The stage is set for a high-stakes showdown in Las Vegas as the Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears prepare to battle in the semifinal round of the Crown Tournament at the T-Mobile Arena. With tip-off scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET and national coverage on FOX, college basketball fans are in for a treat as two former Big 12 rivals square off for a coveted spot in the tournament final. Both teams enter with plenty to prove and a recent history that hints at another dramatic clash.
Oklahoma, boasting a 20-15 record, arrives in the semifinals riding a wave of momentum after a thrilling 90-86 overtime victory against the Colorado Buffaloes. That win showcased the Sooners’ offensive firepower and their ability to keep their composure in crunch time. Baylor, meanwhile, punched its ticket to this round with a dominant 67-48 win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers—a game that saw the Bears’ defense deliver perhaps its best performance of the season. The Bears stand at 17-16 and appear to be peaking at just the right moment.
These two programs share a storied rivalry, with Baylor having won nine of the last ten meetings between the schools. But Oklahoma’s recent form, combined with a balanced offensive attack, suggests the tide could be turning. The question on everyone’s mind: Can the Sooners finally break Baylor’s grip on this matchup, or will the Bears’ tournament resurgence continue?
Looking at the numbers, Oklahoma’s offense has been nothing short of electric this season. The Sooners average 82.9 points per game—good for 36th nationally—and shoot at a 46.7% clip. Leading the charge is Nijel Pack, who pours in 16.6 points per contest while dishing out 3.1 assists. Pack’s backcourt partner, Xzayvier Brown, adds both scoring punch and pace, while Tae Davis and Derrion Reid provide size, versatility, and a strong presence on the glass. Oklahoma’s rebounding numbers are solid, with 35.8 boards per game, and their three-point shooting (36.4%) keeps opposing defenses honest.
Oklahoma’s offense thrives on tempo and early attacks in the shot clock. According to USA TODAY Sports, the Sooners attempt 44.1% of their shots from beyond the arc, with 34.4% of their made baskets coming from deep. Their ability to space the floor and force defensive rotations has been a major asset. On the defensive end, Oklahoma allows 77.3 points per game—ranking 270th nationally—but their offense often compensates for any lapses. Turnovers are kept in check at 9.9 per game, one of the better marks in the country, which allows them to maintain rhythm and control in high-pressure moments.
Baylor, on the other hand, enters the semifinal with an offense that’s nearly as potent. The Bears average 82.1 points per game and shoot a robust 47.9% from the field, including an impressive 56.4% on two-point attempts. Cameron Carr leads the way with 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, forming a dynamic duo with Tounde Yessoufou, who brings explosive scoring to the table. Playmakers Obi Agbim and Isaac Williams add balance and perimeter shooting, while Daniel Skillings and Caden Powell provide muscle on the glass.
What’s turned heads in this tournament, though, is Baylor’s defense. Holding Minnesota to just 48 points in the quarterfinals, the Bears showed a level of intensity and discipline that had been missing for much of the season. Their transition scoring has also improved, and with a turnover rate of 11.3 per game, Baylor’s depth and athleticism let them keep up the pace for long stretches. If Carr and Yessoufou can set the tone early, and the Bears can continue to close out aggressively on Oklahoma’s shooters, they could very well extend their dominance in this rivalry.
Despite Baylor’s recent surge, there are questions about their ability to limit second-chance opportunities—a weakness that’s been exposed throughout the season. As noted in recent analysis, Baylor is strong on the offensive glass but has struggled defensively in preventing opponents from capitalizing on rebounds. Oklahoma, by contrast, is expected to win the rebounding battle, which could lead to a higher shot volume and more scoring opportunities for the Sooners. This edge on the glass, combined with Oklahoma’s ability to score both inside and out, has many observers leaning toward the Sooners as the safer pick.
Betting markets reflect just how tight this matchup is expected to be. As of Saturday, the spread sits at Baylor -1.5, with a moneyline of Baylor -123 and Oklahoma +103, and an over/under of 158.5 points according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Some analysts, however, are backing Oklahoma to win outright, citing the Sooners’ recent hot streak—nine wins in their last twelve games and seven victories in their last eight outings. Baylor, meanwhile, has stumbled down the stretch, losing fifteen of their last twenty-one games, though they have won two of their last three.
“Oklahoma is the well-balanced option, with the ability to score inside and outside. It’ll also win in the rebounding battle, affording it a higher shot volume in comparison to the Bears,” reads one expert’s preview. “Oklahoma is also one of the more efficient teams offensively, ranking 18th. The Sooners have utilized that offense to win nine of their last 12 games.”
With both teams featuring multiple double-digit scorers and plenty of athleticism, the semifinal promises to be a tightly contested affair. The key factors will likely be Oklahoma’s ability to maintain offensive efficiency, limit turnovers, and control the tempo—especially against a Baylor team that thrives in transition. For Baylor, the challenge is to keep up their improved defensive intensity and find ways to limit Oklahoma’s perimeter rhythm.
Fans can catch all the action live on FOX or stream it via Fubo, though regional restrictions may apply. The winner will move on to the Crown Tournament final, while the loser heads home, ending their season just short of the ultimate prize. Will Oklahoma’s recent surge and balanced attack be enough to finally get past Baylor, or will the Bears’ renewed defensive focus carry them to yet another win in this storied rivalry? With the stakes this high, expect nothing less than a battle to the final buzzer.
As tip-off approaches, anticipation builds in Las Vegas. Both teams have the firepower, both have something to prove, and only one will advance. College basketball fans, buckle up—this semifinal is shaping up to be a classic.