Nuclear Treaty Collapse And Arms Deals Escalate Tensions

As clocks struck midnight in Prague on February 6, 2026, a seismic shift occurred in global security: the New START treaty, the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, officially expired. For the first time in over half a century, there are no binding limits on the size or deployment of the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. The expiration, confirmed by multiple outlets including BBC and Zona Militar, has set off alarms among diplomats, defense analysts, and peace activists worldwide, with many fearing a new era of nuclear brinkmanship and instability.

Signed in 2010, the New START treaty capped both the U.S. and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, delivered by no more than 700 launch systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers. The agreement also mandated 18 short-notice, on-site inspections per year and required both sides to exchange detailed data on their arsenals twice annually. These transparency measures, lauded by arms control experts, were intended to build trust and prevent misunderstandings that could lead to catastrophic escalation.

But the treaty’s final years were fraught with challenges. According to reporting from BBC, the COVID-19 pandemic first disrupted the crucial inspection regime, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022—followed by robust NATO support for Kyiv—further soured relations and made a return to normal verification procedures impossible. The diplomatic stalemate left the treaty on life support, with both sides blaming the other for its unraveling.

Despite the mounting obstacles, there were glimmers of hope for a last-minute extension. Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated his willingness to prolong the treaty’s limits for another year. Former U.S. President Donald Trump echoed that sentiment at the time, saying, “sounds like a good idea to me.” Yet, in a January 2026 interview with The New York Times, Trump struck a more fatalistic tone: “If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement.” As of the treaty’s expiration, no negotiations for a successor agreement are underway, leaving a dangerous vacuum in the architecture of nuclear arms control.

The consequences of this lapse are already reverberating. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a group known for its symbolic ‘Doomsday Clock,’ moved the clock to 85 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been. Their decision was directly influenced by the end of New START, which they said “removes the last remaining guardrail against an unconstrained nuclear arms race between the two largest nuclear powers.”

“When you take off nuclear restrictions, that’s a big problem for the world,” Trump once warned, according to BBC. His words now ring with new urgency as military planners and policymakers grapple with the reality of unchecked arsenals on both sides. With no limits in place, both Washington and Moscow are free to expand their nuclear stockpiles, modernize delivery systems, and potentially deploy new technologies that could destabilize already fraught relations.

But the repercussions extend far beyond the U.S. and Russia. The collapse of New START comes at a moment when other nations are seeking to bolster their own military capabilities, sometimes in ways that directly challenge American interests and global norms. Nowhere is this more apparent than in North Africa, where Algeria’s pursuit of advanced Russian weaponry has become a flashpoint in U.S. foreign policy.

On February 4, 2026, just days before New START’s expiration, the U.S. State Department announced it was reviewing possible sanctions on Algeria under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The reason? Algeria’s planned acquisition of around a dozen Su-57E stealth fighters from Russia, a move that U.S. officials say could have profound implications for regional security and the global arms market.

During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Robert Palladino, head of the Near Eastern Affairs Office, made the U.S. position clear: “We work closely with the Algerian government on issues where we have common ground. But we certainly disagree on many matters, and the arms deal is an example of what the United States considers problematic. We use the diplomatic tools we have, often in private, to protect our interests and stop what we consider unacceptable.”

Algeria’s air force, which currently relies on aircraft such as the Su-30MKA, MiG-29S/M/M2, and Su-24MK2, is seeking to replace its retired MiG-25s with the Su-57Es. Russian sources cited by Zona Militar report that the first two Su-57Es have already been delivered and have completed demonstration flights. Moscow, meanwhile, continues to develop upgrades for the Su-57, including a panoramic cockpit display and two-dimensional thrust-vectoring nozzles designed to enhance maneuverability—features influenced by lessons learned in the Ukraine conflict.

The U.S. threat of sanctions is not an idle one. The CAATSA law was previously used to penalize Turkey after it purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems. The fallout was dramatic: Turkey was expelled from the F-35 fighter program, despite having invested $1.4 billion in the project. According to Zona Militar, the U.S. government did not reimburse Ankara for its investment, and negotiations to resolve the impasse—including the possible handover of the S-400 systems—are ongoing. As U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack stated in December, “I think these issues will be resolved in the next four to six months.”

Algeria’s modernization drive doesn’t stop with the Su-57. The country is also expecting deliveries of Su-35S fighters and Su-34 fighter-bombers. Observers have spotted at least two Su-35S aircraft in Algerian livery conducting test flights, and satellite imagery from March 2025 showed a Su-35S at Oum El Bouaghi Airport. Leaked documents suggest Algeria plans to equip about 14 Su-34s with electronic warfare packages, and images of these aircraft in distinctive desert camouflage over Zhukovsky, Russia, indicate the advanced state of production.

As Algeria upgrades its arsenal, the U.S. faces a dilemma: how to balance its interests in curbing Russian influence and advanced arms sales with the risk of alienating a key regional player. The Turkish precedent looms large, offering both a warning and a possible roadmap for how future disputes could unfold.

This confluence of events—the collapse of the last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty and the proliferation of advanced weaponry in volatile regions—has prompted renewed debate over the future of global security. Some experts argue that the end of New START could spur a new arms race, not just between Washington and Moscow, but among other powers seeking to hedge their bets in an increasingly uncertain world. Others hold out hope that the specter of unconstrained arsenals will force leaders back to the negotiating table, lest the world inch even closer to midnight.

For now, the world stands at a crossroads, with old guardrails gone and new dangers on the horizon. The decisions made in the coming months—by Washington, Moscow, and capitals across the globe—will shape the nuclear landscape for generations to come.