All eyes are on Arlington, Texas, as the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes prepare to clash with the #10 Miami Hurricanes in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, marking a pivotal College Football Playoff quarterfinal. The stakes couldn’t be higher—who will seize the moment on New Year’s Eve and punch their ticket to the semifinals?
Kickoff is set for December 31, 2025, at 7:30 p.m. ET inside the iconic AT&T Stadium, affectionately known as Jerry World. The Buckeyes, coming off a bitter loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship on December 6, are looking to reassert their dominance. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are riding high after a gritty 10-3 victory over Texas A&M on December 20, a game that showcased Miami’s defensive prowess and resilience under pressure.
Oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as a hefty 9.5-point favorite, with the over/under hovering around 40.5 to 42.5 points—a testament to the defensive firepower both teams bring to the gridiron. This spread is the largest among the four quarterfinal matchups, underscoring the general consensus that the Buckeyes hold the upper hand. But if there’s one thing college football fans know, it’s that nothing is guaranteed under the playoff spotlight.
Let’s talk about the Hurricanes’ journey. Miami’s ticket to Arlington was punched in a defensive slugfest against Texas A&M. The Hurricanes’ defense was nothing short of spectacular, forcing three turnovers and notching seven sacks. "It was a defensive masterclass," as one analyst put it, and Miami bent but never broke, holding the Aggies to just a field goal. Yet, the offense sputtered, putting up only 10 points and struggling to move the ball through the air. Quarterback Carson Beck, though a seasoned presence, found himself under siege and unable to find much rhythm. The real spark came from running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who rumbled for 172 yards and provided a much-needed boost to Miami’s ground game.
Miami’s defense has built its reputation on chaos, ranking #6 nationally in Havoc rate. They thrive on disrupting opponents, but they now face a daunting challenge: an Ohio State offense that’s been the model of efficiency all season. The Buckeyes allowed just 11 sacks and committed only nine turnovers in 2025—a remarkable feat considering the level of competition. Can Miami’s aggressive front unsettle Ohio State’s usually rock-solid protection? That’s the million-dollar question.
On the flip side, the Buckeyes are eager to prove that their stumble in the Big Ten title game was a mere blip. Head coach Ryan Day’s squad boasts the nation’s top-ranked scoring defense, surrendering a paltry 8.2 points per game. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has orchestrated a unit loaded with future NFL talent, and the numbers back it up: Ohio State finished #1 in yards per play allowed and led the nation in several advanced metrics, including SP+ defensive rankings.
Quarterback Julian Sayin has been a revelation for the Buckeyes, leading the country with a 78.4% completion rate and racking up 3,323 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Sayin’s chemistry with star wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate has kept opposing secondaries on their heels all season. However, Sayin is coming off a shaky performance in the Big Ten Championship, where Ohio State managed only 10 points. Will he bounce back under the bright lights of the Cotton Bowl?
The Hurricanes will need more than just a stout defense to keep pace. Beck, while experienced in big games, has shown a tendency toward costly mistakes, especially when pressured. He’s up against a defense that specializes in making quarterbacks uncomfortable. If Miami can’t get the passing game going, they’ll have to lean heavily on Fletcher Jr. and hope to grind out drives in a low-possession, field-position battle.
Analysts are split on how this one might play out. Some project Ohio State to win by a margin similar to the spread—think 27-18 or 24-19—while others see a tighter contest, especially if Miami’s defense can rattle Sayin and force turnovers. The total points line reflects the expectation of a defensive struggle, with both teams ranking among the nation’s best in red-zone stops and limiting explosive plays.
Betting trends offer intriguing angles. Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 8-4 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 25-13-2 against teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher. Conversely, Miami under Mario Cristobal is just 1-3 as underdogs in that same spread range and has struggled to cover after upset wins. But as every fan knows, past performance doesn’t always predict playoff outcomes—especially when underdogs have a chip on their shoulder.
Player prop bets are also drawing attention. Julian Sayin is pegged to throw over 1.5 touchdowns, a nod to his efficiency in the red zone. Meanwhile, Carson Beck is expected to struggle against the Buckeyes’ elite secondary, with projections placing him under 192.5 passing yards. Both teams have shown a penchant for conservative, field-position-oriented play in big games, so don’t be surprised if this one turns into a chess match between two defensive masterminds.
Special teams could also play a pivotal role. Miami’s Malachi Toney had a rough outing against Texas A&M, but he’s capable of flipping the field with a big return. If either side can generate a spark in the return game or force a key turnover on special teams, it could tip the balance in a contest where points are expected to be at a premium.
Looking at the broader playoff picture, the winner of this quarterfinal will face either Ole Miss or Georgia in the semifinals. For Ohio State, it’s a chance to erase the sting of their conference championship loss and continue their quest for another national title. For Miami, it’s an opportunity to keep the Cinderella story alive and prove they belong among college football’s elite.
With kickoff fast approaching, anticipation is reaching a fever pitch. Will Ohio State’s defense hold firm and set up another championship run, or can Miami’s havoc-wreaking front pull off a New Year’s Eve shocker? One thing’s for sure: the Cotton Bowl Classic is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest that could come down to the final possession.
As the teams take the field under the bright lights in Arlington, fans everywhere are settling in for what promises to be a hard-fought, memorable playoff clash. The action is about to begin, and the storylines are as compelling as ever.
