As the calendar turned to December 2025, the Philippines and its neighbors in South and Southeast Asia found themselves at the mercy of an unrelenting string of tropical cyclones, floods, and landslides—an extreme weather pattern that has already left thousands dead, millions displaced, and entire communities upended. The latest threat emerged on the afternoon of December 1, when a low pressure area (LPA) formed just outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). By 5 a.m. the next day, the system hovered roughly 1,280 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, with weather specialists warning that it had a "high likelihood" of developing into a tropical depression within 24 to 48 hours.
Forecast models, as reported by Pagasa weather specialist Chenel Dominguez, suggest the system could make landfall in Eastern Visayas or Caraga, but the track remains uncertain. For now, the LPA isn’t directly affecting weather in the country, though localised rains and thunderstorms are hitting southern Mindanao due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while northern Luzon is seeing its share of showers from the northeast monsoon, or amihan. However, Pagasa cautioned that by Friday, December 5, rains could begin to impact the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao—potentially persisting through the weekend as the system moves across the Visayas after its initial landfall.
Should the system intensify and enter the PAR as a tropical cyclone, it will be named "Wilma." This would not be unusual for December, with Pagasa warning that one to two tropical cyclones may still develop or enter the PAR before year’s end. Weather specialist Leanne Loreto pointed out that cyclones forming this late in the year tend to be "landfalling," meaning they pass directly over land and often bring strong winds and heavy rains to the Visayas, southern Luzon, and northern and eastern Mindanao.
But the Philippines is hardly alone in facing nature’s wrath this season. According to The New York Times, three cyclones struck South and Southeast Asia simultaneously this week. The result? At least 1,200 people dead, hundreds more missing, and millions displaced from their homes. The scale of devastation is staggering: since the start of 2025, at least 16 cyclones and dozens of depressions have roared through the Pacific and Indian oceans, battering vulnerable coastlines and low-lying communities.
In Sri Lanka, Cyclone Ditwah hit with such ferocity that the president described it as the “largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history,” affecting every part of the country and surpassing even the 2004 tsunami in scope. Flooding and landslides have impacted more than a million people, destroyed over 15,000 homes, and pushed the death toll to at least 355 as of December 1. Hundreds remain missing, and the country’s fragile recovery from its 2022 economic crash is now further threatened.
Indonesia, meanwhile, has seen Cyclone Senyar bring misery to 1.5 million people, with about 570,000 displaced and nearly 300,000 evacuated from their homes by the end of November. The official death toll there has reached 604, with another 464 still unaccounted for. The flooding has been so severe that, as reported by The New York Times, hundreds have perished, and the country is once again grappling with the challenges of disaster relief amid persistent economic and social pressures. In September, thousands took to the streets to protest the yawning wealth gap and government response to disasters; youth unemployment has soared above 16%, and Jakarta, the capital, continues to sink into the Java Sea.
Elsewhere, Vietnam has endured a punishing year with 14 typhoons already, and a 15th forming off the south central coast. More than 90 people died in November from flooding and landslides. Thailand has also been battered, with at least 160 deaths and over 2 million displaced by flooding as of late November. The country’s military has deployed troops, helicopters, and boats to rescue people stranded by rising waters in its southern provinces.
The Philippines itself was hit by two typhoons in early November, with Super Typhoon Fung-wong striking on November 9, less than a week after another storm left over 200 dead. These back-to-back disasters have tested the resilience of communities and the effectiveness of emergency responses. In Manila, thousands protested in September, accusing the government of misappropriating billions of dollars earmarked for flood relief. According to Greenpeace, about 1 trillion Philippine pesos (roughly $17.6 billion) meant to address chronic and deadly flooding had been embezzled, fueling public anger and calls for accountability.
What’s behind this unprecedented monsoon season? Experts point to a combination of natural and human-driven factors. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, told The New York Times, “It is the rainfall and the cascading impacts—landslides and flash floods—that stand out this year, not necessarily the number of storms.” This year’s monsoon season has been unusually intense, partly due to La Niña, a weather phenomenon where strong winds push warm water across the Pacific toward East Asia, creating storm-friendly conditions. While monsoons are an annual event, cyclones are typically rare near the equator. Yet, Typhoon Senyar formed just five degrees above the equator in the strait between Indonesia and Malaysia, a rare and troubling development.
Climate change is also playing a major role. For over a century, greenhouse gases have trapped heat in the planet’s atmosphere, raising global temperatures and heating the oceans. Warmer water helps tropical cyclones form and intensify more rapidly. In the Bay of Bengal, the proportion of storms that become extreme has increased over the past 50 years. Meanwhile, the weakening of vertical wind shear—winds that can disrupt developing storms—has allowed stronger cyclones to persist in some regions. A 2024 study suggested that warming of the Tibetan Plateau may have reduced wind shear over the Pacific, while similar trends in the Arabian Sea have been observed since the 1990s.
As global temperatures rise, so does the air’s capacity to hold moisture, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall. This makes the monsoon season more variable, intense, and unpredictable. In Southeast Asia, late-season typhoons often coincide with monsoon rains in November and December, amplifying the risks of flooding and landslides.
Governments across the region have struggled to keep up. Disaster response plans are uneven, and many countries are already facing complex economic and political challenges. In Vietnam, criticism has mounted over the government’s slow response and lack of preparedness. The national statistics office reported more than $2 billion in damage from natural disasters between January and October alone. In Thailand and Indonesia, military and emergency services have been stretched thin, and public frustration is rising over the pace and effectiveness of relief efforts.
For the Philippines, the immediate concern is the looming threat of "Wilma"—the next storm that could bring more destruction to a nation already reeling from a relentless season. As the region braces for what comes next, the stories unfolding across Asia are a sobering reminder: the era of extreme weather is here, and its toll is measured not just in numbers, but in lives upended and communities forever changed.