The College Football Playoff is set for a blockbuster semifinal showdown as the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels collide at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl on January 8, 2026, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. With both teams coming off dramatic victories and boasting impressive seasons, anticipation is running high for what promises to be one of the most compelling matchups of the college football season.
Ole Miss (13-1, CFP No. 6 seed) punched its ticket to the semifinals in unforgettable fashion, edging out the Georgia Bulldogs 39-34 in a Sugar Bowl thriller on New Year’s Day. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss delivered a masterful performance, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns on 30-of-46 passing. The Rebels’ offensive fireworks were matched by some late-game heroics—Lucas Carneiro nailed three field goals, including a record-breaking 47-yarder with just six seconds left on the clock. That kick, which capped an electrifying drive set up by Chambliss’s 40-yard strike to De’Zhaun Stribling, sent the Ole Miss sideline into a frenzy and secured the Rebels’ place in the national semifinals.
"That’s a moment I’ll remember forever," Carneiro said, according to AP, after sprinting triumphantly toward his teammates. The drama didn’t end there: Ole Miss was awarded a safety on the ensuing kickoff when Georgia’s desperate lateral attempt ricocheted off the pylon—a rare twist that underscored the game’s chaotic finish. Georgia managed to recover an onside kick and attempted a wild, multi-lateral play as time expired, but the Rebels’ defense held firm, sealing the victory.
Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes (12-2, CFP No. 10 seed) arrive in Glendale riding a wave of confidence after toppling the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl. Miami’s defense was the story of the day, racking up five sacks and two interceptions, including a pick-six by Keionte Scott. Quarterback Carson Beck efficiently managed the offense, completing 19 of 26 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, while running back Mark Fletcher contributed 115 total yards and a receiving score. The Hurricanes’ ability to dominate the trenches and force turnovers has been their calling card all season, and they’ll need every bit of that defensive swagger to slow down Chambliss and the high-octane Ole Miss attack.
For Ole Miss, this postseason run marks a new era under head coach Pete Golding, who took over after Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU. Golding has quickly proven his mettle, guiding the Rebels to a perfect 2-0 record in his first two games at the helm. The Rebels’ offense is among the nation’s most explosive, ranking second in total yardage (498 yards per game) and 10th in scoring (37.5 points per game). Star running back Kewan Lacy, who led the SEC with 21 touchdowns this season, returned from a shoulder injury to play a crucial role against Georgia, providing a powerful complement to Chambliss’s aerial prowess.
Harrison Wallace III has emerged as a favorite target for Chambliss, hauling in nine receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown in the Sugar Bowl. That type of production will be vital against a Miami defense that ranks 11th nationally in total defense (285 yards allowed per game) and fourth in scoring defense (13 points per game). The Hurricanes’ pass rush, led by Rueben Bain, and their opportunistic secondary have been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks all year long. Miami has excelled at bottling up dual-threat QBs, holding Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and USF’s Byrum Brown to a combined 29 rushing yards and forcing three interceptions in their playoff opener.
On the other side, the Hurricanes’ offense may not be as flashy as Ole Miss’s, but it’s been ruthlessly efficient when it counts. Beck’s steady hand at quarterback, combined with Fletcher’s grinding ground game, gives Miami a balanced attack capable of wearing down defenses late. The offensive line will be tested by an Ole Miss defense that, while not as highly ranked as Miami’s, has shown a knack for making timely stops in big moments.
Ticket demand for this CFP semifinal is sky-high, with prices reflecting the stakes. As of January 1, fans can find tickets starting at $121 on StubHub, $139 on Viagogo, $158 on VividSeats, $169 on Ticketmaster, and $170 on Seat Geek. Lower bowl seats are commanding a premium, ranging from $276 to as much as $1,450 for prime locations behind the sidelines. For those unable to make the trip to Glendale, the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. Eastern (6:30 p.m. Central, 5:30 p.m. Mountain), with streaming options available via the ESPN app, FuboTV, and other platforms offering free trials for new users.
Analysts are already buzzing about the strategic chess match that awaits. It’s a classic strength-on-strength battle: Ole Miss’s dynamic offense versus Miami’s suffocating defense. The Rebels’ ability to stretch the field with Chambliss and Wallace, combined with Lacy’s punishing runs, will test every facet of the Hurricanes’ defense. Conversely, Miami’s disciplined defensive schemes and relentless pressure could force Chambliss into mistakes and keep the Rebels’ scoring in check.
Predictions for the matchup are split. Some experts give Ole Miss the edge thanks to their offensive firepower, while others believe Miami’s defense is more than capable of pulling off another upset. Score predictions range from a close Ole Miss win (27-21) to a low-scoring Miami triumph (20-10). With so much at stake, including a spot in the national championship game—potentially a home game for the Hurricanes if they advance—every snap will be magnified.
The College Football Playoff bracket has delivered its share of surprises this year, with both Miami and Ole Miss defying expectations to reach this stage. The Rebels dispatched Tulane in the first round before stunning Georgia, while Miami edged Texas A&M and then toppled Ohio State. Now, with the eyes of the college football world fixed on Glendale, only one team will earn the right to play for the sport’s ultimate prize on January 19.
With the countdown to kickoff underway, fans are left to ponder: Will Ole Miss’s electric offense light up the scoreboard again, or will Miami’s defense slam the door shut? One thing’s for sure—the Fiesta Bowl semifinal is shaping up to be an instant classic, and the winner will have truly earned their shot at a national title.
