New York City is bracing for another round of winter weather as forecasters track a developing coastal storm poised to impact the region from Sunday, February 23, 2026, into Monday, February 24, 2026. The storm, which some meteorologists have dubbed a potential "bomb cyclone," is stirring up plenty of chatter—and uncertainty—about how much snow and disruption it might bring to the city and its surrounding areas.
According to ABC 7 Eyewitness News, Chief Meteorologist Lee Goldberg and the AccuWeather team are closely monitoring the storm as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. The current consensus among forecasters is that the New York City metro area is likely to see light to moderate snowfall, with accumulations generally ranging from 1 to 3 inches in the interior parts of the region. However, for the east end of Long Island and southern New Jersey coast, totals could reach 3 to 6 inches. The storm is expected to intensify rapidly on Sunday as it tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with gusty winds accompanying the snowfall, especially along coastal areas.
But if there’s one thing all the experts agree on, it’s the uncertainty. The city sits on the western edge of the developing low-pressure system, meaning even minor shifts in the storm’s track could dramatically alter the snowfall totals. As FOX 5 NY meteorologist Liv Johnson explained, “A coastal low is really what’s going to determine what happens. If this low moves closer, that increases our chance of seeing some snowfall. If it stays further offshore, which the models are just not agreeing on right now, then our chances decrease.”
The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a 50% chance of snow for New York City on Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall could begin as early as 7 a.m. on Sunday, with the heaviest accumulation expected from Sunday afternoon through the night before tapering off early Monday morning. John Murray at the NWS emphasized the variability in the models, stating, “There's still some model guidance that has some variance in terms of the track. We’re keeping a close eye on those and seeing how the models solutions will evolve over the next day.”
For those hoping for a break from winter’s grip, the forecast offers little relief. Temperatures are expected to dip into the mid-30s on Sunday and remain chilly into early next week. Gusty northeast winds—potentially reaching 30 to 40 mph on Sunday—will add to the blustery conditions, and there is a risk of coastal flooding during high tides on both Sunday and Monday, according to the NWS.
Residents are being urged to take precautions. The New York City Emergency Management agency advised, “Be ready to adjust travel plans Sunday and Monday morning, including caregiving schedules. Avoid unnecessary travel Sunday and Monday morning if you can to allow snow operations crews to operate. If you are traveling, use mass transit and expect travel delays.” Governor Kathy Hochul echoed these sentiments, reminding New Yorkers to “be sure to travel smart and leave yourself ample time to get to where you’re going. Pack your car with emergency essentials and drive slowly as slick roadways can be dangerous.”
While the main scenario points to a moderate snowfall, some models are hinting at the possibility of a more significant event. As Curbed reported, Accuweather’s current probabilities suggest a 17% chance of 3 to 6 inches of snow and a 13% chance of more than 6 inches falling between Sunday morning and Monday afternoon. In a more dramatic scenario, the storm could bring up to a foot of snow to the area, though forecasters caution that this is unlikely unless the storm’s path shifts northwest and intensifies significantly.
This heightened uncertainty is partly due to conflicting weather models. The two most prominent—America’s Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF or "Euro")—are currently offering diverging outlooks. As FOX 5 NY detailed, one model shows the system bringing a major snowstorm, while another suggests a lighter event or even a near-miss if the storm tracks farther offshore. The final outcome will depend on several factors, including the availability of cold air from Canada and the exact trajectory of the coastal low.
Adding to the sense of déjà vu, New Yorkers are still digging out from January’s historic winter storm, which dumped between 11 and 15 inches of snow across the city, with even higher totals reported in Westchester and Bergen County, New Jersey. The possibility of another significant snowfall so soon has some residents on edge, especially as lingering snow piles from the previous storm are only now beginning to melt.
The lead-up to Sunday’s storm is marked by a series of weather changes. On Friday, February 21, the region will see periods of rain, mixing with sleet and snow north and west of the city, with temperatures hovering around 40°F in New York City and mid to upper 30s in the suburbs, according to PIX11. Saturday brings mostly cloudy and milder conditions, with highs near 46°F. However, by Saturday night, precipitation could return, possibly starting as rain before changing to snow as colder air moves in.
Monday, February 24, is forecast to be cloudy and windy, with lingering snow showers in the morning giving way to partial clearing by the afternoon. The high temperature is expected to be around 36°F in the city, with even colder conditions in the suburbs. Looking ahead to Tuesday, residents can expect a brief respite with sunny skies early and highs in the mid-30s, though clouds will increase later in the day.
For those keeping score at home, the odds of a true nor’easter or “bomb cyclone” slamming the city remain low but not negligible. As Curbed noted, “it’s still unclear which path it will take and just how treacherous our Monday commutes will be.” The good news? Even in the worst-case scenario, New Yorkers have weathered worse—and, as Mayor Mamdani pointed out during January’s storm, these snowy days can be a great excuse to catch up on reading or binge-watch a favorite show from the comfort of home.
Forecasters from all major outlets are urging residents to stay tuned for updates as the weekend approaches, as confidence in the storm’s track and expected snowfall should improve with new data. For now, city officials and meteorologists alike are preparing for a range of outcomes, from a light dusting to a disruptive winter event, and encouraging the public to do the same.
Whatever the storm brings, one thing is certain: New York’s winter isn’t over yet, and the city’s resilience—and resourcefulness—will once again be put to the test.