The Minnesota Twins’ hopes for a bounce-back season took a major hit this week as news broke that right-hander Pablo Lopez, their ace and Opening Day starter for the past three years, has suffered a significant tear in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament (UCL). The injury, revealed after Lopez experienced discomfort following a bullpen session during the first full-squad workout on Monday, February 17, 2026, could sideline him for the entire season and possibly require Tommy John surgery.
General manager Jeremy Zoll confirmed the diagnosis to reporters at the Twins’ spring training facility, stating that Lopez is seeking a second medical opinion but that surgery is "very much on the table." Zoll’s tone was somber as he acknowledged the blow to the team’s rotation. "We know injuries are part of the game. You're always trying to get through spring training as healthy as possible. It's definitely a blow, but we're going to just do the best we can to push forward," Zoll told reporters, according to The Athletic.
For Lopez, who turns 30 on March 7 and is in the third year of a four-year, $73.5 million contract, the setback is particularly painful. "I already feel I'm letting a lot of people down. I'm letting myself down. I'm letting the Twins down. I'm letting my family down," Lopez said at the Lee Health Sports Complex. The emotional toll is compounded by the timing: Lopez was also slated to pitch for his native Venezuela in the upcoming World Baseball Classic next month, an opportunity now likely lost.
The injury comes after a 2025 season marred by physical setbacks for Lopez. He managed only 14 starts and 75⅔ innings due to a Grade 2 strain of his teres major muscle and a late-season forearm strain. Despite these challenges, Lopez excelled when healthy, posting a 2.74 ERA and striking out 23.4% of batters faced. The forearm strain, which sometimes signals looming UCL trouble, did not prevent Lopez from having a normal offseason, according to team officials. The UCL tear, therefore, appears to be a new development discovered during camp, though some observers wonder if the seeds were sown late last year.
This isn’t Lopez’s first encounter with Tommy John surgery. He previously underwent the procedure as a prospect in the Seattle Mariners system, missing the entire 2014 minor league season. Reflecting on his current predicament, Lopez offered a mix of resignation and determination: "We're not designed to throw things that hard for an extended time. Having done it once, I can do it again. Doesn't mean I want to, but I'm going to have to and I know I can."
The Twins’ rotation, already thinned by offseason moves and payroll cuts, now faces a daunting challenge. With Lopez out, All-Star right-hander Joe Ryan ascends to the role of staff ace. Bailey Ober, who battled a hip injury last year, is expected to slot in as the No. 2 starter. Behind them, a group of young, largely unproven arms will compete for the remaining rotation spots. Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa—all 25 years old and with a combined 98 starts over the past two seasons—are prime candidates. Recent trade acquisitions Taj Bradley and Mick Abel, both highly regarded prospects, are also in the mix. Left-hander Connor Prielipp and righties Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas round out a deep but inexperienced list of options.
As for the bullpen and overall roster, the Twins have made only modest additions this winter, signing Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to big league deals and trading for relievers Anthony Banda and Eric Orze. Several recognizable veterans are in camp on non-roster deals, including Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Andrew Chafin, Liam Hendriks, Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman, and Julian Merryweather. Whether any of these players can fill the void left by Lopez remains to be seen.
The financial implications are significant as well. Lopez is earning $21.75 million this season, making him the highest-paid player on a roster that has shed more than $30 million in payroll since last year and over $50 million since its 2023 peak. The team’s willingness to spend remains an open question, though new executive chair Tom Pohlad recently confirmed to The Athletic that the Twins made a late run at free agent Framber Valdez, ultimately outbid by the division-rival Tigers. While the Twins have yet to make a major external addition, right-handers Lucas Giolito and former Twin Zack Littell remain available on the market. If the Twins wish to bolster their rotation, there should be room in the budget to pursue a veteran arm.
Lopez arrived in Minnesota via trade from the Miami Marlins prior to the 2023 season and made an immediate impact, earning an All-Star nod and helping the franchise snap a record 18-game postseason losing streak. He went 2-0 with a sparkling 0.71 ERA in two playoff starts that year, cementing his status as the club’s ace. Over his three seasons with the Twins, Lopez has compiled a 31-22 record with a 3.68 ERA, and advanced metrics such as SIERA (3.41) and FIP (3.44) suggest he’s been every bit as effective as his surface numbers indicate. He finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, and many around the game believed he was on the cusp of a truly dominant season.
The timing of Lopez’s injury could not be worse for a Twins team looking to rebound from last year’s disappointing 70-92 finish. The club’s decision to hold onto both Lopez and Ryan amid offseason trade speculation was rooted in a belief that a strong rotation could anchor a playoff push. Now, with their most reliable starter sidelined, the pressure is on the next generation of pitchers to step up—ready or not.
General manager Zoll is trying to look on the bright side, framing the situation as an opportunity for young arms to seize the moment. "In a lot of ways, we view this as a real opportunity for someone to step up and take advantage of that. We'll pick up the pieces once we have a better handle on things," he said. But make no mistake: replacing the production, leadership, and postseason pedigree of Pablo Lopez is a tall order for any club, let alone one with so many question marks on its roster.
As Lopez awaits his second opinion and the likelihood of surgery looms, the Twins and their fans are left to wonder how the team will navigate the season without its anchor. Will a young pitcher emerge as a surprise star? Could a late addition to the rotation help steady the ship? For now, the only certainty is that Minnesota’s path back to contention just got a lot steeper.