In the heart of southern Africa, Malawi’s political landscape is once again on the brink of dramatic change. On September 16, 2025, Malawians went to the polls in a high-stakes general election that has captivated the nation and drawn the attention of international observers. Now, just over a week later, all eyes are on former President Peter Mutharika, who appears poised for a remarkable political comeback, while incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera faces a near-insurmountable deficit as the final ballots are tallied.
As of September 23, 2025, the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has confirmed that physical records from all 36 councils have arrived at the National Tally Centre in Lilongwe. According to partial results released by the MEC, Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has secured 2,138,746 votes—an impressive 66.7% of the 3.2 million valid ballots counted so far. With 7.2 million registered voters nationwide, the threshold to win outright is about 2.34 million votes, or 50% plus one. That leaves Mutharika just 205,841 votes shy of victory with results from 12 councils still pending.
President Chakwera, representing the Malawi Congress Party, trails with just over 20% of the votes counted, a margin that seems almost impossible to overcome. To snatch victory, Chakwera would need to secure about 1.6 million of the remaining votes—a scenario that, given current voting patterns, defies belief. As reported by the Associated Press, Mutharika’s lead is built on overwhelming support in his Southern Region stronghold, where the numbers are nothing short of staggering. In Thyolo district, for instance, Mutharika racked up 200,131 votes against Chakwera’s mere 2,943, and in Machinga district, he won 177,387 votes to Chakwera’s 4,541.
Chakwera, who rode a wave of optimism to victory in the 2020 rerun after the annulment of the 2019 election, has managed to hold ground in Central Region districts such as Dowa, where he polled 216,091 votes. However, these margins pale in comparison to Mutharika’s southern landslide. The current election has been widely interpreted as a referendum on Chakwera’s economic stewardship. Malawi has endured inflation rates above 20%—and in some reports, even exceeding 27%—for three consecutive years, alongside chronic fuel and food shortages. The devastation wrought by Cyclone Freddy in 2023 only deepened the economic malaise, making the cost-of-living crisis a defining issue at the ballot box.
Political analyst Henry Chingaipe told SABC News, “For the time being, it’s still going to be ethnicity, still going to be region,” pointing to the enduring influence of regional and ethnic loyalties in Malawian politics. While economic frustration has certainly played a role, the data suggests that old patterns of voting by region remain as decisive as ever.
The MEC has been at pains to emphasize transparency and accuracy in this tense environment. Chairperson Annabel Mtalimanja has repeatedly assured the public that the Commission will deliver results within the legally mandated eight-day window, but not at the expense of due process. “The law gives the MEC eight days to finalise results, enough for speed, but also for careful verification,” she said in an official update. In a message delivered on September 22, Mtalimanja cautioned against premature celebrations, street demonstrations, and the spread of fake news, warning that “no tactic, whether street parties or protests, will pressure the commission to declare before due process.” She stressed that all complaints would be addressed through proper legal and administrative channels, and that public disorder would have no effect on the outcome.
This measured approach is informed by the painful memory of the annulled 2019 election, when Mutharika’s initial victory was overturned by the courts due to irregularities, leading to the historic rerun in 2020. The specter of past controversy has made accuracy paramount in 2025, and both local and international observers have praised the peaceful conduct of the current vote. Missions from the African Union, the Southern African Development Community, and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa have all commended the MEC’s logistics and inclusivity, while also urging deeper reforms to address lingering gaps in the system.
Still, the process has not been entirely free of incident. In some councils, isolated cases of data manipulation were reported, leading to the arrest of eight data entry clerks for questioning as of September 19. Nevertheless, these incidents have not overshadowed the broader consensus that the election has been largely peaceful and orderly. A total of 4.6 million Malawians cast ballots for president, parliament, and local government, with 17 candidates vying for the top job—including former President Joyce Banda and Vice President Michael Usi. In the parliamentary race, 229 constituencies are being contested, alongside 509 local government wards.
As the final results approach, the political atmosphere is charged. Chakwera’s party has alleged rigging and lodged formal complaints, but several other candidates have already conceded. Dalitso Kabambe of the United Transformation Movement was among those to congratulate Mutharika, a gesture that has been echoed by at least four presidential contenders. The MEC, meanwhile, continues to warn against disinformation and urges leaders to calm their supporters, mindful of the potential for unrest in a nation with a history of contested elections.
The stakes could hardly be higher. A win for Mutharika would mark an extraordinary reversal of fortune for the 85-year-old, who lost the presidency five years ago in a court-ordered rerun after his 2019 victory was annulled. For Chakwera, the verdict would be a harsh judgment on a term marred by economic hardship and public discontent. For Malawians, the hope is that the final call—whenever it comes—will not only be swift, but credible enough to restore faith in the democratic process.
As the nation waits, the message from the electoral authorities is clear: patience, calm, and respect for the rule of law must prevail. The next chapter in Malawi’s democracy is about to be written, and the world is watching closely.