In a move that has sent ripples through the American League East and beyond, the Tampa Bay Rays traded right-handed pitcher Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for a package of prospects and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. While trades between AL East rivals are rare, this transaction—finalized just days before Christmas—has major implications for both real-life baseball and the fantasy landscape heading into the 2026 season.
The deal, completed on December 20, 2025, saw the Rays receive catcher Caden Bodine, outfielder Slater de Brun, right-handed pitcher Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn, and the 33rd pick in the 2026 Competitive Balance Round A draft. For the Orioles, the acquisition of Baz addresses a glaring need in their starting rotation, while the Rays continue their tradition of flipping controllable arms for long-term value.
Shane Baz, 26, brings with him both promise and questions. Once a top prospect, Baz debuted in 2021 but missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury—specifically, Tommy John surgery. His 2024 return saw flashes of excellence with a 3.06 ERA across 14 outings, but his first full season back in 2025 was more turbulent. Baz made 31 starts, posting a 10-12 record with a 4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 166.1 innings pitched. He struck out 176 batters and issued 64 walks, with a career-high 9.0% walk rate. His fastball velocity remained robust at 97 mph, and his advanced metrics—like a .303 BABIP and 4.36 FIP—suggested some of the struggles were not entirely due to bad luck.
Despite these mixed results, Baz’s underlying talent and age make him a tantalizing addition for the Orioles. General Manager Mike Elias explained the rationale behind paying a steep price for Baz: “There aren’t many quality starting pitchers available in the trade market, and fewer have three years of club control. The Orioles are guaranteed to have a guy they think could be a really good starter for three years. That’s what’s so valuable.”
For now, the Orioles project Baz as their No. 3 starter, slotted behind Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers and ahead of Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. Elias tempered expectations, saying, “I think Baz has the potential to be an ace, though I’m not predicting he’ll be a No. 1 starter in 2026.” The Orioles’ rotation has been a point of concern, and this move—along with the recent signing of Pete Alonso—signals Baltimore’s intent to compete in the AL East without delay.
Baz’s fit in Baltimore is intriguing on several levels. Camden Yards, his new home park, is neutral for right-handed hitters and should be a slight improvement over his previous situation at Steinbrenner Field. The Orioles’ defense is widely considered excellent, which could help Baz lower his ERA and WHIP. Fantasy managers are already recalibrating their draft boards, as Baz’s new role could mean more innings, wins, and strikeouts—especially valuable in points and roto leagues. One fantasy analysis projects Baz to deliver 11 wins, 8 losses, 180 innings pitched, 195 strikeouts, a 4.00 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP in 2026—a solid season for most formats.
Still, questions linger about Baz’s ceiling. While he’s shown the ability to dominate, his control issues and recent injury history temper expectations. In a recent Q&A, a fan asked if Baz could become an ace. Elias responded that Baz has the potential but cautioned against expecting him to immediately leapfrog established arms like Bradish or Grayson Rodriguez, who, incidentally, was selected just one spot ahead of Baz in their respective drafts. Baz has started 54 MLB games with a 4.25 ERA, while Rodriguez has started 43 with a 4.11 ERA—making their career trajectories a storyline to watch in the coming years.
For the Rays, the return is all about the future. Slater de Brun headlines the prospect haul. Drafted 37th overall in 2025, de Brun is a speedy, disciplined outfielder with on-base skills reminiscent of Corbin Carroll. While he’s not expected to impact the majors in 2026, dynasty league managers should keep a close eye on his development. Caden Bodine, the 30th pick in the 2025 draft, brings rare catching depth to the Rays’ system. Though catching prospects are notoriously volatile, Bodine’s defensive prowess gives him a legitimate shot at reaching the big leagues in the coming years.
Austin Overn and Michael Forret round out the package as deeper prospects. While neither is considered a blue-chip talent, both could see opportunities in Tampa Bay’s system sooner rather than later, given the organization’s track record of developing young talent.
The trade also has ramifications for the Orioles’ offseason strategy. With Baz now in the fold, Baltimore is less likely to pursue another cost-controlled starter via trade, especially given the high price paid for Baz. However, the Orioles still have room to add to their rotation, with free agents like Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez reportedly on their radar. Elias hinted that more moves could be on the horizon, stating, “We’ve been looking for moves, and when we find one that we like, we’ve been doing it, and we’ll continue to take that approach the rest of the way here. We still have like a month and a half to go [before Spring Training], so we’re going to stay hard at work.”
As the Orioles look to challenge the division’s powerhouses, much will depend on how Baz acclimates to his new surroundings and whether he can recapture the form that once made him one of baseball’s most coveted young arms. The team’s rotation, now featuring Baz, Bradish, Rogers, Kremer, and Wells, is improved but still has question marks. The addition of Baz, along with the pursuit of further upgrades, signals that Baltimore is serious about contending in 2026 and beyond.
For Tampa Bay, this is another chapter in their ongoing quest to build for the future while staying competitive in the present. By acquiring a haul of prospects and a valuable draft pick, the Rays maintain their reputation as one of the most forward-thinking organizations in the game.
With Spring Training on the horizon and the hot stove still burning, all eyes will be on Shane Baz as he embarks on the next chapter of his career in Baltimore. Will he fulfill his ace potential and help lead the Orioles back to postseason glory, or will the Rays’ gamble on youth and depth pay off in the long run? For now, the baseball world waits—and watches.
