The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies are set to light up FedExForum in Memphis tonight, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. It's a matchup that’s got NBA fans and bettors buzzing, not just for the on-court action but for the storylines swirling around both squads. The Pacers, coming off a heartbreaker in double overtime against the Thunder in an NBA Finals rematch, are eager to notch their first win of the new season. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Miami Heat just last night.
Let’s set the stage: Indiana enters this contest at 0-1, while Memphis sits at 1-1. Both teams are dealing with significant absences—something that could shape the flow and outcome of this early-season clash. For the Pacers, star guard Tyrese Haliburton is sidelined with an Achilles injury, rookie Kam Jones is facing legal issues after a recent arrest, and guards TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard are also unavailable. That’s a lot of playmaking and leadership missing from Rick Carlisle’s rotation.
But it’s not just Indiana feeling the injury bug. The Grizzlies are without Ja Morant, who is listed as week-to-week with an ankle sprain, and they’re also missing Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey due to injuries. On top of that, Memphis is still adjusting to life under new head coach Tuomas Iisalo and the absence of shooting guard Desmond Bane, who was traded to the Magic in the offseason. The result? Both teams are shuffling their lineups and searching for new offensive rhythms.
Despite the adversity, the Pacers showed plenty of fight in their opener. Bennedict Mathurin exploded for 36 points, while Pascal Siakam poured in 32. That’s the kind of production Indiana will need again tonight, especially with Haliburton and McConnell out. According to Dimers’ advanced NBA model, Siakam is projected to lead the Pacers with 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists, while Mathurin is expected to chip in 21 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists. Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, and Jarace Walker round out a supporting cast that’s going to have to step up if Indiana is to break into the win column.
Memphis, for its part, is searching for stability. Their blowout loss to Miami saw them give up a staggering 86 points in the first half, forcing Iisalo to rest key players in the second. That might actually benefit the Grizzlies tonight, as some legs will be fresher than expected for a back-to-back. Ja Morant remains the focal point—when healthy, he’s projected for 26 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists—but his status is in question. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama will be expected to shoulder more of the scoring load, with Jackson slated for 21 points and 6 rebounds, according to projections.
Betting markets have this one pegged as a toss-up. The Grizzlies are slight 1.5-point favorites at home, with the moneyline nearly even: -115 for Memphis, -105 for Indiana. The over/under is set at a whopping 237.5 points, reflecting both teams’ up-tempo styles and recent defensive struggles. Notably, the over is 1-0 in Pacers games and 2-0 in Grizzlies games so far this season.
Looking at last year’s numbers, the Pacers were an absolute force in the paint, averaging 57.9 points per game there—best in the NBA. They also led the league in second-half scoring, pouring in 61.5 points per game after halftime. That relentless attack inside could pose big problems for a Memphis squad that, despite its defensive reputation, posted the league’s lowest home shooting percentage (43%) and struggled with overall efficiency (48% true shooting, second lowest in the NBA).
Historically, these two teams split their meetings last season, each winning once. But tonight’s contest marks their first showdown of the 2025-26 campaign, and both sides are hungry to establish momentum. Betting trends suggest the Pacers are a solid bet against the spread, having covered in their opener, while Memphis is 1-1 ATS. The Pacers have also shown resilience on the road, especially after losses, with betting models favoring them in bounce-back situations.
There’s plenty of intrigue in the player prop market as well. Pascal Siakam’s over/under is set at 22.5 points, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is pegged for more than 8.5 rebounds. Ja Morant, if he plays, is projected under 7.5 assists. These props reflect the expectation of a high-scoring, fast-paced affair, with both teams likely to push the ball and look for early offense.
Coaching will play a pivotal role tonight. Rick Carlisle’s Pacers have a reputation for adapting on the fly, and with so many rotation players out, that flexibility will be tested. On the other bench, Tuomas Iisalo is still finding his footing in the NBA, and tonight’s game offers a chance to see how he manages adversity and fatigue—especially after last night’s drubbing in Miami.
For fans and bettors alike, the game offers a fascinating early-season litmus test. Will Indiana’s interior dominance and fresher legs be enough to overcome their depleted backcourt? Can Memphis shake off the effects of a back-to-back and lean on its home crowd to eke out a win?
One thing’s for sure: If you’re looking for defensive basketball, this probably isn’t your game. Both teams are built to run, gun, and light up the scoreboard. As one analyst put it, "Both of these teams are going to try and push pace and put up huge numbers on the scoreboard." The model projections back that up, with predicted scores ranging from Pacers 123, Grizzlies 118 to Pacers 118, Grizzlies 117—either way, expect fireworks.
As tipoff approaches, all eyes will be on the injury reports and starting lineups. The Pacers are favored by several predictive models, with win probabilities hovering around 52-54%. But with so many variables in play—player absences, back-to-back fatigue, and new coaching wrinkles—nothing is set in stone.
Whether you’re watching for the betting angle, the player performances, or just the sheer entertainment, Pacers vs. Grizzlies promises to deliver high-octane basketball and no shortage of drama. As the teams take the court tonight in Memphis, the stage is set for one of the most intriguing matchups of the young NBA season. Stay tuned—this one could go down to the wire!
