The stage is set for a dramatic postseason showdown as the Navy Midshipmen and Cincinnati Bearcats prepare to clash in the 2026 Liberty Bowl, scheduled for Friday, January 2, at 4:30 p.m. ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. With ESPN broadcasting the action nationwide, fans are eager to see whether Navy can cap a historic season or if Cincinnati will defy the odds and close out their campaign with a statement win.
This year’s Liberty Bowl features two programs with vastly different trajectories. Navy, ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll, enters with a 10-2 record and a chance to secure only its third 11-win season in program history—a feat previously accomplished in 2015 and 2019. Cincinnati, meanwhile, comes in at 7-5, having stumbled through the latter part of the season after a promising start. The Bearcats, now members of the Big 12, are seeking their first bowl victory since 2019 and a much-needed morale boost after a tough finish.
The all-time series between these two teams is knotted at 3-3, with Cincinnati having won the last three meetings, including a 20-10 victory in 2022. But with both squads bringing new faces and plenty of storylines into this year’s contest, the outcome is anything but certain.
For Navy, the story of the season has been their relentless ground attack. The Midshipmen boast the nation’s top rushing offense, churning out a staggering 289 yards per game. Senior quarterback Blake Horvath has been the engine of this machine, ranking 18th nationally in rushing yards among quarterbacks and exceeding the 100-yard mark in seven of his last nine starts. Horvath’s dual-threat ability has kept defenses guessing all year, and he’s just 76 yards away from leading all FBS quarterbacks in rushing—a remarkable achievement for his final collegiate game.
Running back Alex Tecza, another senior, has been a key contributor as well. Tecza needs 178 yards in the Liberty Bowl to reach the 1,000-yard milestone for the first time in his career. He’s coming off a string of impressive performances, including 100-plus yard games against South Florida and Memphis, and he famously caught the winning two-point conversion to defeat Temple. Navy’s passing game, while not its primary weapon, has been more potent than ever thanks to receiver Eli Heidenreich. Averaging 19.1 yards per catch, Heidenreich has already set a Navy single-season record with 877 receiving yards and will look to extend that mark in his final outing.
Defensively, Navy has been a bit of a mixed bag—strong against the run but vulnerable through the air, allowing 241 passing yards per contest. Yet, the Midshipmen can count on the disruptive presence of defensive tackle Landon Robinson, recently named an AP First Team All-American—the first Navy player to earn that distinction since 1975. Robinson has racked up 6.5 sacks and 58 tackles, anchoring a unit that also features standout linebackers MarcAnthony Parker and Luke Pirris, who have combined for 168 tackles and 13.5 tackles for loss. Navy’s defense may bend, but with playmakers like these, it rarely breaks when it matters most.
On the other sideline, Cincinnati’s season has been a tale of two halves. After racing out to a 7-1 start and reaching as high as No. 16 in the national rankings, the Bearcats faltered, closing the regular season with four consecutive losses. The late-season slide has been compounded by roster upheaval: six starters, including quarterback Brendan Sorsby and four defensive backs, have entered the transfer portal as of January 2. Defensive backs coach Eddie Hicks has also departed for Arkansas, leaving head coach Scott Satterfield scrambling to plug the gaps.
Despite the adversity, Cincinnati’s offensive line remains a bright spot. The unit is tied with Army for the fewest sacks allowed in the nation—just seven on the year—and is anchored by AP All-American left guard Evan Tengesdahl. That protection will be crucial for Brady Lichtenberg, who is set to make his first collegiate start after five years on campus. Lichtenberg has attempted just 45 passes in his career, but with Sorsby gone, the spotlight is his. He’ll be handing off to a pair of relative newcomers in the backfield: redshirt sophomore Manny Covey and true freshman Zion Johnson, both of whom have impressed with their efficiency, averaging over 5.8 yards per carry.
Cincinnati’s offense also features the explosive Cyrus Allen, whose 12 touchdown receptions lead all Big 12 receivers. However, the Bearcats will be without star defensive tackle Dontay Corleone, who has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Outside linebacker Jake Golday, a draft prospect himself, is expected to play after posting 105 tackles and 3.5 sacks this year. The Bearcats’ defense, however, has struggled overall, ranking 100th in yards allowed per game and managing just two interceptions all season—a glaring weakness against Navy’s multifaceted attack.
Betting markets reflect the uncertainty and intrigue surrounding this matchup. At most sportsbooks, Navy is favored by 7 to 7.5 points, with the over/under set between 54.5 and 55.5 points. Moneyline odds have Navy at -275 to -300 and Cincinnati as a +240 underdog. Expert predictions are mixed: some models give Navy a 60% chance to win, projecting a close score like 28-24, while others anticipate a more decisive Navy victory, such as 35-13 or 35-24. Analysts point to Navy’s consistency and Cincinnati’s personnel losses as key factors, but also caution that Cincinnati’s offensive line and big-play threats could keep things interesting.
“UC will be without start QB Brendan Sorsby, who is in the transfer portal and looking to leverage his 2,800-yard, 27-TD season. QBs Brady Lichtenberg and Samaj Jones figure to combine as a pale comparison. But in the aggregate, the Bearcats will also be without a slew of key defensive players. Navy will be more in standard-operating-procedure mode,” noted one betting preview from USA TODAY Sports. Another simulation-based prediction from Dimers.com states, “Our famous predictive model currently gives Navy a 60% chance of defeating Cincinnati. Our predicted final score has Navy winning 28-24.”
History is on Navy’s side when it comes to bowl games. Service academies have excelled in recent postseason play, with Navy winning six of its last seven bowl appearances. The Midshipmen are already riding high after a dramatic 17-16 win over Army on December 13 and a three-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Cincinnati, by contrast, is looking to snap a four-game losing skid and overcome significant roster turnover.
As kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on whether Navy’s ground game can impose its will yet again, or if Cincinnati’s patchwork lineup can rally for a season-defining upset. With historic milestones, individual records, and program pride all on the line, the 2026 Liberty Bowl promises high drama and no shortage of talking points. One thing’s for sure: fans tuning in from Memphis and across the country are in for a bowl game to remember.
