As Moldovans prepare to cast their ballots on September 28, 2025, the nation stands at a political crossroads, with the stakes reaching far beyond its borders. President Maia Sandu, addressing the European Parliament, didn’t mince words: she called the upcoming parliamentary elections the “final battle” against what she described as Moldova’s “greatest threat: Russia.” Her warning isn’t just political posturing—recent events and mounting evidence reveal an unprecedented campaign of foreign interference, disinformation, and destabilization targeting Moldova’s fragile democracy.
In the days leading up to the vote, Moldovan authorities arrested 74 individuals, aged between 19 and 45, suspected of plotting mass riots and unrest. According to a live briefing by Moldova’s police, these arrests came after a series of raids that uncovered weapons, ammunition, tents, and camouflage clothing. Police officials stated the plot was “coordinated from the Russian Federation through criminal elements,” highlighting the scale and seriousness of the threat. The timing couldn’t be more critical: the arrests followed a September 22 report by Bloomberg detailing Russia’s plan to interfere in Moldova’s parliamentary elections, and more than 250 searches were conducted nationwide as part of a broader effort to prevent mass disorder and destabilization.
The threat is multifaceted. The Foreign Intelligence Service recently reported that dozens of individuals with questionable backgrounds are seeking accreditation as international election observers. Many of these so-called observers have previously participated in controversial referendums in Crimea, the occupied territories of Donbas, and Abkhazia—events widely criticized for creating a false veneer of legitimacy. Among the applicants are Serbian activist Dragana Trifkovic and Italian Vito Grittani, both of whom are already flagged in the European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE) database of fake observers. Perhaps most curiously, about 30 applications came from the African organization Institut Africa Solidarité, a group with no previous interest in Moldova’s elections but known for its cooperation with Russia, including attendance at the BRICS summit in Kazan and participation in Russian elections. The Central Election Commission of Moldova assured the public that all applications are being carefully vetted by the country’s Information and Security Service.
Yet, the concern is that those denied observer status may use their rejection as a pretext to declare the elections “undemocratic,” potentially at Russia’s behest. This tactic, according to Moldovan intelligence, fits into a broader pattern of hybrid warfare employed by Moscow—one that blends disinformation, vote-buying, manipulation of diaspora voters, and energy blackmail.
The political landscape is as polarized as ever. Out of 23 registered electoral contestants, three main blocs dominate the field. The pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), led by Sandu, faces off against the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), the primary pro-Russian coalition. A third contender, the Alternative Bloc, was founded this year and presents itself as pro-EU, but its leadership has shown a favorable stance toward Moscow. Its leader, Ion Ceban, Mayor of Chisinau, was banned from the Schengen Area in Romania in July, a move shrouded in mystery and tension.
Polls suggest a neck-and-neck race: the pro-Russian BEP leads with 33.4%, while PAS trails closely at 31.6%, according to PolitPro electoral trends. The outcome will not only shape Moldova’s future but also signal the trajectory of Russian influence in Eastern Europe. As Sandu put it, “The Kremlin's goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use it against Ukraine, and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks in the European Union.”
Moldova’s vulnerability to Russian pressure is rooted in its complex history. The nation marked 34 years of independence from the Soviet Union this year, but the scars of past conflicts remain raw. The eastern region of Transnistria, a self-proclaimed republic backed by Moscow, has been a flashpoint since the early 1990s. About 1,500 Russian troops remain stationed there as “peacekeepers,” and the area’s population is deeply aligned with Russia—nearly half hold Russian citizenship and speak Russian natively. In January, Russia cut off natural gas supplies to both Moldova and Transnistria, leading to widespread outages and further exacerbating tensions. Prime Minister Dorin Recean accused Moscow of orchestrating a “fabricated humanitarian crisis.”
Energy isn’t the only lever. Russian disinformation efforts have grown increasingly sophisticated. WatchDog.MD, a Moldovan think tank, uncovered a network of over 910 coordinated accounts across YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, all amplifying pro-Russian narratives. These accounts, many of which use fake identities, serve to promote pro-Russian politicians and sow distrust in Moldova’s institutions. Among the figures benefiting from this campaign are Victoria Furtuna, an ally of the banned Șor Party; George Simion, a Romanian nationalist; and Ilan Șor, a fugitive oligarch and central figure in Russian influence operations.
The Orthodox Church has also been drawn into the fray. Investigators found that at least 20 priests from the Orthodox Church of Moldova, affiliated with the Russian Patriarchate, received funds from Russia through Promsvyazbank. These funds were funneled to activists and parties linked to Șor, with clergy spreading pro-Russian and anti-EU messaging. Bishop Marchel of Bălți and Fălești, for example, has openly supported Victoria Furtuna and now plays a prominent role in Moscow’s propaganda efforts, according to WatchDog.MD.
Russian influence extends beyond Moldova’s borders. The country’s diaspora—estimated at 250,000 voters—has become a prime target for disinformation and manipulation. In the October 2024 referendum on Moldova’s EU bid, more than 130,000 Moldovans abroad were reportedly bribed by a Russia-managed network, according to national police chief Viorel Cernautanu. Sandu has estimated that Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP meddling in elections that year. The infamous “Matryoshka” network, notorious for spreading Kremlin propaganda, has used AI chatbots and fake videos to amplify its reach, falsely claiming, for instance, that “42% of absentee ballots in Moldova’s 2024 presidential election were cast using dead voters’ identities.”
Further complicating matters, engagement farms in Africa have been enlisted to boost Kremlin-aligned content. Reset Tech, a nonprofit monitoring digital threats, linked the African-based RestMedia to Russian amplification-for-hire schemes, with a quarter of its output focusing on Moldova and spreading anti-EU propaganda.
Russia’s efforts are not limited to online manipulation. Between April and July 2025, over 1,500 ads sponsored by Russian actors appeared on Meta platforms, pushing narratives that the PAS government would rig the elections and persecute the Orthodox Church. BBC investigators even uncovered a network paying recruits up to $170 a month to flood TikTok and Facebook with pro-Russian messages, training them to spread fake news and secretly record supposed evidence of electoral fraud.
Why this intense focus on Moldova? As Eugen Muravschi of WatchDog.md explained, “Moscow’s aims go far beyond influencing the ballot box. Control of Moldova would allow Russia to circumvent sanctions, weaken European unity on Ukraine, amplify pressure on Romania, and even launch sabotage operations deeper into Europe.” Moldova’s strategic location on Ukraine’s southwestern border means that a Kremlin-friendly government in Chișinău could threaten Ukraine’s vital Black Sea port of Odesa and entrench Russian leverage in the region.
As Moldovans head to the polls, the world watches closely. The outcome will determine not just the nation’s future, but the balance of power in Eastern Europe—and perhaps the fate of democracy itself in the region.