fears renewed American surveillance. India, for its part, signed the declaration to limit Chinese influence, not necessarily America’s. The Taliban have already summoned Pakistan’s envoy and threatened retaliation, signaling a deepening rift.
Meanwhile, as Washington’s attention shifts from the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Trump’s administration is redeploying resources eastward. A new $100 billion Indo-Pacific plan is moving U.S. military and intelligence assets to Guam, Japan, the Philippines, and, potentially, Bagram. This is the real “America First” strategy: securing dominance in Asia before China can solidify its Eurasian sphere.
On the economic front, the stakes are just as high. On the same day as the airstrikes, China banned exports of 12 rare-earth elements crucial to electric vehicles, semiconductors, and missile systems. With Beijing controlling over 90% of global rare-earth refining, the U.S. is scrambling for alternatives. Afghanistan, with nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral reserves—including lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earths—has become a new focal point in this economic war. As The Express Tribune observed, reestablishing control over Bagram would allow the U.S. to access and secure these resources, potentially breaking China’s monopoly.
Against this backdrop, Pak-U.S. relations have reached a new high under Trump’s second term, after a decade of relative disengagement during the Obama-Biden years. The Express Tribune highlights that this new partnership is based on sustained security and economic cooperation, not just transactional ties. The U.S. strategic community, wary of China’s rise, has built alliances like Quad, Aukus, and IPEF to contain Beijing. India has become Washington’s regional surrogate, but its assertiveness has alienated neighbors and driven Pakistan closer to China for both economic and military support.
Pakistan, for its part, has acknowledged Trump’s role in preventing escalation between itself and India, in stark contrast to India’s refusal to recognize U.S. influence. U.S. investments in Pakistan’s East-West Economic Corridor and regional energy projects like TAPI, CASA 1000, and the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan corridor promise economic and geopolitical dividends. With over 80 U.S. firms operating in Pakistan and the country holding a competitive advantage in 26 products, there are real opportunities for trade and technology partnerships.
Recommendations from The Express Tribune include developing a Pak-USA Education and IT Corridor, enhancing educational and tech linkages, and possibly including Pakistan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum. Such moves could help both countries benefit from the current window of opportunity, premised on counterterrorism cooperation, defense collaboration, and peace-building.
As the world’s attention turns once again to Afghanistan’s mountains, the fate of Bagram Airbase—and the broader contest for Eurasian dominance—hangs in the balance. Pakistan’s airstrikes were more than a show of force; they were the opening salvo in a new shadow war over the region’s future. And as history has shown, when Afghanistan becomes the battlefield, the repercussions are felt far beyond its borders.