The 2026 ASB Classic in Auckland is heating up as Hamad Medjedovic and Jakub Mensik prepare to lock horns in a highly anticipated Round of 16 clash on Wednesday, January 14. Tennis fans will want to set their alarms early, as the match is slated to start at 2:55 AM Eastern Time (11:55 PM Pacific Time on January 13), promising a battle between two players at very different points in their careers but both hungry for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Medjedovic, currently ranked 96th in the world, enters the contest as the underdog, but that status hasn’t dampened his spirit or the intrigue surrounding this matchup. Facing him across the net will be Jakub Mensik, the 18th-ranked player globally, who comes in as the clear favorite with -135 odds, while Medjedovic’s moneyline sits at +105. For those with an eye on the tournament outcome, Medjedovic’s odds to take the whole event are +1200, compared to Mensik’s +700. The hard court surface at Auckland’s ASB Tennis Centre adds another dimension to the encounter, offering both players an opportunity to showcase their strengths in fast-paced exchanges.
Let’s dig into the numbers that have set the tennis world abuzz. Over the past year, Medjedovic has competed in 11 hard court tournaments, recording an 11-12 win-loss mark. His serve has been a reliable weapon, winning 77.9% of his service games, while his return game has yielded a respectable 24.3% win rate. Notably, he’s converted 40.7% of his break-point opportunities (44 out of 108), a stat that could prove crucial if he’s able to pressure Mensik’s serve.
Medjedovic’s last outing was at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, where he faced a tough break—retiring in the first round against Arthur Rinderknech after a tight opening set that ended 7-6. That early exit might have left a mark, but it also gives Medjedovic a chance to bounce back with renewed focus in Auckland. The Serbian’s journey over the past year has been marked by flashes of brilliance and moments where consistency slipped just out of reach. Still, his ability to fight on hard courts and his knack for converting break points suggest he can’t be counted out, even against a top-20 opponent.
On the other side of the net, Jakub Mensik brings a more consistent record to the table. In the same 11 hard court events, Mensik has put together a 16-10 record and even captured a tournament title along the way. His serve has been a fortress, with 253 wins in 315 service games for an impressive 80.3% success rate. Mensik’s return game is nearly identical to Medjedovic’s, winning 24.4% of his return games. His break-point conversion sits at 38.3% (59 out of 154), ranking him 59th on tour in that department. Mensik’s last appearance was also at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, where he fell to Jesper de Jong in a hard-fought Round of 64 contest, 6-4, 6-7, 4-6.
So, what do the experts and the odds say? According to Dimers’ advanced tennis prediction model, Mensik holds a 56% chance of winning the match and a 54% probability of taking the first set. The model also gives Mensik a 53% chance to cover the -1.5 games spread, while there’s a 58% likelihood that the match will finish with under 24.5 total games. These numbers paint a picture of a slight but clear edge for Mensik, though not so overwhelming as to discount Medjedovic’s upset potential.
Interestingly, despite the statistical edge for Mensik, some betting analysts have pegged Medjedovic as a strong pick to win the first set, citing his ability to start matches quickly and put pressure on higher-ranked opponents. With first set odds at +110 for Medjedovic and -139 for Mensik, there’s a sense that the opening exchanges could be pivotal. The best bet, according to one expert article, is on Medjedovic to take the first set—an outcome that could set the tone for the rest of the match and perhaps swing the momentum in his favor.
Beyond the numbers, the matchup tells a story of two players at different stages. Mensik, with his higher ranking and recent title, is looking to solidify his place among the elite, while Medjedovic is fighting to break through and prove he belongs on the big stage. Both suffered early exits in Shanghai, adding a dash of urgency to their Auckland campaigns. A win here would mean not just a berth in the quarterfinals, but a vital confidence boost as the season ramps up.
The head-to-head between Medjedovic and Mensik is shaped as much by their playing styles as by their stats. Medjedovic’s serve can be a game-changer, especially if he finds his rhythm early. Mensik, meanwhile, relies on consistency and tactical acumen, often wearing down opponents with relentless pressure and smart shot selection. On hard courts, those qualities become even more significant, as quick points and aggressive returns can turn the tide in a matter of minutes.
As for the broader context, the ASB Classic has long been a proving ground for emerging stars and established names alike. Past champions have used the event as a springboard for deeper runs in the season’s first Grand Slam, the Australian Open. For Medjedovic and Mensik, a strong showing in Auckland could be the spark that ignites a memorable year.
With betting odds, predictive models, and player stats all pointing to a tightly contested battle, fans are in for a treat. Will Mensik’s steadiness and higher seeding carry him through, or can Medjedovic defy the odds and upset the favorite? One thing’s for sure: both players have plenty to play for, and the margins will be razor-thin.
As the sun rises over Auckland on Wednesday, all eyes will be on the hard courts to see which player seizes the moment. With the match still ahead and the outcome hanging in the balance, tennis aficionados can only speculate and savor the anticipation. The Round of 16 clash between Medjedovic and Mensik promises intensity, drama, and perhaps a few surprises along the way.
