The first round of the 2025 US Open men’s singles draw is serving up a blockbuster clash between Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti, the tournament’s No. 10 seed, and France’s Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, one of the most intimidating unseeded players in the field. Set for Tuesday, August 26, this match is already generating buzz for its contrast in styles and the intriguing question: can Musetti’s finesse and all-court game withstand the sheer power of Mpetshi Perricard’s serve?
For Musetti, the lead-up to New York has been anything but smooth. The 23-year-old Italian, currently ranked World No. 10 and Italy’s No. 2, has struggled for momentum since his impressive run to the Roland Garros semifinals in June. After retiring injured against Carlos Alcaraz in Paris, Musetti’s form took a nosedive. He managed just one singles victory across four tournaments, his only win coming at the National Bank Open in Canada. The rest of his North American hard court swing was marked by early exits, including a first-round loss at Wimbledon. Despite a strong showing in doubles, Musetti’s singles record has left much to be desired as he heads into Flushing Meadows.
Historically, hard courts have not been Musetti’s best hunting ground. In his eight attempts at the Australian Open and US Open, he’s never advanced past the third round. His game is more naturally suited to clay—where he reached the Monte Carlo final and the semifinals in Madrid, Rome, and Paris this season—or even grass, as evidenced by his semifinal appearance at Wimbledon in 2024. With a year-to-date singles record of 26 wins and 12 losses, Musetti’s recent results have cast doubt on his ability to make a deep run in New York.
Across the net, Mpetshi Perricard stands as a 6’8” Frenchman whose serve has become the stuff of legend. The World No. 37, who narrowly missed being seeded at this year’s US Open, set the Wimbledon record for fastest serve earlier in 2025 with a jaw-dropping 153 mph bomb against Taylor Fritz. He’s no one-trick pony, but there’s no denying that his serve is his most potent weapon. As the modern game’s archetypal “serve-bot,” Mpetshi Perricard has racked up a hard court service game success rate of 85% this season. That’s enough to put any opponent under constant pressure, especially someone like Musetti who prefers longer rallies and more variety.
Yet, Mpetshi Perricard’s 2025 campaign hasn’t been without its hiccups. While he started the year strong with a semifinal in Brisbane, his European clay swing was underwhelming, yielding just two wins. On hard courts, he’s posted a 6-7 record so far this year. However, his run to the semifinals in Winston-Salem last week has given him a timely confidence boost. In Grand Slam play, Mpetshi Perricard is still searching for a signature win—he’s 0-4 against top-10 opponents, with losses to the likes of Alcaraz, Medvedev, Fritz, and Rune. Still, he came agonizingly close to a major upset at Wimbledon, taking the first two sets off Taylor Fritz before falling in five after a curfew-delayed finish.
Head-to-head, Musetti holds the edge, leading 2-0 in their previous meetings. Both encounters came on grass in 2024: first in Stuttgart, where Musetti eked out a double tiebreak victory (7-6(9), 7-6(9)), and then at Wimbledon, where he dropped the opening set before rallying for a four-set win (4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2). Those results might suggest a psychological advantage for the Italian, but both matches were closely contested—especially given the surface favored Mpetshi Perricard’s serve.
The stakes are high for both players. Musetti is desperate to rediscover his winning touch and avoid an early upset that could further dent his confidence. Mpetshi Perricard, on the other hand, is gunning for his first ever top-10 win and a breakthrough performance at a major. The winner of this clash will face either David Goffin or Quentin Halys in the second round—a tantalizing prospect for both men.
Predictions among tennis pundits are split, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Musetti’s form and Mpetshi Perricard’s potential to take the match out of his opponent’s hands with a barrage of aces. Some, like the analysts at The PlayOffs, believe Mpetshi Perricard has the tools to overturn the odds, especially if he targets Musetti’s backhand and applies relentless pressure on return. "If Mpetshi Perricard can apply pressure on his backhand wing and make some inroads on the Musetti serve, he is assured of a win," reads one preview. Others, including Sports Mole, see Musetti’s superior rally tolerance and tactical flexibility as enough to see him through, albeit in a grueling five-setter: "While victory for Mpetshi Perricard would not be surprising given the higher-ranked player’s circumstances, the No. 10 seed’s superior rally tolerance should see him outlast the young Frenchman, whose shot-making consistency remains uncertain."
There’s no shortage of intrigue when it comes to the tactical battle. Musetti will look to neutralize Mpetshi Perricard’s serve with his deft returns and try to extend rallies, forcing errors from the Frenchman’s less reliable one-handed backhand. Mpetshi Perricard, meanwhile, will aim to keep points short, hammering down aces and looking for quick winners off his forehand. The New York crowd can expect plenty of drama, with momentum swings likely as both players seek to impose their game styles on the match.
Betting markets reflect the uncertainty, with Musetti entering as the favorite—odds imply a 71% likelihood of victory according to BetMGM—but with nearly double the return on a Mpetshi Perricard upset. It’s a classic case of form versus firepower, and the outcome could hinge on just a few key points, especially if the match goes to tiebreaks, as their history suggests.
Regardless of who prevails, this first-round showdown is a microcosm of what makes Grand Slam tennis so compelling: the clash of styles, the unpredictability of form, and the ever-present possibility of an upset. As the action gets underway in Louis Armstrong Stadium, all eyes will be on whether Musetti can steady the ship or if Mpetshi Perricard can blast his way into the second round—and perhaps into the tournament’s headlines.
With both men hungry for a statement win and the stage set for a dramatic encounter, the opening round in New York promises fireworks. Tennis fans won’t want to miss a single serve or rally as Musetti and Mpetshi Perricard battle for a place in the US Open’s next chapter.
