In the past several weeks, tensions between NATO and Russia have escalated to levels not seen since the early days of the Ukraine conflict, as a series of airspace violations by Russian military aircraft and drones have prompted stern warnings, emergency meetings, and the mobilization of allied forces across Europe. The latest incidents, involving unauthorized incursions into the airspace of Estonia and Poland, have forced the alliance to confront a difficult question: just how far is NATO willing to go to defend its skies?
The most recent episode occurred on September 19, 2025, when three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland without permission, remaining for about 12 minutes. According to maps and radar records released by Estonia, the aircraft were combat-ready and armed with missiles. NATO fighter jets, including Italian F-35s participating in the alliance's enhanced Baltic air policing mission, swiftly intercepted the Russian planes. Estonia responded by initiating formal consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, a mechanism that allows any member to request a meeting if its security is threatened. As reported by CNN, Estonia also called for an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting to address the breach.
This was not an isolated event. On September 10, 2025, Poland intercepted and destroyed nearly 20 Russian drones that had violated its airspace. The operation involved Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s, and marked the first direct encounter between NATO and Moscow since the Ukraine war began. The incident sent shockwaves through European capitals, raising urgent questions about NATO’s preparedness to counter growing Russian aggression. Royal Air Force Typhoon jets, part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission, flew their first mission over Poland on September 19 as part of an enhanced readiness posture.
In the wake of these provocations, NATO issued a strongly worded statement on September 23, 2025, declaring, "Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions." The alliance reaffirmed its commitment to Article 5 of its founding treaty, which states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all. The message was clear: further violations would not be tolerated.
However, the question of exactly how NATO would respond to future incursions remains a matter of heated debate. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters, “Decisions to shoot down suspect aircraft depend on available intelligence regarding the threat posed by the aircraft, including questions we have to answer like intent, armaments and potential risk to allies, forces, civilians or infrastructure.” Rutte added that the alliance would respond “in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing.”
Some leaders have taken a more uncompromising stance. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated unequivocally on September 22, "Poland would shoot down flying objects violating its territory without discussion." Former U.S. President Donald Trump, when asked if he believed NATO countries should shoot down such aircraft, replied, "Yes, I do," though he noted that direct U.S. involvement would depend on the circumstances.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, speaking at the United Nations in New York, warned that Moscow's “reckless actions risk a direct armed confrontation” between Russia and NATO. She declared, “We are vigilant. We are resolute. And if we need to confront planes that are operating in NATO airspace without permission, then we will do so.”
During the emergency Security Council meeting, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna highlighted the seriousness of the situation, urging international unity to prevent further escalation. “Our alliance is defensive, but don’t mistake it for weakness… if we have to confront aircraft operating in NATO airspace without permission, we will do so,” Tsahkna said, echoing the alliance’s determination to uphold international norms.
Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski addressed the Russian delegation directly, voicing concerns about international law and the risks of imperial ambitions. “We know you don’t care about international law, and you cannot live peacefully with your neighbors,” Sikorski said. He issued a stern warning: “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without authorization – intentionally or ‘by mistake’ – and is shot down, and debris falls on NATO territory, do not come here with complaints. You have been warned. Thank you.”
The United States, for its part, reaffirmed its commitment to collective defense. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Waltz told the Security Council, “The U.S. and its allies will defend every inch of NATO’s airspace.” This sentiment was echoed by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who emphasized the need for credible security guarantees for Ukraine after the peace process to deter further Russian aggression, highlighting the strong commitments from both European allies and the U.S.
Yet, Russia has flatly denied any wrongdoing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the accusations of violating Estonian airspace as “an escalation of tension.” Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, insisted that the aircraft remained “in international airspace,” accusing Western representatives of “spreading outright lies.”
Meanwhile, the region has seen increased military activity and vigilance. Sweden and Germany dispatched reconnaissance and monitoring aircraft to identify a Russian Il-20, which was operating in international airspace without a flight plan or radio communications around the same period. A separate drone incident at Copenhagen Airport shut down airspace over Scandinavia’s largest airport for hours, though officials said it was too early to link the event directly to Russia.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the recent airspace violations as “evidence of deliberate provocation,” adding, “Russia is testing Europe’s borders and undermining security.” She warned that such actions are part of an emerging pattern of Russian irresponsibility, with the potential to lead to dangerous miscalculations and put lives at risk.
As the NATO Council convened for urgent consultations, the alliance’s message remained resolute but measured. While the prospect of a direct military confrontation with Russia looms uncomfortably close, NATO leaders have made it clear that the alliance will not be cowed by intimidation. The coming weeks may test not only the alliance’s resolve, but its unity and judgment as well.
With European skies under constant watch and political leaders on high alert, the world is left to wonder: will the next incursion push NATO to act more decisively, or can diplomacy and deterrence hold the line?