As the calendar flips to 2026, the Miami Heat find themselves at a pivotal crossroads in the NBA season, riding a surge of momentum that has fans buzzing with cautious optimism. After a rocky December, where the team stumbled to a 5-8 record, Miami has rediscovered its trademark fast-paced style, closing out 2025 with a three-game win streak and extending that run to four by outlasting the Detroit Pistons 118-112. This recent burst has the Heat sitting at 18-15, tied for sixth in the highly competitive Eastern Conference and holding the No. 7 seed outright according to some sources.
But where exactly do the Heat stand in the eyes of league experts as the new year begins? The answer, it seems, depends on whom you ask. The Athletic’s Law Murray slots Miami at No. 13 in his power rankings, noting, “This season began with a jolt, but a five-game losing streak this month brought the Heat back to .500. Teams know the Heat are playing fast now, but the jury is still out on whether Miami is talented enough to sustain the success it had to begin this season.” It’s a sentiment echoed by NBA.com’s John Schuhmann, who also places Miami at No. 13, highlighting the team’s dramatic swings in tempo and efficiency. “The Heat scored just 91 points on 95 possessions in their loss to the Raptors on Tuesday, both their slowest-paced and worst offensive game of the season. But they picked the pace back up in their weekend back-to-back, averaging 110 offensive possessions per game and scoring 121.8 points per 100 possessions over the two wins. They’re now 13-5 when they’ve played at a pace of at least 103 possessions per 48 minutes and 4-10 when they’ve played slower.”
Other analysts are a bit more skeptical. Bleacher Report’s Andy Bailey ranks Miami at No. 17, pointing to the team’s ongoing offensive challenges. “The Miami Heat have sort of papered over their years-long struggle with offense by playing at the league’s fastest pace, but they still rank in the bottom half of the league in points per 100 possessions. … If they don’t get a midseason breakout on that end from someone like Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Bam Adebayo, it’s hard to imagine the Heat breaking free of the middle of the NBA’s pack.” CBS Sports’ Brad Botkin is even more reserved, listing Miami at No. 18 and noting, “Miami answered a three-game losing streak with a three-game win streak including a 24-point win over the Nuggets (Jokić got hurt and only played 19 minutes, but still that’s a big win). Miami is hanging around the play-in line, currently No. 7 but tied in the loss column with No. 6 Orlando.” ESPN, meanwhile, splits the difference at No. 15, underscoring the need for greater consistency from the team’s emerging stars.
One such star is Kel’el Ware, whose recent performances have drawn plenty of attention. According to ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk, “Ware is still only 21 and has flashed massive potential. Entering Tuesday’s game against Toronto, Ware went on a three-game double-double tear. He had 28 points and 19 rebounds in a loss to the Knicks, and in a loss to Boston, Ware put up 24 points and 14 rebounds. Before that, in a win at Brooklyn, Ware had 22 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks. During that same span, the 7-footer buried a combined 12-of-16 from beyond the arc. Of course, the issue is consistency, effort and delivering what Erik Spoelstra needs. Just before that massive three-game stretch, Ware had a combined 19 points in the four games prior. The slumping Heat will need a consistently impactful Ware to get back on the right track.”
With the new year comes a daunting January schedule. Miami is set to play 17 games this month, starting with a rematch against the Detroit Pistons. The Heat lost their first meeting with Detroit in a 138-135 shootout, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle as they look to continue their winning streak. The action doesn’t let up, with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards coming to town for the first of two matchups in January, followed by a back-to-back against the New Orleans Pelicans, who enter 2026 with a dismal 8-26 record.
Miami’s schedule is peppered with crucial tests. The Heat will face the Chicago Bulls on January 8, having dominated their first meeting 143-107. The Indiana Pacers await on January 10, with Miami having secured a convincing 142-116 victory in their previous encounter. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder loom large on January 11, marking the first of two January matchups. The Heat will also host the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics, the latter of whom handed Miami a 129-116 defeat in their first meeting this season.
Road warriors beware: a five-game trip awaits, beginning with a showdown against the Golden State Warriors on January 19. Miami took the first matchup 110-96 against a shorthanded Warriors squad, but the rematch promises to be a tougher test. The Heat will then visit the Sacramento Kings, seeking revenge after a lopsided 127-111 loss, before facing the Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, and Phoenix Suns on consecutive nights. The grueling stretch will test Miami’s depth and stamina, especially as they try to avoid the pitfalls of December’s sluggish pace.
Back at home, the Heat will square off against the Orlando Magic on January 28. The Magic have had Miami’s number this season, leading the series 3-0, and the Heat will be eager to flip the script in front of their fans. Miami closes out the month with another tilt against the Bulls, setting up a rapid-fire rematch just days later on February 1.
For head coach Erik Spoelstra, the challenge is clear: maintain the team’s uptempo identity while coaxing more consistent production from his young core. The Heat’s success hinges on their ability to dictate the pace—when they play fast, they win, but when the tempo drags, so does their offense. The numbers don’t lie: Miami is 13-5 when playing at a pace of at least 103 possessions per 48 minutes, but just 4-10 when forced into a slower game.
Fans are watching closely to see whether breakout performances from players like Ware, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro can lift the Heat out of the NBA’s crowded middle tier. With 17 games on tap and playoff positioning at stake, every night brings a new test—and perhaps, a new hero. Can Miami keep up the pace and silence the doubters? The next month will tell the tale.
As the Heat gear up for a January gauntlet, their recent resurgence has injected fresh hope into South Florida. The question now is whether they can sustain this momentum and make a real push up the Eastern Conference standings. One thing’s for sure: the action is just heating up.
