New Yorkers who were just starting to see the last of January’s snow piles melt may want to keep their shovels handy: forecasters are tracking yet another winter storm that could bring significant snowfall, strong winds, and the threat of coastal flooding to the city and surrounding areas this weekend. With memories of last month’s historic nor’easter still fresh, meteorologists are warning that a new weather system—possibly a so-called “bomb cyclone”—is bearing down on the Northeast, and its exact impact remains a moving target.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), snow could begin falling in New York City as early as 7 a.m. on Sunday, February 22, 2026. The agency is predicting 3 to 5 inches of accumulation for the city, though that number could swing higher or lower depending on the storm’s trajectory. “There’s still some model guidance that has some variance in terms of the track,” John Murray at the NWS explained to local outlets. “We’re keeping a close eye on those and seeing how the model solutions will evolve over the next day.”
But that’s just one scenario. Forecast models are currently all over the map, with some suggesting a glancing blow and others hinting at a much bigger event. FOX 5 NY meteorologist Liv Johnson put it plainly: “A coastal low is really what’s going to determine what happens. If this low moves closer, that increases our chance of seeing some snowfall. If it stays further offshore, which the models are just not agreeing on right now, then our chances decrease.”
It’s not just the NWS that’s hedging its bets. Accuweather currently expects a “gentle, but meaningful” 1 to 3 inches of new accumulation for New York City, with a 17% chance of 3 to 6 inches and a 13% chance of more than 6 inches between Sunday morning and Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, FOX Weather notes that as of Thursday, there’s a 50% chance of snow for both Sunday and Sunday night, and a 30% chance of precipitation late Saturday that could start as rain before changing to snow as colder air arrives from Canada.
The range of potential outcomes is striking. If the storm’s low-pressure center tracks closer to the coast and intensifies, New York City could see more than a few inches of snow—possibly even a foot, if the most extreme models play out. On the other hand, if the system moves offshore, the city might only get a dusting. As NBC New York reports, “The forecast for Sunday and Monday continues to be very fluid. Do expect snow this weekend—light to moderate Sunday afternoon, with the possibility of additional heavy snow Sunday night into early Monday.” Areas most likely to see over six inches would be South Jersey and Long Island, with lighter amounts to the north and farther inland.
Adding to the uncertainty are the two major forecast models that meteorologists rely on: the American GFS (Global Forecast System) and the European ECMWF model. The American model predicts that after the initial low-pressure system moves offshore, a secondary low could develop just off the Jersey Shore, producing a band of heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning for the Delmarva Peninsula, South Jersey, and possibly Long Island. This scenario could bring 6 to 12 inches to the hardest-hit areas. The European model, however, doesn’t develop this secondary low, instead keeping the main low offshore and limiting snow totals to under three inches for most areas.
Regardless of which model proves correct, officials are urging New Yorkers to prepare for potentially hazardous conditions. The city’s Emergency Management agency took to social media to advise, “Be ready to adjust travel plans Sunday and Monday morning, including caregiving schedules. Avoid unnecessary travel Sunday and Monday morning if you can to allow snow operations crews to operate. If you are traveling, use mass transit and expect travel delays.” Governor Kathy Hochul echoed these warnings, stating, “Be sure to travel smart and leave yourself ample time to get to where you’re going. Pack your car with emergency essentials and drive slowly as slick roadways can be dangerous.”
It’s not just snow that’s on the menu. The low-pressure system is expected to bring gusty northeast winds—up to 30 or 40 mph on Sunday, according to the NWS. There’s also a risk of coastal flooding during high tides on both Sunday and Monday, particularly in low-lying neighborhoods along the city’s waterfront. Temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid-30s on Sunday and early next week, after a brief respite in the 40s on Friday and Saturday.
For those keeping an eye on the school calendar, there’s even talk of a possible snow day on Monday, February 23, should conditions deteriorate. That prospect might be the only silver lining for local students, who—like everyone else—are still recovering from last month’s storm, which dumped 11 to 15 inches across parts of New York City and even higher totals in Westchester and Bergen County, New Jersey.
As the weekend approaches, meteorologists say forecast confidence should improve. Now that the storm system is onshore over the West Coast, forecasters have a much better handle on the current state of the atmosphere, which should translate to more precise modeling. By Friday afternoon, the public can expect clearer answers about the storm’s path and potential impact.
Until then, the best advice is to stay alert and flexible. As NBC New York points out, “Forecast uncertainty remains high in terms of exactly how this storm will play out.” For now, all scenarios remain possible—from a light dusting to a repeat of January’s meteorological mayhem. And as Mayor Mamdani reminded residents after the last big storm, sometimes the best thing to do is stay put, catch up on reading, and let the city’s snow crews do their work.
Whatever the outcome, New Yorkers are no strangers to winter’s unpredictability. If there’s one thing the city has learned, it’s to expect the unexpected—and to keep an eye on the forecast, just in case the snow globe gets another good shake.