As Moldova braces for its pivotal parliamentary election on September 28, 2025, the small Eastern European nation has found itself at the epicenter of a high-stakes geopolitical struggle. In recent weeks, Moldovan authorities have sounded the alarm over what they describe as an unprecedented campaign of Russian interference, with both the government in Chisinau and international observers warning that the outcome could have profound consequences not only for Moldova, but for the broader region – especially neighboring Ukraine and the European Union.
The latest chapter in this escalating drama unfolded on September 22, when Moldovan police, prosecutors, and intelligence agencies conducted a sweeping operation across the country. According to Deutsche Welle, some 250 searches were carried out, resulting in the arrest of 74 individuals and the seizure of large amounts of money, weapons, and ammunition. Authorities allege that those detained, aged between 19 and 45, had received systematic training in military camps in Serbia. There, they reportedly learned how to organize destabilization, orchestrate mass riots, and handle specialized equipment. The head of the Information and Security Service, Aleksandar Mustața, stated that these trainings were coordinated by Russian special services, including the notorious General Directorate of Military Intelligence, or GRU.
"Behind the planning and coordination of the training in Serbia was a person who, on behalf of the Russian special services, presented himself under the pseudonym 'Rage'," Mustața announced at a press conference. He added that another key figure, identified as Andrei Pavlov Vladimirovich, a GRU officer, was suspected of planning and organizing several subversive actions on Moldovan soil, with funding funneled from Russia, including through the network of convicted oligarch Ilan Shor.
President Maia Sandu, who has become the face of Moldova’s pro-European ambitions, delivered a dramatic televised appeal just days before the election. "The Kremlin is investing hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on both sides of the Dniester, but also abroad. People are exposed to dozens of lies every day. Hundreds of people are paid to cause riots, violence and intimidate the people," she warned, as reported by Deutsche Welle. Sandu urged citizens not to allow the country to be "handed over to foreign interests," emphasizing, "Our national interest is peace and freedom. If Russia manages to gain control over Moldova, the consequences will be direct and very dangerous for both our country and the entire region." She cautioned that Moldova could become a springboard for Russian infiltration into Ukraine’s Odesa region and that the breakaway region of Transnistria could be further destabilized.
These warnings are not without precedent. According to the Atlantic Council, allegations of Russian interference have become a near-constant feature of Moldovan elections. During the 2024 presidential contest, the Kremlin reportedly spent $217 million to back proxies, a staggering sum that equates to nearly 1 percent of Moldova’s GDP. Despite this, Sandu narrowly defeated the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo. Now, with the stakes arguably even higher, Moldovan authorities say Russia has escalated its tactics, deploying cyberattacks, propaganda, party financing, and disinformation campaigns that target not only voters at home but also the Moldovan diaspora, whose support was crucial to Sandu’s previous victory.
On September 23, anti-corruption officers conducted more than 30 additional raids as part of an investigation into illegal party financing via cryptocurrencies from Russia. The National Anticorruption Centre, working alongside prosecutors in Balti, uncovered what they described as a sophisticated money laundering and electoral corruption scheme involving party members linked to Moscow. According to Devdiscourse, cash worth $50,000 and incriminating documents were seized, with further sums laundered through crypto channels before being converted to cash and distributed by couriers. One suspect was detained, and authorities say their efforts are ongoing as they seek to root out foreign influence ahead of the vote.
The broader context is one of mounting tension between Moldova’s pro-EU aspirations and persistent Russian influence. The pro-Western Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), led by Sandu, is forecasted to receive about 25 percent of the vote, according to Atlantic Council election forecasts. While this would likely give PAS a plurality, it may not be enough for a majority, raising the prospect of a coalition government that could include pro-Russian parties such as Stoianoglo’s Alternative Bloc and the Socialist-leaning Patriotic Bloc. This, analysts warn, could seriously undermine Moldova’s European integration efforts.
The stakes are high not just for Moldova, but for Ukraine and the EU as well. Moldova shares a 1,222-kilometer border with Ukraine and is home to Transnistria, a Kremlin-backed breakaway territory hosting around 1,500 Russian soldiers and large stockpiles of Soviet-era military equipment. Moldovan intelligence assessments, cited by the Atlantic Council, suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to reinforce Transnistria by sending an additional 10,000 troops – a move that could become feasible if a Moscow-friendly government is elected in Chisinau. Such a development would force Ukraine to divert military resources from other fronts, heightening the threat to Odesa, the country’s vital port city.
Meanwhile, the EU has recognized the high stakes, committing nearly $2 billion in aid to Moldova in late 2024 to bolster its economic security and resist Russian influence. However, the Western response has not been entirely unified. While Brussels steps up, the United States has recently closed offices dedicated to combating Russian disinformation and has reduced funding for democracy assistance programs in Eastern Europe, raising concerns in Chisinau about the durability of Western support.
For Russia, the Moldovan election represents an opportunity to reassert its influence in a region where its power has been challenged by ongoing war in Ukraine and shifting allegiances in the former Soviet sphere. A pro-Kremlin victory in Moldova, experts say, would not only stall EU integration for both Moldova and Ukraine but also create a new security flashpoint on Europe’s eastern flank.
Sandu’s message to her compatriots is clear: "We must show everyone that Moldova is not a piece of land that can be sold or bought for thirty pieces of silver, but our sacred home." As Moldovans prepare to cast their ballots, the outcome will reverberate far beyond the country’s borders, shaping the fate of a nation caught between East and West, and determining whether Moldova remains on its current path toward Europe or veers back into Moscow’s orbit.