As the nation’s eyes turn to Virginia and New Jersey for the November 5, 2025, gubernatorial elections, familiar faces and old rivalries are taking center stage—though not always in person. Former President Barack Obama, still the most popular figure in Democratic circles nearly a decade after leaving the White House, has thrown his weight behind Democratic candidates Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, now ten months into his second term, has chosen to stay away from the campaign trail, opting for phone rallies and social events at Mar-a-Lago rather than stumping alongside his party’s nominees.
Obama’s appearances for Spanberger and Sherrill mark a sharp, almost personal, rebuke of Trump’s presidency. According to the Associated Press, Obama didn’t mince words as he lambasted Trump for “lawlessness and recklessness” and described his economic policies as “shambolic.” In front of an enthusiastic crowd in Virginia, Obama declared, “The stakes are now clear. We don’t need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. We don’t need to ask ourselves how much more coarse and mean our culture can become. Elections matter, and they matter to you.”
His message was clear: the upcoming elections are not just about state leadership, but about sending a national message. Obama urged voters to “set a glorious example for the nation” by rejecting what he called “nominees loyal to a president with autocratic impulses.” Yet, he was careful not to alienate those who voted for Trump in 2024 out of frustration with inflation and a turbulent economy. In New Jersey, he asked pointedly, “Has any of that gotten better for you?”
While Obama crisscrossed the states rallying support, Trump remained physically absent. The president’s only campaign involvement was a phone rally for Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate in New Jersey, and a tepid endorsement of Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. Instead, Trump spent the weekend at his Florida estate, attending a themed party and a dinner for MAGA, Inc., a super PAC run by his allies. The Associated Press notes that Trump’s arms-length approach reflects a complicated reality: his brand remains intensely popular among the GOP base but is divisive among the broader electorate.
On the Republican side, the candidates focused on local issues rather than the national drama. In New Jersey, Ciattarelli, a lifelong “Jersey guy,” concentrated on proposals to lower energy costs and property taxes, and frequently referenced his family’s deep roots in the state. According to The New York Times, he made only passing references to Trump, mainly to criticize Sherrill for “mentioning him so much.” Earle-Sears, meanwhile, campaigned alongside outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, promising to lower taxes, defend parental rights in education, and resist business regulations. “We are not going back,” she said at a rally, pointedly avoiding any mention of Trump but attacking Spanberger as representing “the darkness.”
But for Spanberger and Sherrill, both former members of Congress who first won their seats in 2018 by riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, the strategy is clear: make the election a referendum on the president and his policies. As reported by The New York Times, Sherrill has labeled her opponent “the Trump of Trenton” and told voters, “That’s not who I am going to serve as your governor.” She has focused her campaign on issues like the Hudson River rail tunnel, which lost federal funding after Trump’s administration “terminated” support, and on economic issues exacerbated by tariffs and rising costs.
Spanberger, for her part, has made opposition to Trump’s policies the centerpiece of her campaign. “Amid all of the chaos coming out of Washington and all of this unsteadiness that is hurting so many of our communities, we are going to elect a governor who will stand up for Virginia,” she told supporters in Alexandria. Her campaign has zeroed in on the impact of federal cuts and the ongoing government shutdown, which affects more than 300,000 federal employees in Virginia, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by the Associated Press.
Both Democrats have also made support for abortion rights a key part of their platforms. Spanberger, especially, has emphasized this in Virginia, the last Southern state not to impose new restrictions or bans in recent years. Sherrill, meanwhile, is attempting to break a decades-long trend: Democrats have not won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in New Jersey since 1961. With a substantial registration advantage—860,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the state—the question is whether her anti-Trump message can mobilize the party’s base, particularly Black and Latino voters who drifted right in 2024.
Republicans, for their part, have sought to localize the elections. Ciattarelli has focused on taxes, public safety, and education, while Earle-Sears has highlighted parental rights and regulatory reform. Yet, Trump’s shadow looms large. While Earle-Sears has previously embraced Trump, she has avoided mentioning him on the trail, instead attacking Spanberger as an extremist on transgender rights—a tactic reminiscent of Trump’s own attacks on Democrats in 2024.
Obama’s involvement has given Democrats a boost, but not everyone in the party is convinced that rerunning the 2018 playbook will work. As The New York Times reports, some Democrats worry the strategy of focusing on rejecting the president may eventually run its course. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona commented, “2028 could be a totally different animal.” Even so, the races in Virginia and New Jersey—held in the year after a presidential contest—have long served as a barometer for national sentiment. “The boogeyman is Trump,” said Mo Butler, a Democratic consultant and former chief of staff to Senator Cory Booker. “It’s very difficult for a Democratic candidate—especially statewide in this environment when Trump is president—not to run that sort of campaign.”
Polling reflects the stakes: 56 percent of likely voters in New Jersey and 57 percent in Virginia disapprove of Trump’s job performance, according to recent surveys cited by The New York Times. National Democrats see these races as the first real opportunity to mount a comeback after last year’s bruising presidential defeat. Pete Buttigieg, the former secretary of transportation, told a crowd at a Sherrill rally, “You get to send a message right here in New Jersey that a free people bows to no king. Not three years from now, but this coming Tuesday.”
In the closing days of the campaign, Spanberger’s speeches have touched on all the main points of Democratic grievance: sprawling cuts to the federal workforce, erratic trade policies, health care spending reductions, and aggressive immigration enforcement. Allies like Alfonso Lopez, a Virginia state delegate, have been even more direct: “What is happening is not OK.”
Meanwhile, the broader political environment is shifting. Other Democrats, like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom, are pursuing aggressive redistricting efforts to counter Republican moves and maximize Democratic power. In New York City, progressive candidates are challenging the party establishment with bold promises and social media savvy. Yet, for Spanberger and Sherrill, the bet is that a steady hand and a clear anti-Trump message will still resonate with voters hungry for stability and change.
As ballots are cast and the results come in, these races will offer a telling snapshot of where the nation stands—on Trump, on the Democratic Party’s future, and on the issues that matter most to voters in 2025.
