Tensions are running high along NATO’s eastern flank as a series of alleged Russian airspace violations have prompted stern warnings from European capitals, a show of military force by the alliance, and a surge in public support for robust countermeasures. The last several weeks have seen a rapid escalation in rhetoric and military posturing, with both sides trading accusations and warnings that have left observers uneasy about the risk of a dangerous miscalculation.
The most recent flashpoints began earlier in September 2025, when Poland reported that multiple Russian drones had entered its territory. Estonia followed with its own claim last Friday, September 26, alleging that Russian military aircraft had breached its airspace and immediately requested urgent consultations with fellow NATO member states. These incidents were not isolated. According to The Barents Observer, NATO officials noted that similar airspace violations had taken place in Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Romania in recent months, painting a picture of what the alliance describes as “a wider pattern of increasingly irresponsible Russian behaviour.”
The Russian Defense Ministry was quick to deny any wrongdoing, stating that three MiG-31 fighter jets had merely conducted a routine flight from Karelia Region, east of Finland, to Kaliningrad Region, a Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania. The ministry insisted that the aircraft “strictly flew over neutral waters of the Baltic Sea.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed this line on Friday, dismissing the allegations as “groundless” and asserting that “no credible evidence has been produced” to back up the claims. When asked about Western threats to shoot down Russian warplanes, Peskov didn’t mince words, calling such statements “very reckless and irresponsible.”
But Western officials aren’t backing down. A Bloomberg report, widely cited across European media, revealed that diplomats from the UK, France, and Germany held a closed-door meeting with Russian officials in Moscow earlier this week. According to anonymous officials cited in the report, the Western diplomats warned that NATO was prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft if further airspace violations occurred. The European side reportedly concluded that the recent incursion over Estonia was not accidental, but a “deliberate tactic” by Moscow. Russian officials, for their part, argued that any such incursions were a response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and that NATO’s support for Kyiv had put Europe and Russia on a collision course.
The warnings from European capitals have not gone unnoticed in Moscow. Russian diplomatic sources told NHK that the Kremlin is “testing the NATO alliance” and warned that the risk of an “accidental incident” is on the rise. Peskov, in his public remarks, cautioned that NATO’s threats could prompt a “significant escalation of tension.”
On the ground—or rather, at sea and in the air—NATO has responded with a show of force. On Wednesday, September 24, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, launched F/A-18 fighter jets from the North Sea to the southern coast of Finland in a dramatic demonstration of the alliance’s reach and readiness. “We can fly the F-18s 1,000 miles (1,600 km), and even longer with aerial refuelling. No problem to reach Finland,” said Capt. David J. Dartez, commander of Air Wing Eight attached to the carrier, in an interview with The Barents Observer. The mission was part of Neptune Strike, a NATO exercise involving sailors, soldiers, aviators, and marines from 13 nations, designed to “demonstrate NATO’s ability to integrate high-end maritime strike capabilities, strengthen deterrence, and ensure freedom of navigation across critical waterways.”
Russian aircraft have reportedly approached the USS Gerald R. Ford during its operations near Norway, prompting immediate interception by Norwegian F-35s and a seamless handoff to American F-18s. “We had custody of them the entire time. They did not get within any range without us on the wing,” Capt. Dartez told The Barents Observer. The carrier group’s commanding officer, Capt. David W. Skarosi, praised the professionalism of the multinational crews, noting the challenging conditions and the importance of learning from Nordic allies. “Norway and Finland are the experts,” Skarosi said. “We learned from them every single day, leveraging their experience and understanding how to operate up there seamlessly is vital to our execution and the endurance of our alliance.”
Meanwhile, the political temperature continues to rise. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has publicly stated that he would not rule out shooting down Russian planes in the event of further violations, emphasizing that such decisions would be made “strictly on a case-by-case basis.” Rutte also voiced support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance that NATO should down Russian aircraft violating alliance airspace. According to European Pravda, this tough line has found widespread support among the public in frontline states. A survey conducted by SW Research on September 23 and 24 found that 67% of Poles support shooting down Russian fighter jets that violate NATO airspace, with only 8.7% opposed and 24.2% undecided. Support was stronger among men (73.4%) than women (61.3%), and increased with age—from 54.7% among those under 24 to 70.3% among those over 50.
Other recent developments have added to the sense of unease in the region. Drone sightings have disrupted airports and military installations in Denmark over several days, with authorities attributing the incidents to a “professional actor.” The timing of NATO’s Neptune Strike exercise, though long planned, has been seen as especially opportune given the recent pattern of Russian provocations. Norwegian officials have privately acknowledged that Russian planes violated the Varanger region’s airspace, which borders the Kola Peninsula—home to a significant portion of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal—on at least three occasions earlier this year.
NATO invoked Article 4, which calls for consultations among alliance members when a member feels threatened, twice in September: first after Russian drones entered Polish airspace, and again after three armed Russian MiG-31 jets reportedly violated Estonian airspace for more than ten minutes. In a statement, the North Atlantic Council placed the blame squarely on Moscow: “Russia bears full responsibility for these actions, which are escalatory, risk miscalculation and endanger lives. They must stop.” The alliance warned that its response would remain “robust” and that “Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.”
Amid the mounting tensions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used his appearance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York to claim that NATO and the EU had “declared a real war” on Russia, a statement widely disputed by Western officials and media. As The Barents Observer pointed out, Lavrov’s assertion is “not true,” and he is “infamous for lying about the war in Ukraine.”
With both sides digging in and public sentiment hardening—at least in Poland and other frontline states—the risk of escalation remains very real. As NATO and Russia test each other’s resolve, the next few months could prove critical in determining whether deterrence holds or whether the region edges closer to open conflict.