In the waning days of September 2025, NATO finds itself in the throes of a new and dangerous test. Across its eastern flank, a surge of airspace violations by Russian aircraft—including both drones and fighter jets—has forced the alliance to confront a critical dilemma: how to deter Moscow’s provocations without stumbling into a wider conflict.
The past several weeks have seen a sharp escalation in such incidents. According to Associated Press, the number of serious airspace breaches has spiked, with Russian warplanes and drones repeatedly intruding into NATO territory. The violations have not been limited to one area; they have stretched from Poland and Romania to Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, and Denmark. Notably, on September 10, Poland shot down more than a dozen drones, some of which appeared to be heading toward the U.S. F-35 base at Lask, as reported by Straight Arrow News.
Romania, too, has felt the pressure. Defense Minister Ionuț Moșteanu remarked at the Warsaw Security Forum, "We just found another drone, another Russian drone that fell down on our territory in the Danube Delta. And this is a common thing for the last three and a half years." Norway has also reported repeated airspace violations in the far north, with Defense Minister Tore Sandvik labeling Russia’s behavior as "reckless."
The incursions are not limited to drones. Earlier in September, Russian MiG-31 fighters briefly entered Estonian airspace, remaining there for about 12 minutes before being intercepted by NATO jets. This incident, which BFBS Forces News described as a deeper incursion than first believed, sparked alarm in Tallinn and throughout the alliance. Estonia responded by invoking urgent consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, a mechanism for alliance members to discuss threats to their security. Poland also invoked Article 4 following a major Russian attack on Ukraine and the subsequent activation of its own air defenses.
Perhaps most troubling are the suspected Russian provocations in Denmark and Norway. Drones have been spotted near Copenhagen Airport and other key sites, leading to speculation—reported by Geopoliticalmonitor.com—that they may have been launched from Russian-flagged vessels operating in the Baltic Sea. In response, France, Germany, and Sweden have moved to strengthen Denmark’s air defenses ahead of two major summits in Copenhagen.
NATO’s response has been swift, but not without internal debate. Operation Eastern Sentry was launched, deploying dozens of European jets, including RAF Typhoons, to defend Poland’s border with Russia. The United Kingdom has also announced "Project Octopus," a program to mass-produce drones for both NATO and Ukraine, while Germany has sent an air defense frigate and anti-drone units to protect high-profile meetings. Meanwhile, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are collaborating with Brussels to build a "drone wall"—a layered defense system featuring radar, acoustic sensors, anti-drone weapons, and advanced air defenses along their borders.
Yet, as NATO ramps up its surveillance and defensive measures, a rift is emerging over how forcefully the alliance should respond. Poland’s stance is unequivocal. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, speaking to Russia’s U.N. delegation, warned, "If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it. You have been warned." This blunt message reflects a growing sentiment among frontline states—Poland, the Baltic countries, and others with a history of Russian occupation—that only a forceful, united response will deter further aggression.
Others within the alliance urge caution. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized the need to "act decisively and quickly," but also to "always assess the threat levels" and ensure that any response is proportionate. "Opening fire is really, really, really, really the last resort," retired French Navy Capt. Pierre-Henri Chuet told Associated Press, highlighting the risks of miscalculation and escalation. The alliance is acutely aware of the financial burden of countering relatively cheap drones with expensive military hardware, as well as the potential for a single incident to spiral out of control. The 2015 downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey—after a mere 12-second airspace violation—nearly brought the two countries to open conflict and serves as a cautionary tale.
Despite these risks, momentum is building for a tougher posture. Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs has called for NATO to move beyond its current "air policing" mission to a true "air defense" strategy, which would permit more aggressive actions, including shooting down intruding aircraft. Italian Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, confirmed that such a shift is "an option," although he cautioned that it is still under investigation.
U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed the idea of shooting down intruding Russian aircraft, stating that European countries should have the right to defend their airspace with lethal force. However, as noted by Associated Press, Trump’s administration has so far shown reticence in sending additional military equipment to counter the violations, instead reiterating that the U.S. "would continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them." This approach has left some European leaders uneasy about the depth of American backing at a time when unity is crucial.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been outspoken in his criticism of what he sees as NATO’s hesitancy. He accused Moscow of using a so-called "shadow fleet" of aging oil tankers to launch and control drones from the Baltic Sea, and urged further sanctions on these vessels. Zelenskyy’s message to the alliance was blunt: “This is further evidence that the Baltic Sea and other seas should be closed to Russian tankers, at least for the shadow fleet.” He also urged NATO to "shoot down everything" the next time Moscow provokes, echoing calls from Polish President Donald Tusk and Czech President Petr Pavel for a more robust defense.
For many in Eastern Europe, the present moment is a test not just of NATO’s military capacity, but of its political will and unity. As Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski put it at the UN, Russia must be defeated "not just on the battlefield in Ukraine, but psychologically." The alliance’s ability to deter further violations—without being drawn into a direct conflict—will depend on its collective resolve and its willingness to adapt to a new era of hybrid warfare.
As NATO weighs its next steps, the stakes could hardly be higher. With Russian provocations likely to continue, the alliance faces a defining choice: manage a series of crises as they arise, or set a clear course for its future security. The coming weeks will reveal whether NATO can meet this challenge on its own terms—rather than on the Kremlin’s.