The Lawler Arena in North Andover, Massachusetts, is set for a classic MAAC showdown as the Merrimack Warriors host the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers on January 2, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 3:00 p.m. EST. Both programs are looking to make a statement as conference play heats up, and with Merrimack riding a three-game home winning streak, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Fans can catch all the action live on ESPN+.
Merrimack enters the contest as a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set between 135.5 and 140.5 points depending on the sportsbook. Oddsmakers and prediction models are leaning toward the Warriors, giving them a 65.1% chance to come out on top and a 55.4% edge to cover the spread. But with Mount St. Mary’s showing flashes of resilience and a knack for covering as underdogs, this game is anything but a foregone conclusion.
The Mountaineers, sporting a 5-9 overall record (1-2 MAAC), have had a rollercoaster of a season. Their offense has struggled, ranking among the lowest in the MAAC and nationally. Mount St. Mary’s turns the ball over on nearly 24% of possessions—a stat that leads all of Division I. That’s a staggering number, and it’s been a major hurdle in close games. As one analyst put it, "It’s hard to win games when your offense turns the ball over on nearly a quarter of possessions." The Mountaineers attempt 45% of their shots from beyond the arc but only connect on 33%, which is below the national average.
Despite these offensive woes, Mount St. Mary’s has some bright spots. Leading scorer Luke McEldon, the 6-foot-11 post presence, anchors the attack with 11.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. His frontcourt partner, Justin Amadi, provides additional size and scoring punch. However, turnovers and a lack of emphasis on feeding the post have limited their impact. The Mountaineers also average just 27% on offensive boards, making it tough to generate second-chance points.
On the defensive end, Mount St. Mary’s ranks 205th in efficiency. They’re solid at defending inside, holding opponents to 50.2% on two-pointers, but can be vulnerable from deep—opponents attempt 45% of their shots from three-point range. The Mountaineers’ key defensive playmakers include Xavier Lipscomb, who averages 4.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game, and Yakhya Diop, who leads with 0.8 blocks per contest. Arlandus Keyes is the team’s top three-point shooter, connecting on 2.7 triples per game.
Merrimack, with a 7-7 overall record (3-0 MAAC), is eager to defend its home court. The Warriors have been a tough out at Lawler Arena, and their recent 80-point outburst against Sacred Heart showcased a team capable of offensive fireworks. In that game, Merrimack scored 1.21 points per possession and drained 12 three-pointers—a performance described by pundits as an outlier for a squad that typically shoots just 30% from deep and 47% inside the arc.
Still, the Warriors have more offensive talent this season than in years past. Four players average nine or more points per game: Kevair Kennedy (15.4 PPG, 3.8 APG), Ernest Shelton (notching three triples per contest), Tye Dorset, and Andres Marrero. Kennedy, a shifty guard who lives in the lane, leads the charge, while Todd Brogna anchors the glass with 4.6 rebounds per game. KC Ugwuakazi is a defensive anchor, swatting away two shots per contest.
Defensively, Merrimack is known for its "make chaos" zone under head coach Joe Gallo. The Warriors force turnovers on 19% of possessions and have allowed just 66.2 points per game since the start of the 2023-24 season—the best mark in the MAAC. Their opponents shoot only 32% from three, another conference-best statistic. Still, the Warriors are only 225th in defensive efficiency and have struggled on the boards, averaging just 18.1 defensive rebounds per game (the lowest in the MAAC and second lowest nationally). This could be a concern against the Mountaineers’ sizeable frontcourt.
When it comes to betting trends, both teams have been unpredictable. Mount St. Mary’s boasts a 7-5 record against the spread this season, including a 4-2 mark when underdogs by 4.5 points or more. They’ve also hit the game total under in 22 of their last 36 games. Merrimack sits at 7-7 against the spread but has been a strong under play—hitting the game total under in 24 of their last 34 games. The combined average points per game for both teams is 134.3, below the typical over/under line for this matchup.
Looking back at recent history, Mount St. Mary’s swept last season’s series, winning both low-scoring affairs with totals of 124 and 112 points. That’s led many analysts to favor the under once again, with some predicting a final combined score in the 60s for each squad. "The Warriors will look to play slow, and the Mount turns it over an absurd amount. That should result in a relatively low-scoring contest," one preview noted.
Statistically, Merrimack’s scoring differential sits at -86, averaging 65.9 points for and 72 against per game. They make 8.3 threes per outing and have a negative rebounding margin, pulling down 23.4 boards to their opponents’ 37.6. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, have a -90 differential, scoring 68.4 points and allowing 74.8 per contest. They fare better on the glass, averaging 32.8 rebounds per game (1.6 more than their opponents), and knock down 8.4 threes per game.
As for pace and style, expect Merrimack to try to slow things down and capitalize on Mount St. Mary’s turnover issues. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, will need to leverage their size advantage and try to dominate inside, especially if they can limit mistakes and create second-chance opportunities. The matchup between Kennedy and McEldon could be pivotal, with each team relying on its stars to set the tone early.
With both teams looking to build momentum in MAAC play, this contest promises plenty of intrigue. Will Merrimack’s defense and home-court advantage be enough to stifle the Mountaineers, or can Mount St. Mary’s overcome its turnover woes and pull off the upset? The answer will unfold on the hardwood at Lawler Arena, as fans and bettors alike eagerly await the outcome of this closely watched conference clash.
