Stock markets in South Korea and the Middle East have been thrown into a whirlwind as tensions between the United States and Iran surge, sending shockwaves through oil prices and igniting widespread protests across Iranian universities. The latest developments have left investors, policymakers, and ordinary citizens alike grappling with uncertainty and bracing for what could come next.
On February 20, 2026, shares of S-Oil, one of South Korea's leading refiners, soared by 8.21% to close at 120,000 KRW, according to Seoul Economic Daily. This jump is part of a remarkable 44.58% rally since late last year, when the U.S. staged a surprise operation in Venezuela. The surge isn't limited to S-Oil—SK Innovation's stock climbed 7.59% the same day, while Heungkuk Oil experienced a staggering 24.36% leap in just one session. Other energy stocks, including SK Discovery, Jungang Enerbis, and Geukdong Yuhwa, also ended the day in the green, posting gains of 5.41%, 17.31%, and 3.45% respectively.
Energy-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mirrored these robust performances. The KODEX Energy Chemical ETF closed at 16,575 KRW on February 20, up 1.72% for the day and having jumped 5.16% the previous session—the ETF's highest rise this year. Meanwhile, the TIGER200 Energy Chemical ETF gained 4.84% on February 19 and another 2.92% on February 20, reflecting a broader investor rush into the sector.
What’s fueling this rally? The answer, as always, is geopolitics. With negotiations over Iran's nuclear program hitting a wall, the United States has ramped up military pressure in the region. President Donald Trump, speaking on February 19, 2026, issued a stern warning: Iran has a maximum of 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement, or, as he put it, “bad things” will happen. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. military officials are considering initial airstrikes against Iranian military and government facilities in the coming days, citing unnamed sources. The threat of a full-scale confrontation has sent ripples through global markets.
Oil prices have responded in kind. On February 20, 2026, the price for March delivery of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $66.39 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking a 5.57% increase from just a week earlier. Since the beginning of the year, WTI has surged by 15.82%. Rising oil prices typically translate into higher refining margins for companies like S-Oil and SK Innovation, boosting their operating profits and, in turn, their share prices. Refining margins—the difference between the price of petroleum products and the cost of crude oil and transportation—are a key metric for the industry, and recent trends have been favorable.
“With the geopolitical issues between the U.S. and Iran intensifying, we’re seeing correlated gains in defense, refining, and energy sectors,” a securities industry insider told Seoul Economic Daily. “We’re reviewing strategies to factor geopolitical uncertainty into our stock market responses.”
But the financial markets are only one part of the story. Inside Iran, the simmering discontent has boiled over into mass protests, particularly among university students. On February 21, 2026, large-scale demonstrations erupted across campuses in cities like Tehran, Gorgan, and Bandar Abbas. At Amir Kabir University of Technology, students dressed in black chanted slogans in honor of protest victims and against the Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. At Sharif University of Technology, similar chants echoed, with students and members of the Basij paramilitary clashing outside campus gates.
Tehran Medical University students staged marches and sit-ins to support their imprisoned peers and other detained young people. The protest movement has even spread to teachers, who, along with students, participated in “empty desk” strikes—a symbolic refusal to attend classes to mourn those killed in recent unrest and to voice opposition to the government.
This new wave of activism follows the brutal suppression of mass protests last month, which began in late December 2025 amid mounting economic hardship. Human Rights Activists in Iran, a U.S.-based group, estimates that about 7,000 people have died and over 50,000 have been arrested since the protests began. Iranian authorities, however, claim the death toll is closer to 3,000. The traditional 40th-day mourning ceremonies for the deceased have transformed into powerful expressions of dissent, turning what was once a solemn religious ritual into a rallying cry for resistance.
The timing of these protests could hardly be more consequential. President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran has set the stage for a showdown that may escalate rapidly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board is scheduled to convene in Vienna from March 2 to March 6, 2026, to consider new resolutions condemning Iran’s nuclear program. Diplomats expect that the board may refer the matter to the United Nations Security Council for possible additional sanctions. There’s precedent for such moves: in June 2025, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran just 24 hours after the IAEA board condemned Tehran’s lack of cooperation with inspectors.
As the IAEA meeting approaches, the world is left wondering whether history will repeat itself. Will international diplomacy prevail, or will the region slide into another cycle of violence? For now, all eyes are on Vienna, Washington, and Tehran, as the stakes grow higher by the day.
Back in the markets, investors are weighing their options. While rising oil prices are a boon for refiners and energy stocks, the underlying cause—escalating geopolitical risk—casts a long shadow. For ordinary Iranians, the stakes are even more personal, as economic uncertainty and political crackdowns threaten daily life and future prospects.
In the words of one financial analyst, “Markets love clarity, but right now, there’s nothing but uncertainty.” With student protests intensifying, oil prices climbing, and world leaders trading threats, the coming weeks promise to be anything but dull.
As the world watches, the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and human rights in Iran is once again center stage, with consequences that could ripple far beyond the region.