The UEFA Champions League knockout round always brings a special kind of electricity, but Wednesday’s clash at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku between Qarabag FK and Newcastle United has a unique flavor all its own. For the Azerbaijani champions, this is uncharted territory: their first-ever Champions League knockout tie, and a chance to test their mettle against one of England’s rising sides. For Newcastle, it’s a trip into the unknown—both geographically and competitively—as they face a club from Azerbaijan for the very first time.
Kick-off is set for 12:45 p.m. ET (5:45 p.m. GMT), with the action broadcast live on Paramount+ and TUDN in the United States, TNT Sports 1 and discovery+ in the UK, DAZN and fuboTV in Canada, and a host of other platforms worldwide. The anticipation is palpable, and both teams come into the match with plenty to prove.
Qarabag FK enters the contest as massive underdogs, but don’t count them out just yet. Under the stewardship of manager Gurban Gurbanov, the club finished the Champions League league phase with a 3-1-4 record, good for 10 points and the 22nd spot out of 24. Their campaign was a rollercoaster—memorable victories over Benfica and Eintracht Frankfurt, a gritty draw against Chelsea, but also a bruising 6-0 defeat to Liverpool that nearly derailed their hopes. That last gasp point against Chelsea proved decisive, securing their historic playoff berth.
Resilience in Baku has been their calling card. Qarabag posted a 2-1-1 record at home in the league phase, including a rousing comeback win over Frankfurt and a hard-fought draw with Chelsea. Their domestic form is strong as well—they currently sit second in the Azerbaijan Premier League and have won their domestic league 11 times in the last 12 seasons. But their recent cup form has wobbled, with a 2-1 loss to Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan Cup quarterfinal first leg. The squad’s European pedigree is growing: Qarabag was the first Azerbaijani club to reach the Champions League group stage (2017) and made a splash in the 2023-24 Europa League Round of 16.
Yet, history is not on their side when it comes to English opposition. Qarabag is winless in nine European matches against Premier League teams, with just one draw (against Chelsea this season) and eight defeats. In fact, they’ve failed to score in seven of their last eight games against English clubs. Still, as the old football adage goes, records are made to be broken.
Qarabag’s projected lineup features Kochalski in goal, with Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, and Cafarquliyev across the back. The midfield is expected to be anchored by Bicalho and Jankovic, with Andrade, Montiel, and Zoubir providing support for lone forward Camilo Duran. Notably, Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev (unspecified), Jeremie Gnali (ineligible), and Ramil Sheydayev (ineligible) are unavailable for the hosts. Duran, the Colombian forward, has been their main attacking threat, averaging 2.3 shots per 90 minutes in the Champions League and coming off a season-best performance against Frankfurt.
On the other side, Newcastle United arrives as clear favorites, both on the pitch and at the bookmakers. They’re listed at -255 to win the first leg, with a draw at +400 and Qarabag at +650 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Magpies finished 12th in the Champions League league phase with 14 points (4-2-2 record), just two points shy of automatic qualification for the Round of 16. Their European campaign has been a bright spot in an otherwise inconsistent season—currently 10th in the Premier League, Newcastle’s domestic form has been patchy, but they’re coming off impressive wins over Tottenham (2-1) and Aston Villa (3-1) in the FA Cup.
Injuries have tested Eddie Howe’s squad depth. Key midfielders Bruno Guimaraes (muscle) and Joelinton (groin) are out, along with defenders Tino Livramento (hamstring), Fabian Schar (ankle), and Emil Krafth (knee). Lewis Miley is a doubt with a knee issue. That puts the spotlight squarely on Italian midfielder Sandro Tonali, who has stepped up in recent matches—his two-goal performance against Aston Villa was a particular highlight. "Tonali was superb in the second half of the FA Cup win against Aston Villa, and it wasn't just because of the two goals he scored," noted one report. His ability to press, win the ball high, and orchestrate play will be crucial in Baku’s hostile atmosphere.
Newcastle’s predicted lineup features Pope in goal, a back four of Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, and Hall, with Ramsey and Tonali in midfield. The attacking quartet is expected to be Elanga, Willock, Gordon, and Woltemade. The Magpies have been solid defensively in Europe, conceding just seven goals in the league phase, but their away form is less convincing—they’ve won only two of their last 15 away matches in European competition, and conceded in three of four away games in the league phase.
What can fans expect from this clash? While Newcastle boasts superior squad depth and quality, Qarabag’s home resilience is not to be underestimated. The Azerbaijani side has scored at least two goals in every Champions League home match this season, but defensive frailties remain a concern—they conceded 21 goals in the league phase, tied for second-most in the competition, and have allowed goals in six consecutive matches. Newcastle, meanwhile, averages over two goals per Champions League game and will look to exploit Qarabag’s defensive lapses, especially if given the space Liverpool enjoyed in their 6-0 rout.
Bookmakers and pundits alike expect both teams to find the net. “My best bet for this match is on both teams to score,” wrote Blake Krass for DraftKings Sportsbook, citing Qarabag’s ability to create chances and Newcastle’s vulnerability away from home. The consensus score prediction? Qarabag FK 1-3 Newcastle United, but with the tie still open heading into the second leg at St. James’ Park.
As the teams prepare to walk out in front of a raucous crowd in Baku, the stakes couldn’t be higher. For Qarabag, it’s a chance to make history and prove they belong on Europe’s biggest stage. For Newcastle, it’s an opportunity to keep their continental adventure alive and inject some much-needed momentum into their campaign. The action is set, the narratives are swirling, and with both sides hungry for a breakthrough, fans can expect plenty of drama under the floodlights in Azerbaijan.
One thing’s for sure: this Champions League playoff is far from settled, and all eyes will be on Baku to see which team seizes the initiative ahead of the return leg in England.