NATO’s military readiness is under the microscope this winter as top commanders and security officials across Europe sound the alarm: the alliance, despite its superior capabilities, is not currently equipped to withstand a long, drawn-out war. The warnings come as Russia ramps up hybrid attacks and military posturing, and as political winds in Washington threaten to shift the United States’ focus away from European security concerns.
Vice Admiral Mike Utley, of the UK’s Royal Navy and head of NATO’s Allied Maritime Command, delivered a blunt assessment in interviews and public statements on December 19, 2025. According to Bloomberg, Utley said, “Have we got the resilience that we would wish to have? I think the commentary over the last 10 months has shown that, no, we haven’t. But nations have very much recognized that and are prepared to invest in those capability sets to grow our resilience.”
Utley’s message is echoed by other high-ranking European security officials and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Rutte warned just last week that “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years,” adding that the alliance “must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.” This call to action is not only about traditional military threats; Utley and others point to the increasing complexity of the modern battlefield, where cyberattacks and information warfare are as potent as tanks and missiles.
The sense of urgency is palpable. On December 15, the newly appointed heads of Britain’s intelligence services and armed forces issued their own warnings. MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli stated that Europe is “operating in a space between peace and war.” Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton was even more direct, urging that more Britons should be prepared to fight for their country. These statements, widely reported by Reuters and Bloomberg, reflect a growing consensus that the peace many Europeans have taken for granted is more fragile than it appears.
Complicating matters further is the evolving posture of the United States. President Donald Trump’s push to accelerate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has raised concerns in European capitals that Washington might shift its strategic focus elsewhere. However, as Bloomberg and RBC Ukraine report, critical provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act—backed by Congress—are expected to make it difficult for the US to withdraw troops and key weapons systems from Europe, at least in the near term.
Despite these legislative safeguards, the anxiety remains. Western officials assess that even if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue military operations and hybrid attacks elsewhere. Putin himself has dismissed reports of plans to attack NATO as “nonsense,” but European intelligence agencies aren’t taking any chances. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius cited German intelligence indicating that the Kremlin has discussed possible plans to target NATO, while the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has stepped up its information and psychological campaigns—potentially as part of preparations for a broader confrontation.
Some NATO members aren’t waiting for consensus to act. Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland have announced plans to spend more than 5% of their GDP on defense next year, a significant increase over previous years. Other members are also boosting their military budgets, but overall, the pace of increased defense spending across the alliance remains sluggish. According to Bloomberg and RBC Ukraine, all NATO members except Spain agreed in 2025 to spend at least 3.5% of their economic output on core defense programs and 1.5% on related areas by 2035. Yet, actual allocation of these funds has been slow, with the United Kingdom delaying the publication of its own defense investment plan until 2026.
Vice Admiral Utley, ever the realist, acknowledged the challenge of balancing defense needs with other national priorities. “Money is difficult and there are lots of competing priorities for all our allies on how they spend their taxpayers’ money. I’m not going to pretend that defense should have every penny to spend on every single capability that’s available. It’s about prioritization,” he told Bloomberg. He remains optimistic, however, that NATO’s investments will eventually match the range of challenges it faces: “Do I think it’s going in the right direction? Absolutely. Yes, because it is.”
Meanwhile, the threat landscape continues to evolve. Russian military activity along NATO’s frontiers is on the rise, with ships entering British waters and new submarines—capable of carrying Poseidon torpedo drones—being unveiled. Putin claims these nuclear-powered weapons have evaded interception in recent tests, a claim that has not gone unnoticed by NATO’s maritime strategists.
In response, NATO launched its “Baltic Sentry” operation earlier in 2025, aiming to bolster its presence and protect critical undersea infrastructure. This operation integrates frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and naval drones, reflecting a new era of technological and operational complexity. The alliance’s new maritime strategy, published this year, sets out a vision to increase resilience and industrial cooperation, with an eye toward rapidly producing munitions stockpiles should the need arise.
The 2025 strategy marks a departure from the previous version, which was focused primarily on countering terrorism. Now, Russia and terrorism are listed as NATO’s two biggest threats, with China identified as a “systemic challenge” due to its expanding naval capabilities and deepening partnership with Moscow. The strategy warns that China’s role as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to NATO’s security calculus.
Hybrid warfare—a blend of military, cyber, and disinformation tactics—remains a persistent concern. Utley noted that today’s battlespace is “genuinely a very different battle space,” citing the interdependence of technology, supply chains, and intellectual property. Russian cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea only complicates matters further, making it clear that the alliance faces a multidimensional challenge that won’t simply fade away.
For now, NATO’s leaders are walking a tightrope: investing in resilience, adapting to new threats, and reassuring their populations—all while navigating budgetary constraints and political uncertainty. As Vice Admiral Utley put it, “This challenge is going to get more complicated, more persistent and isn’t going to go away.” The coming years will test whether the alliance can turn its commitments into lasting security for Europe and beyond.
