ISLAMABAD — The ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, once hailed as a potential milestone for regional stability, is now hanging by a thread. According to multiple statements from Pakistan’s Foreign Office (FO) and widespread reporting by outlets such as PakTribune, The Diplomatic Insight, and Business Recorder, the truce—brokered in October 2025 with the help of mediators from Qatar and Turkey—was never a conventional peace pact. Instead, it was a conditional truce, designed to halt cross-border attacks by militant groups operating from Afghan soil.
Yet, as November draws to a close, the reality on the ground has diverged sharply from the agreement’s original intent. Major terrorist incidents, including a deadly suicide blast in Islamabad’s G-11 area that killed 12 people and an attempted attack at Cadet College Wana in South Waziristan, have shattered any illusions of calm. Pakistani officials, including Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi, have openly declared that “the ceasefire is not holding,” citing ongoing attacks by groups such as Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Fitna-al-Khawarij (FaK), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) that continue to target Pakistani territory from Afghanistan.
“Despite the agreement, major terrorist attacks have continued. In that sense, the ceasefire is not holding,” Andrabi stated at a recent briefing, as reported by The Diplomatic Insight. The truce, reached on October 17, 2025, was meant primarily to prevent attacks within Pakistan, not to serve as a traditional ceasefire between two nations at war. Andrabi added, “If Afghan nationals are attacking as they did in Islamabad and elsewhere, we cannot be very optimistic about the ceasefire.”
The situation escalated after a series of border clashes in mid-October, during which Pakistani forces reportedly killed more than 200 Taliban fighters and affiliated militants following unprovoked firing along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. In response to these provocations, Pakistan launched targeted operations inside Afghanistan, including strikes near Kabul against what it described as terrorist hideouts. According to PakTribune, these actions were taken to protect Pakistani citizens and to send a clear message that Islamabad reserves the right to respond to threats emanating from across the border.
The ceasefire’s conditional nature reflects the deep mistrust that continues to define the relationship between Islamabad and Kabul. Pakistan’s FO has repeatedly emphasized that the agreement’s viability is contingent on Afghanistan taking “concrete and verifiable measures” against militant groups operating on its territory. Until such steps are taken, officials say, the truce remains tenuous at best.
In recent weeks, tensions have only intensified. Afghanistan accused Pakistan of carrying out overnight strikes on Afghan territory that allegedly killed 10 civilians—a claim Pakistan’s military has flatly denied. Kabul, in turn, has rejected Islamabad’s accusations that it harbors groups like the TTP, asserting that Pakistan’s security challenges are an internal matter. The rhetoric on both sides has grown sharper, with Pakistan’s Andrabi rejecting Afghan Taliban claims that Daesh (ISIS) has a presence in Pakistan, calling such assertions “outrageous” and “a figment of Kabul’s imagination.” He insisted, “Any extremist or terrorist element in Pakistan is dealt with strictly under our laws.”
The regional implications of these cross-border attacks are significant. Pakistan condemned a recent attack on Chinese workers in Tajikistan, in which at least three Chinese employees were killed in a combined drone and gun assault near the Afghan border. Andrabi characterized the incident as a “heinous terrorist act,” expressing grief over the loss of life and highlighting the broader threat posed by militants operating freely in the region. The Taliban authorities, for their part, have blamed “certain elements” for stirring disorder and instability, but Pakistan insists these groups are present on Afghan soil and must be controlled by the Kabul regime.
Efforts to salvage the ceasefire have thus far failed. Two subsequent rounds of talks, facilitated by Turkey and Qatar in Istanbul, were unable to firm up the truce after the initial Doha agreement. Pakistan remains open to mediation; Andrabi noted that while no formal proposal has been received, Islamabad “would not resent mediation in principle,” especially from countries like Saudi Arabia with whom Pakistan shares strong ties, including a recently signed Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.
“We would respond to any offer based on a concrete proposal, particularly with respect to terrorists using Afghan soil to attack Pakistan,” Andrabi said, as reported by Business Recorder. The FO has also underscored Pakistan’s ongoing coordination with both bilateral and multilateral partners—including China, Tajikistan, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (SCO RATS)—to address the growing menace of cross-border terrorism. Andrabi stressed, “Such joint coordination needs to be enhanced in the days to come because this menace is growing and is reaching across national and trans-national proportions.”
Meanwhile, the Pakistani military remains on high alert. Andrabi assured reporters that “our military preparedness is robust,” emphasizing that security challenges would be “addressed with the seriousness they merit.” This posture is not just rhetoric; it reflects a broader regional anxiety over the potential for escalation, especially given the recent border clashes and the ongoing threat of attacks from Afghan-based proxies.
Beyond the immediate security crisis, Pakistan has also raised concerns about other regional issues, including what it describes as violations of the Indus Waters Treaty by India and the ongoing discussions over the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Andrabi characterized India’s actions as a “violation of the treaty” and warned of the “weaponisation of water,” a move he said breaches international humanitarian law. On the energy front, talks with Iran continue, and there is optimism that the pipeline issue will be resolved bilaterally.
Despite the turmoil, Pakistan has shown a willingness to engage constructively on other fronts. The country recently joined the Gaza peace process and voted in favor of the UN Security Council’s resolution to end the bloodshed and seek a lasting political settlement. Additionally, Pakistani and Russian delegations held in-depth discussions in Islamabad, signaling Islamabad’s intent to remain diplomatically active even amid growing regional instability.
As November ends, the fate of the Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire remains uncertain. The agreement, once seen as a hopeful step toward stability, now serves as a stark reminder of the deep-seated mistrust and persistent security threats that continue to plague the region. For now, both sides remain locked in a tense standoff, with the promise of peace still just out of reach.
