Meta Platforms Faces High Stakes With AI Investments

Meta Platforms, the tech giant behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, continues to make headlines as it navigates a pivotal moment in its history. With the company’s stock trading near $639.29 on February 18, 2026—down from recent highs but still well above the $461 mark of early 2024—investors and analysts alike are closely watching how Meta’s bold bets on artificial intelligence and massive infrastructure spending will shape its future. The numbers tell a story of both strong growth and mounting risks, with the company’s latest quarterly results and ambitious $100 billion-plus AI investment plan drawing intense scrutiny from Wall Street and beyond. According to Capital.com and Meyka AI, Meta’s stock has experienced significant swings over the past two years, breaking above $700 in the second half of 2025 before settling back into the high-$600s and low-$700s range by early 2026. As of February 18, 2026, the shares trade within a 52-week range of $479.80 to $796.25, reflecting both the soaring optimism around AI-driven innovation and the volatility that comes with such rapid change. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, reported in late January, underscored the power of AI to transform Meta’s core business. Revenue for the quarter hit approximately $59.9 billion, up 24% year over year, while diluted earnings per share came in at $8.88—both figures handily beating market expectations, as noted by Forbes. For the full year, revenue grew about 22% to roughly $201 billion, fueled by a 24% surge in advertising revenue that many attribute to Meta’s advanced AI ad targeting capabilities and the integration of its Llama 4 creative tools. “Advertisers are paying for better outcomes, supporting higher auction density and yield,” Meyka AI observed, pointing to the impact of tools like Andromeda and Llama 4. These AI engines have improved conversion quality and ad return on investment, helping Meta maintain pricing power and close the gap with search-style advertising outcomes. Automated creative testing and budget rebalancing toward formats like Reels and Advantage+ Shopping have further supported the company’s momentum. But the other side of this AI revolution is a staggering capital expenditure plan. Management has signaled that Meta’s investment in AI infrastructure—including new data centers, custom silicon, and advanced networking—could top $100 billion by 2026. While these investments are intended to support the next generation of AI-driven services, they also raise questions about margins and free cash flow, especially if revenue growth slows. As TipRanks and other analysts highlighted, Meta’s capex-to-revenue ratio currently stands at 34.68%, while R&D-to-revenue is 28.55%. The company’s operating margin was reported at 41.44%, with a net margin of 30.08% and a free cash flow yield of 2.86%. These are robust figures, but they come with a caveat: “That scale can weigh on free cash flow if ad growth cools,” Meyka AI cautioned. The real test will be whether Meta can translate its enormous infrastructure spend into sustained ad yield and new AI services that justify the investment. Technical signals as of February 18, 2026, paint a mixed picture. The stock price sits below both its 50-day ($658.19) and 200-day ($688.86) moving averages, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.76 indicating short-term oversold conditions. The day’s trading range was $628.80 to $642.59, with initial support identified near $628 to $605 and resistance at $667 and then $705. Bollinger Bands and other momentum indicators suggest active daily swings, making timing and risk management crucial for traders. Looking ahead, the next major catalyst is Meta’s scheduled earnings report on April 29, 2026. Investors are eager for guidance on how the company’s AI clusters are being utilized and whether the massive capex outlay is yielding the expected returns. “The meta stock price will react to visibility on ROI, not just spend,” Meyka AI noted. Analysts will be watching closely for any updates on ad demand, capex cadence, and the performance of AI-driven products like Andromeda and Llama 4. Wall Street’s outlook remains broadly positive, albeit with a note of caution. As of February 11, 2026, third-party price targets for Meta Platforms ranged from $730 (BMO Capital Markets) to $910 (Jefferies Financial Group), with most major brokers—including Barclays, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America—maintaining overweight or buy ratings. These targets reflect confidence in Meta’s ability to leverage AI for continued growth, but they also acknowledge the risks posed by execution challenges, regulatory scrutiny, and the possibility of broader technology-sector corrections. Client sentiment, at least on the Capital.com platform, is overwhelmingly bullish: 95.1% of clients held long positions in Meta Platforms CFDs as of February 11, 2026. This concentrated positioning suggests strong conviction among retail traders, though it also raises the risk of sharp reversals if sentiment shifts. For Canadian investors—and indeed, anyone trading Meta shares outside the U.S.—currency risk is another factor to consider. Since most Canadian brokers quote U.S. listings in dollars, returns in local currency will fluctuate with USD/CAD movements. Meyka AI advises investors to “review account type, fees, and any tax considerations for U.S. securities,” and to have a written plan for managing foreign exchange exposure, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Despite a 1.71% year-to-date decline and a 10.76% drop over the past year, Meta’s stock remains up an impressive 269.79% over the past three years. That kind of performance is a testament to the company’s ability to reinvent itself—from a social media pioneer to an AI powerhouse—but it also sets a high bar for future growth. At a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 26.72 and a modest dividend yield of 0.33%, the stock’s valuation leaves little room for error if growth were to stumble. Ultimately, the question for investors is whether Meta can sustain its current trajectory. The company’s track record of innovation and revenue growth is undeniable, but the scale of its AI ambitions—and the associated capital requirements—make this a high-stakes bet. As Meyka AI succinctly put it, “AI is driving real gains, with a 24% lift in Meta advertising revenue tied to better targeting and faster creative through Llama 4 integration. The other side is execution on a $100B-plus infrastructure plan that must translate into higher ad yield and new AI services.” With earnings season just around the corner and the market’s eyes fixed on Meta’s next move, investors are left to weigh the promise of AI-fueled growth against the realities of cost, competition, and market sentiment. For now, Meta remains at the center of the conversation—a company that’s both defining and being defined by the relentless pace of technological change.