Explosions echoed over Dubai in the early hours of March 17, 2026, as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) military scrambled to intercept incoming Iranian missiles and drones. The sudden barrage forced the UAE to briefly close its airspace, a rare move that underscored just how far the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has spread across the Middle East. According to the UAE’s state-run WAM news agency, the closure was lifted within hours as authorities declared the situation stabilized, but not before a missile warning alert was sent across Dubai. The sound of explosions startled residents, with some describing the night as “unlike anything we’ve heard before.”
This was just one flashpoint in a conflict that is now in its third week, with no clear sign of de-escalation. The war, ignited by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, has rapidly intensified, dragging in neighboring countries and upending the region’s fragile stability. The Israeli military announced a “wide-scale wave of strikes” across Tehran and stepped up attacks on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. The Lebanese government has reported that more than one million of its citizens—about 20% of the population—have been displaced, and at least 850 have been killed. Israeli troops have pushed into southern Lebanon, raising fears of a full-scale invasion. Israel’s defense minister has declared that displaced Lebanese will not be allowed to return until the north of Israel is secured.
The violence has not spared civilians. In Iran, a string of attacks has left devastation in its wake. According to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a U.S.-Israeli strike in the city of Arak killed a three-day-old baby, his two-year-old sister, their mother, and grandmother. Amnesty International confirmed that a U.S. attack on a primary school in Minab killed at least 170 people, most of them young girls. The Iranian Red Crescent reports more than 1,300 killed, while other estimates put the toll at 1,444 with over 18,000 injured since the war began. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has insisted, “Iran did not start the war and will not surrender to bullies.”
Iran’s response has been both fierce and calculated. The regime, which replaced its slain supreme leader with his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has shown resilience that surprised many Western analysts. Despite internal protests earlier in the year, many Iranians have rallied behind their government, driven by nationalism and a sense of civilizational pride. Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles at Israel, American bases, and Gulf energy infrastructure. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared, “From our perspective [the Strait of Hormuz] is open—just not for the United States, Israel, and its allies.”
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy, has become a flashpoint. Iranian strikes on commercial shipping have reduced traffic to a trickle, sending Brent crude oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel—a 50% spike since late February. The International Energy Agency has tried to cushion the blow by releasing 400 million barrels of oil and tapping into additional reserves, but the economic shock is being felt worldwide. Japan has started releasing its strategic oil stocks, and the financial markets remain jittery.
President Donald Trump, facing mounting pressure at home and abroad, has called on allies to send warships to secure the Strait. “Numerous countries have told me they’re on the way,” Trump told reporters, though he admitted that some were reluctant, hinting at frustration with the lack of reciprocity in defense agreements. The United Kingdom is working on a plan to deploy mine-hunting drones but has vowed not to be “drawn into the wider war.” Japan and Australia, for their part, have not been asked to participate and have no plans to do so. European leaders have pushed back against Trump’s demands, with Germany and the EU foreign policy chief noting there is “no appetite” to send troops.
As the war grinds on, the objectives of each side remain murky. The U.S. and Israel have declared their intent to degrade or destroy the Iranian regime and its missile capabilities, but their endgame is far from clear. Trump’s goals have shifted from demanding a favorable nuclear deal to regime change, and even to “a little excursion” to remove “some evil” leaders. He has claimed the war’s costs will be temporary and has suggested the conflict will end “when he feels it in his bones.” In the meantime, the U.S. has intensified its bombardment, claiming to have hit 15,000 targets and destroyed every military site on Iran’s Kharg Island, the main terminal for 90% of the country’s oil exports. There is talk of occupying the island and inviting China—an unlikely partner given its ties to Iran—to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, by contrast, has been more explicit. He seeks not only to topple the Islamic regime but to diminish the Iranian state itself. Netanyahu has also revived talk of a “greater Israel,” drawing on Biblical references, and has sent Nowruz wishes to the Iranian people, perhaps as a gesture of psychological warfare. Israel’s military spokesman, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, claimed that 85% of Iran’s air defenses and 70% of its missile launchers have been destroyed in approximately 7,600 strikes. In Israel, 12 people have died from Iranian missile fire, and at least 13 U.S. military personnel have been killed.
The conflict has spilled into neighboring Gulf states. In addition to the UAE’s airspace closure, Qatar intercepted 13 out of 14 ballistic missiles launched from Iran, and Kuwait foiled a sabotage plot allegedly linked to Hezbollah. Bahrain reports it has neutralized 129 missiles and 221 drones since the war began. Saudi Arabia’s defense forces intercepted 12 drones in its Eastern region.
In Iraq, violence has surged as well. A drone set fire to a luxury hotel in Baghdad’s Green Zone, and a rocket attack on the U.S. Embassy was foiled. The powerful armed group Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its senior security commander Abu Ali al-Askari, while the Iraqi government condemned these attacks as “terrorist.”
The humanitarian toll is staggering. Millions have been displaced across Lebanon and Iran. The destruction of homes, schools, and vital infrastructure has left entire communities in ruins. The war has also deepened divisions among world powers, with Russia and China supporting Iran diplomatically, and European countries wary of deeper involvement. As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned, an Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon “would further exacerbate the already highly tense humanitarian situation.”
How will this conflict end? Analysts see two possible outcomes: either one side runs out of missiles and interceptors, or Trump declares victory for domestic political reasons. In either case, both sides will likely claim some form of success. Yet whatever the result, it is clear that Iranian and Lebanese civilians have borne the brunt of the violence—and the region faces a long, uncertain road ahead.