As the war in Gaza grinds into its second year, international pressure is mounting for Israel and Hamas to move forward with the next phase of a United States-led peace blueprint. Yet, despite a tenuous ceasefire and a flurry of diplomatic activity, major disagreements and uncertainties continue to dog the plan, leaving the future of Gaza—and its people—hanging in the balance.
On December 7, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Jerusalem and declared that the second phase of the US plan to end the Gaza conflict was “very close.” However, he quickly cautioned that several key issues remain unresolved, not least the question of whether a multinational security force will be deployed to the embattled enclave. “What will be the timeline? What are the forces that are coming in? Will we have international forces? If not, what are the alternatives? These are all topics that are being discussed,” Netanyahu remarked, underscoring the complexity of the situation, as reported by Reuters.
The US-drafted plan, expected to be formally announced by President Donald Trump before Christmas, lays out a general roadmap for Gaza’s future. It calls for the establishment of an international stabilisation force, the formation of a technocratic Palestinian government, and the creation of an executive board—featuring figures like Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff—to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction. The executive board would report to a so-called “board of peace,” chaired by Trump and including influential Arab and European leaders such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to The Telegraph.
Despite these ambitious plans, the details remain frustratingly vague. As Axios noted, no concrete timeline or command structure for the stabilisation force has been set. While countries like Indonesia and Azerbaijan have expressed willingness to contribute troops, Israel has flatly rejected Turkey’s involvement, accusing Ankara of supporting Hamas. The multinational coordination centre already established in Israel is operational, but efforts to advance the broader plan have stalled.
The first phase of the US peace plan, which began on October 10, 2025, brought about a temporary halt in fighting, the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a limited Israeli pullback. Yet, the ceasefire has proven fragile at best. Both sides accuse each other of violations, and Israel has continued air strikes throughout the truce, killing more than 370 Palestinians since the ceasefire began, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Over the course of more than two years of Israeli bombardment, more than 70,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, the ministry reports. Meanwhile, Hamas has reestablished itself in the parts of Gaza not under Israeli control.
Israel currently retains control over 53 percent of Gaza, with the Israeli military recently designating a so-called “yellow line” as a new border. “We have operational control over extensive parts of the Gaza Strip, and we will remain on those defence lines,” said Israeli military chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir. This has left many Palestinians in limbo, with limited freedom of movement and stability still a distant hope.
The second phase, which Netanyahu described as “more difficult,” will only begin once Hamas returns the remains of Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old Israeli police officer killed during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel. Netanyahu made clear that the focus of this phase would be the “disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarisation of Gaza.” He also alluded to a third phase: “deradicalizing” Gaza, drawing parallels to postwar Germany and Japan. “It was done in Germany, it was done in Japan, it’s done in the Gulf states, can be done in Gaza too,” Netanyahu said, as reported by CBS News.
For Hamas, however, the US blueprint is far from acceptable in its current form. Senior Hamas official Basem Naim stated on December 7 that the draft plan “requires a lot of clarifications.” While Hamas is willing to discuss “freezing or storing” weapons during the truce, Naim insisted the group would not accept an international stabilisation force taking charge of disarmament. Instead, he said, Hamas would welcome a United Nations force “to be near the borders, supervising the ceasefire agreement, reporting about violations, preventing any kind of escalations,” but stressed that such a force should have “no mandates” on Palestinian territory. Hamas, he added, retains its “right to resist,” and any move to lay down arms could only happen as part of a broader process leading to a Palestinian state, possibly with a long-term truce lasting five to ten years.
The governance model proposed by Kushner and Blair envisions 12 to 15 Palestinian technocrats with no ties to Hamas or Fatah running the day-to-day administration of Gaza under the supervision of the executive board. But as one Western official told Axios, “The big question is: will Hamas agree to disarm and allow the new government to take power?” So far, the answer appears to be a resounding no.
Meanwhile, Kushner is promoting the concept of “alternative safe communities”—essentially small, temporary villages within Gaza’s IDF-controlled eastern and southern “green zone”—to encourage civilians to relocate away from Hamas-controlled areas. But this idea, too, faces significant hurdles, not least the deep mistrust among Gaza’s population and the lack of clarity on how to dislodge Hamas from its strongholds.
International actors are watching closely. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that phase two “must come now,” and Germany is prepared to help rebuild Gaza, but Berlin is waiting for clarity from Washington and Netanyahu’s upcoming meeting with Trump before committing resources. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, speaking at the Doha Forum on December 6, warned that the truce is at a “critical moment” and could unravel without swift movement toward a permanent deal. “A ceasefire cannot be completed unless there is a full withdrawal of Israeli forces, there is stability back in Gaza, people can go in and out, which is not the case today,” he said.
Behind the scenes, Israeli and Qatari officials have met with US counterparts to rebuild relations following Israel’s air strike on Doha in September. Arab and Western officials told The Associated Press that an international body to oversee the ceasefire—expected to be led by Trump—could be appointed by the end of the year. In the long term, the US plan leaves open the possibility of Palestinian independence, though Netanyahu remains firmly opposed, arguing that a Palestinian state would only reward Hamas.
Adding another layer of complexity, Netanyahu confirmed that the “question of political annexation” of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion between Israel and the US, even as Trump has reportedly promised Muslim leaders that Israel would not annex the territory.
With so many moving parts, shifting alliances, and unresolved questions, the road ahead for Gaza remains perilous. The coming weeks will prove critical as world leaders, diplomats, and the people of Gaza await answers—and hope for a peace that has eluded the region for far too long.
