As Norwegians cast their ballots in a pivotal two-day parliamentary election on September 7 and 8, 2025, the nation finds itself at a crossroads. The outcome, which remains too close to call, will not only shape domestic policies but could send ripples across Europe’s energy markets and even global investment circles. With at least nine parties expected to secure seats in the 169-member Storting, the contest pits a centre-left bloc led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party against a centre-right alliance dominated by the populist Progress Party and the Conservatives, as reported by Reuters and Al Jazeera.
At the heart of the campaign lies a familiar but urgent set of concerns: the rising cost of living, persistent inequality, and the future of Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund—the world’s largest. The fund, established in the early 1990s to manage North Sea oil revenues, has become a lightning rod for controversy, especially as its investments in Israeli companies have drawn sharp criticism amid the ongoing war in Gaza. According to Al Jazeera, this debate has seeped into the electoral battleground, with some left-wing parties demanding divestment from firms linked to Israel, while others urge caution to preserve the fund’s apolitical reputation.
The Labour Party, under Støre’s leadership since 2021, is seeking to extend its rule after a term marked by minority governance. Since taking office, Støre has relied on the support of the agrarian Centre Party and the Socialist Left to pass legislation. However, this election’s razor-thin margins may force Labour to broaden its coalition further, potentially including the Communist Party and the Greens. Jonas Stein, a political scientist at the University of Tromsø, described this scenario as a "tutti frutti" coalition, warning that such an alliance could pull government policy in divergent directions.
Polls conducted in the week leading up to the election and analyzed by pollofpolls.no suggest that Labour and its left-leaning allies could secure around 87 to 88 seats—just over the 85 needed for a majority but a notable drop from the 100 seats the left commanded in 2021. The Progress Party and Conservatives, along with their right-wing partners, are projected to win about 81 seats, keeping the contest within the margin of statistical error. As Reuters notes, only the leaders of the three largest parties—Labour’s Støre, the Conservatives’ Erna Solberg, and the Progress Party’s Sylvi Listhaug—are in the running for prime minister.
Norway’s proportional representation system ensures that no single party is likely to win an outright majority. Instead, coalition-building and post-election negotiations will determine the next government. The country’s 5.6 million citizens are acutely aware that the election’s outcome could affect not just their own lives, but also Europe’s energy security and the management of the sovereign wealth fund. Norway has become Europe’s top gas supplier, especially after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine led the European Union to seek alternatives to Russian energy. The question of whether to open new areas for oil and gas exploration—or to impose tighter restrictions, as demanded by the Greens and Communists—remains fiercely contested.
On the campaign trail, Labour has advocated for broadly stable taxes, but some of its allies are pushing for higher rates on the wealthy to finance tax cuts for low-income families and expand public services. The Progress Party and Conservatives, by contrast, have promised sweeping tax reductions and public sector reform. The Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg, has also called for the abolition of the wealth tax, arguing it unfairly penalizes business owners. Meanwhile, the Progress Party, under Sylvi Listhaug, has captured about 21 percent support in the polls—outpacing the Conservatives at 14 percent—and has staked out a more populist, anti-immigration stance. However, disagreements between Solberg and Listhaug over who should lead a potential right-wing government have left some voters uncertain.
For many Norwegians, pocketbook issues dominate. An August survey by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten found that inequality had overtaken defense and national security as the top voter concern. Inflation, particularly in food prices, has climbed nearly 6 percent over the past year, putting additional strain on household budgets. Economic stability, jobs, and the future of public services are also high on the agenda.
But it’s the sovereign wealth fund that has captured international attention. As of June 30, 2025, the fund held $2.2 billion in 61 Israeli companies, representing about 0.1 percent of its global investments. In response to public pressure and media scrutiny—especially revelations about investments in companies supplying equipment used in the conflict in Gaza—the fund has divested from at least 11 Israeli firms this year, according to Al Jazeera. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg, a former NATO chief, has indicated that more divestments may be on the horizon.
The Socialist Left has drawn a line in the sand, insisting it will only support a Labour-led government if the fund fully divests from companies tied to what it calls "Israel’s illegal warfare in Gaza." Labour, for its part, has rejected this ultimatum, though it may be forced to reconsider if coalition arithmetic demands it. Støre told NRK, "Norwegian funds should not be invested in companies that contribute to violations of international law and the horrific war we see in Gaza."
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have emphasized the importance of keeping the fund’s investments free from political interference. "Having this principle that investments are done without political influence has been important for us," Solberg said on August 6. This stance has found resonance with some voters and international observers, but has also sparked diplomatic friction. The US State Department recently expressed concern over the fund’s divestment from US construction giant Caterpillar, and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham went so far as to threaten tariffs and visa revocations in retaliation, calling Norway’s actions "beyond offensive" and "outright BS."
Geopolitics loom large in the minds of Norwegian voters. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine have heightened anxieties in this Arctic-bordering nation. Norway’s export-oriented economy and its role as a key energy supplier to Europe mean that changes in government policy could have far-reaching consequences, particularly as the EU moves to phase out Russian gas by 2027. Some parties have even campaigned on limiting electricity exports to the continent—a move that would breach Norway’s obligations as part of the single European market and could provoke a backlash from Brussels.
As voting closed at 19:00 GMT on September 8, exit polls began to trickle in, but the final composition of the next government may not be known until post-election negotiations conclude. With so many parties in play and coalition talks likely to be complicated, Norwegians—and their European neighbors—are bracing for a period of uncertainty. Yet one thing is clear: the choices made in Oslo this week will reverberate far beyond Norway’s borders, shaping the country’s future and its place in a rapidly changing world.