Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s arrival in China this weekend marks a pivotal moment for Asian diplomacy, as the leader embarks on his first visit to the country in seven years. The trip, which coincides with a period of strained relations between India and the United States, comes at a time when the global order is shifting, and nations are recalibrating their alliances and economic strategies.
Modi will participate in the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, beginning Sunday, August 31, 2025. This high-profile gathering will see over 20 heads of state in attendance, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to UPI. The summit’s timing could hardly be more significant, given the recent escalation in trade tensions between India and the US.
Just days before Modi’s departure, the US government doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, a move Washington justified by pointing to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil and defense hardware. As The Guardian reported, these tariffs—among the highest imposed on any country by the US—affect roughly two-thirds of India’s $86.5 billion annual exports to America, or about $60.2 billion in goods. The blow is especially harsh for labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry, which are already feeling the pinch.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst, captured the sense of betrayal felt in New Delhi: "Indian trust in the US is shattered. I’m not sure whether US officials fully realise how much trust they have squandered in such a short time." His comments, cited by both The Guardian and UPI, reflect a broader sentiment of disillusionment that has forced India to look elsewhere for economic and strategic partners.
The economic repercussions are already being felt. Indian National Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge warned on social media that the tariffs could result in a $24.72 billion loss across ten key sectors, massive job losses in export-related industries, and a hit to nearly 1% of India’s GDP. "We will lose [approximately $24.72 billion] as the first jolt to this tariff, across 10 sectors alone," Kharge stated on X, emphasizing the potential impact on Indian farmers and workers.
Washington’s rationale for the tariffs is clear: by continuing to buy Russian oil, India is, in the US view, helping to fund Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Donald Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, took to X to accuse India of becoming an "oil money laundromat for the Kremlin." Yet India has consistently defended its Russian oil purchases, arguing that they are essential for keeping energy costs stable in a vast, developing economy, stabilizing global prices, and remaining compliant with international law. Modi, for his part, has tried to walk a tightrope on the Ukraine conflict—refusing to criticize Moscow directly while urging peace.
The shift in India’s foreign policy posture is evident in its recent flurry of diplomatic activity. Before heading to China, Modi traveled to Tokyo for the annual India-Japan summit, where he met Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The visit, as reported by The Guardian, was aimed at deepening defense, technology, and investment ties with Japan—a signal that India is actively seeking to cushion the blow of lost US market access. Japanese companies are expected to invest up to ¥10 trillion ($68 billion) in India over the next decade, with Suzuki Motor alone pledging about $8 billion (£6 billion) in the next five to six years. Modi described the India-Japan partnership as being “made for each other,” following a visit to a Suzuki plant in India.
India’s efforts to diversify its economic relationships don’t stop there. In response to the US tariffs, the Indian government rolled out an ambitious export drive across 40 countries, from the UK to South Korea, in a bid to boost its textile trade and offset the impact of American duties. This campaign, launched on August 28, 2025, underscores New Delhi’s determination to reduce its dependency on any single market and build new trade bridges.
For China, the timing of the SCO summit is fortuitous. As Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, observed, “No doubt there are some in China who are revelling in the trade tensions between India and the US.” The summit offers Beijing an opportunity to present itself as a stable and attractive partner at a time when India’s relationship with Washington is on the rocks. According to Kugelman, “Modi will be in China at a moment when India-China relations are stabilising and India-US relations have gone south. It is a powerful optic.”
The India-China relationship has been fraught in recent years. A deadly border clash in the Himalayas in 2020 claimed the lives of 20 Indian and five Chinese soldiers, leading to a freeze in diplomatic ties. India responded by banning Chinese apps like TikTok and calling for boycotts of Chinese goods, while China built villages along the disputed 2,200-mile border to bolster its military infrastructure, as UPI reported. But a thaw began last October when Modi and Xi met at the BRICS summit in Russia—their first in-person meeting in four years. Since then, direct flights between the two countries have resumed, and China reopened a pilgrimage site in the mountains for Indian visitors.
Now, Modi is expected to meet Xi on the sidelines of the SCO summit, with trade and investment high on the agenda. “An effort is under way to see if India and China can reach some sort of new equilibrium,” Kewalramani told The Guardian. “Both recognise that the world order is in flux. Neither is likely to decisively manage all the frictions but there’s at least a process of trying to grow the relationship.” He cautioned, however, that “historical mistrust will remain,” especially given China’s ongoing reinforcement of its frontier with new roads, railways, and settlements. Still, even a measure of stability and predictability could yield practical gains for both sides.
Russia, too, stands to benefit from the current diplomatic realignment. With the US-India relationship on ice, Delhi sees its ties with Moscow as more vital than ever for balancing its relations with the West, diversifying its military hardware purchases, and ensuring energy security. As Kugelman put it, the summit is “a great moment for everyone to stick out their tongues at Washington.”
Despite these shifts, Indian officials stress that Delhi does not wish to sever ties with the US. Instead, they emphasize the need to “diversify its partnerships” and avoid appearing to capitulate to American pressure—especially on the sensitive issue of oil imports. Public anger over the tariffs is running high, and the Modi government is keenly aware of the domestic political stakes.
As the world watches the SCO summit unfold, the images of Modi standing alongside Xi and Putin will send a pointed message to Washington: India is not isolated, and it has options. The coming days may not produce dramatic breakthroughs, but they will almost certainly shape the contours of Asian diplomacy and global trade for years to come.
In the end, Modi’s China visit is more than just a diplomatic gesture—it’s a statement of intent from a country determined to chart its own course through an increasingly unpredictable world.