On Sunday, September 28, 2025, Moldovans head to the polls in a parliamentary election fraught with tension, uncertainty, and high stakes for the country's future. The outcome could determine whether this small nation, wedged between Ukraine and Romania, continues its westward march toward the European Union or is pulled back into Moscow's orbit—a decision with implications far beyond its borders.
In recent weeks, the atmosphere in Chisinau has grown increasingly charged. According to France 24, the election is not just about choosing a new 101-seat parliament for Moldova’s 2.6 million citizens. It's a referendum on the country's geopolitical direction, with the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, facing off against a collection of Russia-friendly opponents united under the Patriotic Electoral Bloc. The stakes? As PAS leader Igor Grosu bluntly put it, “It would mean an end to EU integration if PAS fails to win a majority on Sunday. It would mean dependence, halting all justice reforms, infrastructure projects, everything … there is no middle option.”
But the road to Election Day has been anything but straightforward. Claims of Russian interference have dominated headlines, with Prime Minister Dorin Recean warning that Russia has spent "hundreds of millions of euros" in a campaign to "seize power in Chisinau." Alleged tactics range from large-scale vote-buying and cyberattacks on government infrastructure to plans for inciting mass riots and a sprawling online disinformation campaign. Moldovan authorities, in response, have conducted hundreds of raids, detaining scores of people. Just last Sunday, 74 individuals were arrested on suspicion of planning riots, many allegedly trained in Serbia under the guise of religious pilgrimages.
President Sandu has not minced words. In a recent public address, she accused the Kremlin of having "accomplices here in Moldova," describing them as people “willing to sell out their country for money.” Her government’s crackdown has been swift and, to critics, controversial. On Friday, the Central Electoral Commission barred two opposition parties—Heart of Moldova and Moldova Mare—from the ballot, citing court rulings over illegal financing and voter bribery. Heart of Moldova’s leader, Irina Vlah, condemned the move as “a political spectacle, concocted a long time ago,” and was subsequently banned from entering three EU countries over allegations of aiding Russian interference. Moldova Mare’s leader, Victoria Furtuna, was sanctioned by the EU in July for receiving "significant support" from fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.
Russia, for its part, has flatly denied any meddling. The Russian foreign ministry dismissed the allegations as "anti-Russian" and "unsubstantiated," a stance echoed by Moscow-friendly politicians in Moldova. Igor Dodon, former president and leader of the Socialist Party, lashed out at Sandu and PAS, declaring, "They understand that their end is near, so they resort to abusing our colleagues in the bloc. We will win the elections, and together we will defend our victory."
The shadow of Transnistria, a breakaway region with Russian peacekeepers since the 1992 separatist war, looms large over the vote. Authorities have slashed the number of polling stations for the region’s 300,000+ Moldovan citizens from 42 in 2021 to just 12 this year. In contrast, the diaspora in Western Europe, which overwhelmingly favors pro-EU parties, enjoys expanded access with 301 polling stations abroad—75 in Italy alone. Critics argue this disparity is no accident. As one OSCE observer told The Times of India, "When you make it easy for your supporters to vote and difficult for your opponents, that’s not democracy, it’s manipulation."
Election infrastructure is under intense scrutiny. The Central Electoral Commission reports 3,299,396 registered voters, but the diaspora’s role—expected to make up 8% of turnout—remains hard to gauge. In the last presidential run-off, a record 327,000 Moldovans voted abroad, with over 82% supporting Sandu. This year, with 2,274 polling stations (1,973 in Moldova, 301 abroad, and 12 for Transnistria), the logistical battle is as fierce as the political one.
International observers are watching closely. The OSCE has deployed 15 core experts, 30 long-term observers, and plans to field 200 short-term observers on election day. The U.S. Embassy in Chisinau has issued a security alert, urging American citizens to "exercise heightened caution" and avoid large gatherings during the election period. The specter of unrest is real—especially after the recent arrests and the exclusion of major opposition parties from the ballot.
Western support for Moldova has become a point of contention between Washington and Brussels. During the Biden administration, USAID redirected tens of millions of dollars—originally earmarked for Ukraine—to shore up Sandu’s government, a move that former USAID chief Samantha Power described as “unprecedented investments.” However, the new U.S. administration, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, has questioned the effectiveness of this aid. Vance, in a pointed critique, remarked, “If a democracy can be toppled by a few hundred thousand dollars in foreign Facebook ads, maybe it wasn’t that strong to start with.”
The European Union, meanwhile, is doubling down. Brussels has committed up to €1.9 billion ($2.2 billion) between 2025 and 2027—the largest aid package in Moldova’s history. €270 million was allocated in July for projects ranging from a new hospital to lowering energy bills. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have all made appearances in Chisinau, signaling strong support for Sandu’s pro-EU platform. EU Council President António Costa stated that technical negotiations on membership would launch after the elections “provided that the outcome reaffirms the Republic of Moldova’s commitment to its European course.”
Yet, not all Moldovans are convinced. Years of rampant inflation, rising living costs, and persistent poverty have eroded some of the enthusiasm for pro-Western reforms. As Eugen, a 41-year-old artist in Chisinau, told the Associated Press, “We need to have more patience in our course to the European Union… it’s stability, it’s human rights … some kind of unity, some kind of prosperity and meritocracy.” But even he acknowledges that voters are fatigued from “high expectations and expecting miracles.”
Polls suggest a fragmented outcome. The PAS is projected to capture between 25% and 48% of the vote, while the Patriotic Electoral Bloc could claim up to 36%. With over one-third of voters undecided in the days leading up to the election, coalition negotiations seem inevitable. The nation’s future—its alliances, its reforms, and even its peace—hangs in the balance.
As the world watches, Moldova stands at a crossroads, caught between competing visions of its destiny and the powerful forces vying for influence. The coming days will reveal whether its democracy can withstand the storm or if, as some fear, the pressures from East and West will prove too great.