As the sun rose on March 9, 2026, financial markets across the globe were reeling from a perfect storm: an intensifying war in the Middle East, a dramatic spike in oil prices, and a rush of investor money toward safe havens like the US dollar and gold. The source of the turmoil? The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has not only upended oil supply chains but also rattled nerves from Wall Street to Seoul.
According to Investing.com, gold prices tumbled in early Asian trading on Monday, with spot gold dropping 2% to $5,064.71 per ounce and gold futures falling 1.6% to $5,073.21 per ounce. Yet, despite the slide, gold bullion managed to stay above the $5,000-per-ounce mark—a testament to its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis. The demand for gold surged as investors sought shelter from the escalating war and the economic aftershocks it triggered.
But gold wasn’t the only asset on a wild ride. The US dollar, long considered a bastion of safety, soared as well. The dollar index climbed 0.6%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.5%, reflecting the greenback’s status as the go-to refuge in uncertain times. Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Maeil Kyungjae, “Given the US is a net energy exporter and the dollar's safe-haven status, it is the biggest beneficiary in the current environment. How much further it rises will depend on the depth and duration of the conflict.”
Meanwhile, oil markets were thrown into chaos. Brent crude futures for May delivery leapt 16.5% to $107.99 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged 18% to $107.38 per barrel. On March 8, WTI futures for April had already soared 20.15% to $109.24 per barrel, breaking the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel threshold for the first time since July 2022, as reported by Reuters and Investing.com. Brent crude, too, pierced $109 and briefly hit $111.04 per barrel.
The direct cause? The Strait of Hormuz—a slender waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows—was effectively closed following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities. Bloomberg reported that tanker traffic through the strait had plummeted by 90% within a week of the attacks, with only a handful of ships, mostly Iranian or Chinese, making the passage. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) confirmed nine ship attacks in the strait over the past week, resulting in seven deaths. The blockade has left Middle Eastern producers scrambling for storage space and forced them to cut production, deepening market turmoil.
Major oil exporters including Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates announced production cuts as their storage facilities filled up. Iraq’s oil production, for instance, nosedived from 4.3 million barrels per day before the war to just 1.3 million barrels per day, with exports dropping from 3.33 million barrels per day last month to 800,000 barrels per day by March 8. Reuters reported that Iraq’s exports were expected to halt completely by that evening, as only two tankers had managed to load and depart.
Goldman Sachs issued a stark warning: if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume, international oil prices could rocket to $150 per barrel by the end of March, surpassing the highs seen in 2008 and 2022. “If oil production through the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels throughout March, especially for refined products, we could see prices exceed previous records,” the investment bank noted in a memo to investors.
JP Morgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman painted a similarly sobering picture, telling Reuters that the most likely short-term scenario would be oil prices spiking to $120 per barrel before stabilizing as the conflict cools. However, without a decisive political solution, he predicted Brent crude could average $80 per barrel in the first half of 2026. Kasman added, “Such a scenario could lower global economic growth by about 0.6 percentage points on an annualized basis and push consumer inflation up by 1 percentage point year-over-year.” If the conflict drags on and prices stay elevated, he warned, the world could be staring down the barrel of a recession.
Back in the equity markets, the panic was palpable. As Maeil Kyungjae reported, global stock indices slumped sharply on March 9, with US stock index futures tumbling more than 1.5% and Asian markets following suit. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged toward 30 on Friday, marking its biggest reversal in nearly a year. Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told Bloomberg, “The worst may not have hit stocks yet. Until there’s a concrete positive development, risk aversion will likely persist.”
The energy crisis also triggered a rapid reallocation of global capital. Investors abandoned riskier assets, pouring money into the dollar and gold. Yet, as Investing.com noted, gold’s rally was capped by fears that the inflationary impact of soaring oil prices could prompt central banks to take a more hawkish stance, limiting the upside for bullion. Indeed, last week, the dollar outperformed gold as the preferred safe haven, while oil’s supply shock dominated the commodities space.
Other precious metals weren’t spared. On March 9, spot silver fell 2.5% to $82.12 per ounce, and spot platinum dropped 4.2% to $2,050.29 per ounce. The volatility was further fueled by Friday’s disappointing US nonfarm payroll numbers, which had briefly raised hopes for interest rate cuts. But with inflation risks mounting, attention quickly shifted back to the threat posed by high oil prices.
On the geopolitical front, the war showed no signs of abating. Iran officially named Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a noted hardliner—as its new Supreme Leader, signaling a continued tough stance toward the West. The US and Israeli airstrikes that triggered the conflict have left the region on edge, with no clear resolution in sight.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to reassure markets, telling CNN on March 8 that US efforts to neutralize Iran’s tanker threat were ongoing and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would gradually resume within a few weeks. “Even in the worst case, it’s a matter of weeks, not months,” he said. Still, his words did little to calm the jitters. As Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial, put it, “The problem is no longer just the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supply disruptions are spreading throughout the Middle East, maximizing risk aversion among already anxious investors.”
With oil prices at levels not seen since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war, the world is bracing for more economic pain. As the conflict grinds into its second week, investors, policymakers, and ordinary citizens alike are left wondering just how much more turbulence lies ahead.